Quantifying O₃ Impacts in Urban Areas Due to Wildfires Using a Generalized Additive Model

Wildfires emit O₃ precursors but there are large variations in emissions, plume heights, and photochemical processing. These factors make it challenging to model O₃ production from wildfires using Eulerian models. Here we describe a statistical approach to characterize the maximum daily 8-h average O₃ (MDA8) for 8 cities in the U.S. for typical, nonfire, conditions. The statistical model represents between 35% and 81% of the variance in MDA8 for each city. We then examine the residual from the model under conditions with elevated particulate matter (PM) and satellite observed smoke (“smoke days”). For these days, the residuals are elevated by an average of 3–8 ppb (MDA8) compared to nonsmoke days. We found that while smoke days are only 4.1% of all days (May–Sept) they are 19% of days with an MDA8 greater than 75 ppb. We also show that a published method that does not account for transport patterns gives rise to large overestimates in the amount of O₃ from fires, particularly for coastal cities. Finally, we apply this method to a case study from August 2015, and show that the method gives results that are directly applicable to the EPA guidance on excluding data due to an uncontrollable source

Biomass Burning Smoke Climatology of the United States: Implications for Particulate Matter Air Quality

We utilize the NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke product for the period of 2005 to 2016 to develop climatology of smoke occurrence over the Continental United States (CONUS) region and to study the impact of wildland fires on particulate matter air quality at the surface. Our results indicate that smoke is most frequently found over the Great Plains and western states during the summer months. Other hotspots of smoke occurrence are found over state and national parks in the southeast during winter and spring, in the Gulf of Mexico southwards of the Texas and Louisiana coastline during spring season and along the Mississippi River Delta during the fall season. A substantial portion (20%) of the 24 h federal standard for particulate pollution exceedance events in the CONUS region occur when smoke is present. If the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations continue to reduce anthropogenic emissions, wildland fire emissions will become the major contributor to particulate pollution and exceedance events. In this context, we show that HMS smoke product is a valuable tool for analysis of exceptional events caused by wildland fires and our results indicate that these tools can be valuable for policy and decision makers