Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in France: evidence from cointegration analysis and Granger causality with using geostatistical models

This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961-2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locations and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledge is used for economic analyzes. In classical econometrics there do not exist any estimator which have the capability to find the best functional form in the estimation. Geostatistical models investigate simultaneous linear and various nonlinear types of causality test, which cause to decrease the effects of choosing functional form in autoregressive model. This approach imitates the Granger definition and structure but improve it to have better ability to investigate nonlinear causality. Results of both VEC and Improved-VEC (with geostatistical methods) are similar and show existance of long run unidirectional causality from exports and imports to economic growth. However the F-statistic of improved-VEC is larger than VEC indicating that there are some exponential and spherical functions in the VEC structure instead of the linear form.Granger causality; Exports; Imports; Economic growth; Geostatistical model; Kiriging; Inverse distance weighting; Vector auto-regression; France

Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 214:Longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequality

This paper considers the characterisation and measurement of income-related health inequality using longitudinal data. The paper elucidates the nature of the Jones and Lopez Nicholas (2004) index of “health-related income mobility” and explains the negative values of the index that have been reported in all the empirical applications to date. The paper further questions the value of their index to health policymakers and proposes an alternative index of “income-related health mobility” that measures whether the pattern of health changes is biased in favour of those with initially high or low incomes. We illustrate our work by investigating mobility in the General Health Questionnaire measure of psychological well-being over the first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 1999

A new approach for estimation of long-run relationships in economic analysis using Engle-Granger and artificial intelligence methods

In time series analysis, most estimation of relationships and tests are typically based on linear estimators and most classical co-integration methods and causality tests are based on OLS regresses. However the linear functional specification is not necessarily the most appropriate form. This paper breaks the ordinary rules in econometrics and makes use of time series with artificial intelligence methods, testing for existence of nonlinear relationship. We illustrate the testing exercise using two examples based on OECD health data. In our illustration we confirm that improved nonlinear AEG and VEC, significantly, have a better ability to identify long run co-integration and causal relationships than ordinary linear ones. Ordinary methods and improved-nonlinear methods demonstrate similar results if the variables in a model are approximately linear

Societal costs of air pollution-related health hazards: A review of methods and results

This paper aims to provide a critical and systematic review of the societal costs of air pollution-related ill health (CAP), to explore methodological issues that may be important when assessing or comparing CAP across countries and to suggest ways in which future CAP studies can be made more useful for policy analysis. The methodology includes a systematic search based on the major electronic databases and the websites of a number of major international organizations. Studies are categorized by origin – OECD countries or non-OECD countries – and by publication status. Seventeen studies are included, eight from OECD countries and nine from non-OECD countries. A number of studies based on the ExternE methodology and the USA studies conducted by the Institute of Transportation are also summarized and discussed separately. The present review shows that considerable societal costs are attributable to air pollution-related health hazards. Nevertheless, given the variations in the methodologies used to calculate the estimated costs (e.g. cost estimation methods and cost components included), and inter-country differences in demographic composition and health care systems, it is difficult to compare CAP estimates across studies and countries. To increase awareness concerning the air pollution-related burden of disease, and to build links to health policy analyses, future research efforts should be directed towards theoretically sound and comprehensive CAP estimates with use of rich data. In particular, a more explicit approach should be followed to deal with uncertainties in the estimations. Along with monetary estimates, future research should also report all physical impacts and source-specific cost estimates, and should attempt to estimate 'avoidable cost' using alternative counterfactual scenarios

Medical net cost of low alcohol consumption - a cause to reconsider improved health as the link between alcohol and wage?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies have found a positive effect of low/moderate alcohol consumption on wages. This has often been explained by referring to epidemiological research showing that alcohol has protective effects on certain diseases, i.e., the health link is normally justified using selected epidemiological information. Few papers have tested this link between alcohol and health explicitly, including all diseases where alcohol has been shown to have either a protective or a detrimental effect.</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>Based on the full epidemiological information, we study the effect of low alcohol consumption on health, in order to determine if it is reasonable to explain the positive effect of low consumption on wages using the epidemiological literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We apply a non-econometrical cost-of-illness approach to calculate the medical care cost and episodes attributable to low alcohol consumption.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Low alcohol consumption carries a net cost for medical care and there is a net benefit only for the oldest age group (80+). Low alcohol consumption also causes more episodes in medical care then what is saved, although inpatient care for women and older men show savings.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using health as an explanation in the alcohol-wage literature appears invalid when applying the full epidemiological information instead of selected information.</p

Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in France: evidence from cointegration analysis and Granger causality with using geostatistical models

This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961-2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locations and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledge is used for economic analyzes. In classical econometrics there do not exist any estimator which have the capability to find the best functional form in the estimation. Geostatistical models investigate simultaneous linear and various nonlinear types of causality test, which cause to decrease the effects of choosing functional form in autoregressive model. This approach imitates the Granger definition and structure but improve it to have better ability to investigate nonlinear causality. Results of both VEC and Improved-VEC (with geostatistical methods) are similar and show existance of long run unidirectional causality from exports and imports to economic growth. However the F-statistic of improved-VEC is larger than VEC indicating that there are some exponential and spherical functions in the VEC structure instead of the linear form

Health financing for the poor produces promising short-term effects on utilization and out-of-pocket expenditure: evidence from Vietnam

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Vietnam introduced the Health Care Fund for the Poor in 2002 to increase access to health care and reduce the financial burden of health expenditure faced by the poor and ethnic minorities. It is often argued that effects of financing reforms take a long time to materialize. This study evaluates the short-term impact of the program to determine if pro-poor financing programs can achieve immediate effects on health care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditure.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Considering that the program is a non-random policy initiative rolled out nationally, we apply propensity score matching with both single differences and double differences to data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys 2002 (pre-program data) and 2004 (first post-program data).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find a small, positive impact on overall health care utilization. We find evidence of two substitution effects: from private to public providers and from primary to secondary and tertiary level care. Finally, we find a strong negative impact on out-of-pocket health expenditure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results indicate that the Health Care Fund for the Poor is meeting its objectives of increasing utilization and reducing out-of-pocket expenditure for the program's target population, despite numerous administrative problems resulting in delayed and only partial implementation in most provinces. The main lessons for low and middle-income countries from Vietnam's early experiences with the Health Care Fund for the Poor are that it managed to achieve positive outcomes in a short time-period, the need to ensure adequate and sustained funding for targeted programs, including marginal administrative costs, develop effective targeting mechanisms and systems for informing beneficiaries and providers about the program, respond to the increased demand for health care generated by the program, address indirect costs of health care utilization, and establish and maintain routine and systematic monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.</p