87 research outputs found

    The Mediterranean Fruit Fly and the United States: Is the Probit 9 Level of Quarantine Security Efficient?

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    "Cold treatment periods, and associated levels of quarantine security, that maximize net US welfare under USDA's current medfly detection and control program are examined using a deterministic bioeconomic optimization model"". As anticipated, the efficient level of quarantine security is shown to increase with indices of medfly pressure (initial infestation rates) in areas in which the medfly is known to exist (the QCs)"". Efficient cold treatment periods and weighted mean medfly survival rates are 8, 11, and 12 days and 5.0 ďż˝ 10-super--2, 1.7 ďż˝ 10-super--3, and 5.2 ďż˝ 10-super--4 under low, moderate, and high initial infestation rates, respectively. When model output is averaged across initial infestation rates, an 11-day cold treatment period, resulting in a weighted mean medfly survival rate of 1.6 ďż˝ 10-super--3, maximizes US welfare. These findings suggest that the current minimum cold treatment period of 14 days and the current objective of US cold treatment policy-the probit 9 level of quarantine security-are economically inefficient. Adopting the 11-day cold treatment period is shown to increase US social surplus by an annual 24.9million,ofwhich24.9 million, of which 21.5 and 3.4millionwouldaccruetoUSconsumersandproducers,respectively,andQCproducersurplusbyanannual3.4 million would accrue to US consumers and producers, respectively, and QC producer surplus by an annual 24.8 million." Copyright 2007 Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.

    A farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of pork-borne salmonellosis in humans: Lessons for risk ranking

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    A food systems perspective offers many appealing analytic features to food safety researchers with an interest in the design and targeting of effective and efficient policy responses to the risks posed by foodborne pathogens. These features include the ability to examine comparative questions such as whether it is more efficient to target food safety interventions on-farm or in the food processing plant. Using the example of a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of Salmonella in the pork production and consumption system, the authors argue the feasibility of such a food systems approach for food-safety risk assessment and policy analysis. They present an overview of the farm-to-fork model and highlight key assumptions and methods employed. Lessons from their experience in constructing a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model are derived for consideration in other food safety risk assessment efforts and for researchers interested in developing “best practice” benchmarks in the area of food safety risk assessments. [EconLit Citations: Q18, I18, I12]. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 23: 157-172, 2007.
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