An Application of Time Series Analysis in Modeling Monthly Rainfall Data for Maiduguri, North Eastern Nigeria

Time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications in meteorological phenomena such as rainfall, humidity, temperature, draught and so on; and environmental fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, Box-Jenkins methodology was used to model monthly rainfall data taken from Maiduguri Airport Station for the period from 1981 to 2011 with a total of 372 readings. ARIMA (1, 1,0) model was developed. This model was used to forecast monthly rainfall for the upcoming 44 months (3 years 8 months) to help decision makers establish priorities in terms of water demand management and agriculture. Thus, ARIMA (1, 1,0) provides a good fit for the rainfall data of Maiduguri and is appropriate for short term forecast.Key Words: Time Series Analysis, Rainfall Model, Forecasting, ARIMA

Merging business process models

This paper addresses the following problem: given two business process models, create a process model that is the union of the process models given as input. In other words, the behavior of the produced process model should encompass that of the input models. The paper describes an algorithm that produces a single configurable process model from a pair of process models. The algorithm works by extracting the common parts of the input process models, creating a single copy of them, and appending the differences as branches of configurable connectors. This way, the merged process model is kept as small as possible, while still capturing all the behavior of the input models. Moreover, analysts are able to trace back which model(s) a given element in the merged model originates from. The algorithm has been prototyped and tested against process models taken from several application domains

Microbial Spectrum Of Pelvic Inflamatory Diseases In Nguru, Nigeria

Pelvic inflammatory diseases, a leading gynecological problem worldwide, are associated with socio-economic and psychological costs. A retrospective study of 1350 high vaginal swabs analyzed between Jan-Dec. 2005, showed that 845 (62.8%) were positive for 9 microorganisms by culture/or wet preparation. Microbial growth was found in 645 (76.3%) cases. Polymicrobial growth was found in 90 (10.7%), fungal growth in 110 (13.0%) cases, and 3(0.4%) yielded anaerobic growth. Staphylococcus aureus accounted for 355 (42.0%) cases, followed by Escherichia coli 190 (22.5%), Trichomonas vaginalis 100 (11.8%) Candida spp and Neisseria gonorrhoeae 70 (8.3) and the least, Pseudomonas spp 5 (0.6%) Microbial-associated infection was prominent in the group 21-30 years old (46.6%) and 31-40 (23.9%) years respectively. Antibiotic susceptibility pattern showed that mean susceptibility greater than 50% were recorded with ofloxacin 80%, ceftazidime 80%, rifampicin 81.9% compared to mean susceptibility less that 50% recorded with trimethoprim-sulthamethoxazole 34.7%, and ampicillin 26.1%. In conclusion, the reported microbial-associated infection in PID with a prevalence of 62.8% is of public health importance. Early diagnosis of causative agents and prompt institution of chemotherapeutic agents will help to prevent clinical complications that are expensive to treat. Keywords: pelvic inflammatory diseases, microorganisms, antibiotic susceptibility. African Journal of Clinical and Experimental Microbiology Vol. 9 (3) 2008: pp. 157-16

Bacteriological assessment of some borehole water samples in Mile 50, Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Water as excellent natural resource is meant to be of high quality to reduce the outbreak of water-borne diseases. Bacteriological load of some borehole water samples in Mile 50 Abakaliki were carried out to determine their potability. Fifteen borehole water samples were sampled during rainy and dry season from June to July and November to December 2018 respectively. The total bacterial count was determined by tenfold serial dilution method using peptone water. Eight bacterial species namely Vibrio cholerae, Pseudomonas aeroginosa, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella typhi, Shigella flexineri, Proteus vulgaris and Klebsiella  pneumoniaewere isolated using standard analytical procedures. The bacterium that had the highest frequency of occurrence during both rainy and dry season’s was K. pneumoniae with percentage frequency of  21.81% and 20.79%  respectively, and P. vulgaris had the least value of 6.96% during rainy season. E. coli and S. aureus have the least value of 5.94% during dry season. Amoxicillin (30ug) was mostly resisted by the bacterial isolates why being was more susceptible to Ciprofloxacin (10ug) among the antibiotics used for susceptibility test. Two way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the level of significance among the bacteriological analyses of both seasons. Therefore, there is need to create awareness about the present situation of the borehole waters and the necessity for further treatment of water by consumers, before it can be used for both drinking and domestic purposes to prevent disease outbreak in the area

Avaliação do rendimento forrageiro de milheto (Pennisetun glaucum) em plantio consorciado com capim Piatã (Brachiaria brizantha) e capim Massai (Panicum maximum).

Objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar o rendimento forrageiro do plantio consorciado de Milheto (Pennisetum glaucum) com os capins Piatã (Brachiaria brizantha) e Massai (Panicum maximum). Foi utilizado um delineamento em blocos casualizados com dois tratamentos e dezesseis repetições. Os tratamentos consistiram do plantio consorciados de Milheto cv. Piatã e Milheto cv. BRS 1501 com campim Massai. Foram avaliados o número de plantas, a altura e a produção de matéria seca de forragem em dois cortes. Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância seguindo o DBC e as médias comparadas pelo teste e Tukey a 5% de probabilidade. O plantio consorciado de Milheto com os capins Massai e Piatã apresentou grande produção de forragem (4.250 kg ha-1 de matéria seca) e mostrou ser uma tecnologia viável para a implantação e reforma de pastagens perenes. Sugere-se a realização de novos estudos visando avaliar a densidade de plantas de Milheto que integre a alta produção de forragem com o melhor desenvolvimento do capim

Rendimento forrageiro de milheto, capim Piatã e capim Massai em plantios consorciados e solteiros.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o rendimento forrageiro do Milheto BR 1501 (Pennisetum glaucum). Piatã (Brachiaria brizantha) e Massai (Panicum maximum) em plantios consorciados e solteiros. Os tratamentos consistiram de: T1-Milheto + Piatã (7 kg ha-1 + 10 kg ha-1 de sementes, respectivamente); T2-Milheto + Massai (7 kg ha-1 + 12 kg ha-1 de sementes, respectivamente); T3-Milheto solteiro (7 kg ha-1 de sementes); T4 Piatã (10kg ha-1 de sementes); T5-Massai (12 kgha-1 de sementes). Foram realizados dois cortes em cada parcela, aos 44 e 69 dias após o plantio. Em cada corte foi avaliado o estande, altura de plantas e a produção da matéria seca da fitomassa de forragem. O delineamento experimental foi o de blocos ao acaso com cinco tratamentos e quatro repetições. Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e médias comparadas pelo teste Tukey a 5%. Não observou-se diferença para o número de plantas, altura e produtividade nos tratamentos com Milheto solteiro e consorciado com capim Massai e Piatã. Entre as consorciações, embora não apresente diferença significativ há uma tendência de maiores valores para as variáveis avaliadas quando da consorciação do Milheto com capim Piatã. Uma maior produção foi observada para os capins quando em plantio solteiro. A produção total de matéria seca foi superior quando da consorciação do Milheto com ambos capins

Produção de forragem e características morfológicas de pastagens de Brachiaria Xaraés sob plantio solteiro e consorciado.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar produção de forragem e características morfológicas de pastagens de Brachiaria Xaraés em plantios solteiros e consorciado com milho. O delineamento experimental foi o de blocos ao acaso, com dois tratamentos e dois blocos com sete repetições em cada bloco. Os tratamentos foram Brachiaria Xaraés em plantio solteiro e Brachiaria Xaraés consorciada com híbrido BRS 1030, em sistema de plantio direto. Estimou-se a massa de forragem, cortando a 20 cm do solo 4 amostras de 1m2, em cada parcela experimental, que foram divididas em duas subamostras, sendo uma secada e pesada, e outra separada em lâmina foliar, colmo (bainha e colmo) e material morto. Os resultados foram expressos em Massa de Matéria Seca (MMS), relação folha/colmo (F/Co) e a proporção de cada componente morfológico foi expressa como percentagem do peso total. Os resultados foram avaliados por meio da análise de variância e as médias comparadas pelo teste de Tukey a nível de 5% de probabilidade. A massa de forragem da cultivar Xaraés foi superior quando do cultivo solteiro. Houve uma redução de 57,5% na produção de forragem quando em plantio consorciado com milho. No plantio consorciado obteve-se uma produção de milho de 5,754 kg ha-1. Não houve diferença estatística entre os tratamentos para as percentagens de lâmina foliar, material morto e relação folha/colmo. A pastagem apresentou uma elevada percentagem de colmos e material morto para ambos tratamentos

Magnetic properties of X-Pt (X=Fe,Co,Ni) alloy systems

We have studied the electronic and magnetic properties of Fe-Pt, Co-Pt and Ni-Pt alloy systems in ordered and disordered phases. The influence of various exchange-correlation functionals on values of equilibrium lattice parameters and magnetic moments in ordered Fe-Pt, Co-Pt and Ni-Pt alloys have been studied using linearized muffin-tin orbital method. The electronic structure calculations for the disordered alloys have been carried out using augmented space recursion technique in the framework of tight binding linearized muffin-tin orbital method. The effect of short range order has also been studied in the disordered phase of these systems. The results show good agreements with available experimental values.Comment: 21 pages, 4 eps figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Physics Condensed Matte