The eddy heat flux as a key for better understanding of the Arctic climate system

第6回極域科学シンポジウム特別セッション：[S] 北極温暖化とその影響 ―GRENE 北極気候変動プロジェクトと新しい方向性―11月18日（水）　国立極地研究所 2階 大会議

The linkage between Arctic sea ice changes and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in reanalysis data and model simulations— The role of barotropic-baroclinic interactions

bserved global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic regions, a phenomenon referred to as Arctic Amplification. Consequently, Arctic sea ice shows a strong decreasing trend. These changes imprint modifications on atmospheric flow patterns not only in Arctic regions themselves. Changes of teleconnections and planetary scale motions like Rossby wave trains affect mid-latitude climate as well. In extension to the studies by Jaiser et al. (abstract submitted) here we study the impact of sea-ice changes on changes in atmospheric synoptic and planetary waves. Therefore, we analyse the atmospheric kinetic energy spectra for ERA-Interim reanalysis and the properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with prescribed sea-ice changes (cf. abstract by Jaiser et al.). Special emphasis has been put on the the role of barotropic-baroclinic interactions and corresponding changes in the tropospheric planetary wave trains by examining the nonlinear kinetic energy and enstrophy interaction and subsequent redistribution of kinetic energy and enstrophy

Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations - The role of troposphere-stratosphere coupling

In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERAInterim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems

The linkage between Arctic sea ice changes and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in reanalysis data and model simulations - The role of tropo-stratospheric coupling

Observed global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic regions, a phenomenon referred to as Arctic Amplification. Consequently, Arctic sea ice shows a strong decreasing trend. These changes imprint modifications on atmospheric flow patterns not only in Arctic regions themselves. Changes of teleconnections and planetary scale motions like Rossby waves affect mid-latitude climate as well. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to weakening events of the stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies then propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to entirely dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. More importantly, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This includes the potential mechanism explaining how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. A further examination of barotropic-baroclinic interactions based on nonlinear kinetic energy and enstrophy interaction will be given by Handorf et al. (abstract submitted)

Thin Sea-Ice Thickness as Inferred from Passive Microwave and In Situ Observations

Since microwave radiometric signals from sea-ice strongly reflect physical conditions of a layer near the ice surface, a relationship of brightness temperature with thickness is possible especially during the early stages of ice growth. Sea ice is most saline during formation stage and as the salinity decreases with time while at the same time the thickness of the sea ice increases, a corresponding change in the dielectric properties and hence the brightness temperature may occur. This study examines the extent to which the relationships of thickness with brightness temperature (and with emissivity) hold for thin sea-ice, approximately less than 0.2 -0.3 m, using near concurrent measurements of sea-ice thickness in the Sea of Okhotsk from a ship and passive microwave brightness temperature data from an over-flying aircraft. The results show that the brightness temperature and emissivity increase with ice thickness for the frequency range of 10-37 GHz. The relationship is more pronounced at lower frequencies and at the horizontal polarization. We also established an empirical relationship between ice thickness and salinity in the layer near the ice surface from a field experiment, which qualitatively support the idea that changes in the near-surface brine characteristics contribute to the observed thickness-brightness temperature/emissivity relationship. Our results suggest that for thin ice, passive microwave radiometric signals contain, ice thickness information which can be utilized in polar process studies

Physical and Radiative Characteristic and Long-term Variability of the Okhotsk Sea Ice Cover

Much of what we know about the large scale characteristics of the Okhotsk Sea ice cover has been provided by ice concentration maps derived from passive microwave data. To understand what satellite data represent in a highly divergent and rapidly changing environment like the Okhotsk Sea, we take advantage of concurrent satellite, aircraft, and ship data acquired on 7 February and characterized the sea ice cover at different scales from meters to hundreds of kilometers. Through comparative analysis of surface features using co-registered data from visible, infrared and microwave channels we evaluated the general radiative and physical characteristics of the ice cover as well as quantify the distribution of different ice types in the region. Ice concentration maps from AMSR-E using the standard sets of channels, and also only the 89 GHz channel for optimal resolution, are compared with aircraft and high resolution visible data and while the standard set provides consistent results, the 89 GHz provides the means to observe mesoscale patterns and some unique features of the ice cover. Analysis of MODIS data reveals that thick ice types represents about 37% of the ice cover indicating that young and new ice types represent a large fraction of the ice cover that averages about 90% ice concentration according to passive microwave data. These results are used to interpret historical data that indicate that the Okhotsk Sea ice extent and area are declining at a rapid rate of about -9% and -12 % per decade, respectively

Physical and Radiative Characteristics and Long Term Variability of the Okhotsk Sea Ice Cover

Much of what we know about the large scale characteristics of the Okhotsk Sea ice cover comes from ice concentration maps derived from passive microwave data. To understand what these satellite data represents in a highly divergent and rapidly changing environment like the Okhotsk Sea, we analyzed concurrent satellite, aircraft, and ship data and characterized the sea ice cover at different scales from meters to tens of kilometers. Through comparative analysis of surface features using co-registered data from visible, infrared and microwave channels we evaluated how the general radiative and physical characteristics of the ice cover changes as well as quantify the distribution of different ice types in the region. Ice concentration maps from AMSR-E using the standard sets of channels, and also only the 89 GHz channel for optimal resolution, are compared with aircraft and high resolution visible data and while the standard set provides consistent results, the 89 GHz provides the means to observe mesoscale patterns and some unique features of the ice cover. Analysis of MODIS data reveals that thick ice types represents about 37% of the ice cover indicating that young and new ice represent a large fraction of the lice cover that averages about 90% ice concentration, according to passive microwave data. A rapid decline of -9% and -12 % per decade is observed suggesting warming signals but further studies are required because of aforementioned characteristics and because the length of the ice season is decreasing by only 2 to 4 days per decade