Potato demand in an increasingly organic marketplace

The authors investigate pricing and demand issues for four fresh potato categories (russet, red, white, and minor colored), organic fresh potatoes, and two processed potato categories (frozen|refrigerated and dehydrated) using a nonlinear generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS) that is closed under unit scaling (CUUS). The model used regionally aggregated at-home consumption data from 2000 to 2005. Estimated uncompensated own price elasticities for fresh potatoes were highly significant and ranged between −0.5 and −1.6. The study was designed to capture the effects of the aggregate organic market on the prices, expenditures, and demand for each potato category. Organic food market penetration elasticities suggest that specialty potatoes (organic and minor-colored) are particularly well positioned if demands for organic products continue to rise, red potatoes are not well positioned and evidence of the early warning signs of slippage in market share for white and russet potatoes may exist. Producers and promoters of conventional potato products should account for the increasingly important role of organic products in making decisions. As an auxiliary exercise, we also statistically sourced the variance of the organic potato price premium relative to the other four fresh potato prices. At the present time, the variability of the organic potato premium is not much affected by production costs or other supply-related factors: the premium variability was driven largely by demand, and demographic|seasonal factors. Producers should be cautious about shifting to organic potato production until lower cost practices emerge. [JEL Codes: D120, Q130, Q180]. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of pork-borne salmonellosis in humans: Lessons for risk ranking

A food systems perspective offers many appealing analytic features to food safety researchers with an interest in the design and targeting of effective and efficient policy responses to the risks posed by foodborne pathogens. These features include the ability to examine comparative questions such as whether it is more efficient to target food safety interventions on-farm or in the food processing plant. Using the example of a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of Salmonella in the pork production and consumption system, the authors argue the feasibility of such a food systems approach for food-safety risk assessment and policy analysis. They present an overview of the farm-to-fork model and highlight key assumptions and methods employed. Lessons from their experience in constructing a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model are derived for consideration in other food safety risk assessment efforts and for researchers interested in developing “best practice” benchmarks in the area of food safety risk assessments. [EconLit Citations: Q18, I18, I12]. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 23: 157-172, 2007.

The CAP reform and EC-US relations : the GATT as a cap on the CAP

Diffusion du document : INRA station d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales Unité Politique Agricole et Modélisation 65 rue de Saint Brieuc 35042 RENNES (FRA)Cet article examine les relations agricoles entre les États-Unis et la Communauté européenne dans la perspective d'un accord au GATT. Nous montrons que le GATT devrait permettre aux pays de modifier leurs politiques agricoles et que les forces intérieures ne permettraient pas à elles seules, d'aboutir à de telles réformes. L'attention est centrée sur la Politique Agricole de la Communauté et sur la définition d'une politique encore plus "découplée"

A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050

The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper-bound (highconsumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing-in additional forestdominated lands.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-84892016-10-31hb201