Epidemic Spruce Beetle Outbreak Changes Drivers of Engelmann Spruce Regeneration

Climate‐mediated disturbances outside the range of historical variability can have severe consequences on vital, post‐disturbance regeneration processes. High‐elevation forests of the Rocky Mountains that are dominated by Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Additionally, these forests have experienced recent epidemic spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks that have often resulted in \u3e95% mortality of overstory Engelmann spruce. Therefore, the future distribution of Engelmann spruce forests depends largely on natural regeneration processes. We examined Engelmann spruce seedlings across gradients in soil moisture and stand structural conditions 20 yr post‐disturbance on the Markagunt Plateau in southern Utah. All Engelmann spruce seedlings were mapped, measured, and aged, and aspects of stand structure and the microclimate were measured. The goal of our research was to infer processes affecting Engelmann spruce establishment by determining if patterns of advance regeneration that established before the outbreak (~60% of individuals) differed from seedlings that established during and immediately following the outbreak (combined into one group, ~40% of individuals). A generalized linear multi‐model approach identified that the density of advance regeneration (seedlings/saplings) was negatively influenced by historical competition with overstory trees. In contrast, post‐outbreak regeneration was related to microclimate conditions, including positive relationships with climatic moisture deficit and July soil water content. All seedlings were not significantly clustered around Engelmann spruce snags; however, there was evidence of facilitation of post‐outbreak seedlings by pre‐outbreak seedlings at higher elevation sites with lower moisture deficit. Together, these findings suggest post‐outbreak seedlings were not moisture‐limited at lower elevations but instead encouraged by higher evapotranspiration. Moreover, facilitation at higher elevations likely resulted from how pre‐outbreak seedlings modify snowpack and associated seedbed environments. Our study provides insight for managing Engelmann spruce after a beetle outbreak. In these forests, pre‐ and post‐outbreak regeneration can increase resilience to climate–disturbance interactions, but are patchy and structured at different scales. Therefore, the presence of advance regeneration and the likelihood of post‐outbreak seedlings depend on local environment (soil moisture and stand structure) and could be taken into account to most effectively plan post‐disturbance planting activities

Correction of Measurement Error in Monthly USDA Pig Crop: Generating Alternative Data Series

The imputed pig death loss contained in the reported monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pig crop data over the December 1995–June 2006 period ranged from 24.93% to 12.75%. Clearly, there are substantial measurement errors in the USDA monthly pig crop data. In this paper, we present alternative monthly U.S. pig crop data using the biological production process, which is compatible with prior knowledge of the U.S. hog industry. Alternative pig crop data are applied to a slaughter hog model and tested comparatively to USDA pig crop. Test results reject the validity of USDA pig crop data in favor of the alternative data.biological production process, measurement error, monthly USDA pig crop data, pig death loss, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Q11, Q13, C12,

Breeding Research and Education Needs Assessment for Organic Vegetable Growers in the Northeast

This work was supported by U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) Competitive Grant 2014-67013-22409

The Integration of Alternative Information Systems: An Application to the Hogs and Pigs Report

Two competing econometric models of the U.S. pork sector augment the initial U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates of the U.S. Hogs kept for breeding with market information. The first incorporates the rational expectation hypothesis and the second uses futures market prices as the expectation mechanism. By using alternative composite forecasting methods, the model forecasts are weighted optimally with the initial USDA estimates. The results show that the USDA could use this cost-effective method to improve the accuracy of the initial estimates of the U.S. hogs kept for breeding by over 20 percent

US Secretary of Agriculture: Role in the 21st Century Food System

The position of U.S. Secretary of Agriculture has a long, rich history that began several years after creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 1862. The department was created by President Abraham Lincoln, "to distribute seeds and agricultural information" to U.S. citizens. Lincoln referred to USDA as the "People's Department" because 90 percent of the population was farmers and farm families who needed "good seed and information to grow crops" for their own food and fiber. Farmers still require good information, but the landscape of the department that provides it has changed dramatically. USDA did not attain cabinet status until nearly three decades after Lincoln established it. At that time, half of the nation's workforce were farmers. Most farm commodities were used on the farm or sold domestically. Today, more than 100 years after the first Secretary was named, less than 2 percent of the U.S. labor force is involved in farming. Most Americans now live in metropolitan areas of more than one million people. Farm commodities still are used on the farm and sold in domestic markets, but about one-third now is shipped overseas. USDA still serves farmers' needs, but the department also is responsible for other programs. In fact, about 40 percent of USDA employees work for the U.S. Forest Service, and more than half of the annual budget is spent on domestic food and nutrition programs, such as school lunches and food stamps. "The constituency remains more 'farmer' than anything, but as Secretary you have to view the needs of the whole department," says John Block, USDA Secretary from 1981-1986. "There are less politics within the Secretary of Agriculture's office than in other Cabinet positions, but still some politics.

Policy Announcements

The current CRP debate has forced the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to make some statements about the future of the CRP

EVALUATION OF EXTENSION AND USDA PRICE AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS

This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features and accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accurate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate for crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either extension or USDA forecasts.Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Changing times for animal damage control

At present, the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is in the process of taking over the national animal damage control program from the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. I discuss the history of the federal animal damage control program with the U.S. Department of Agriculture beginning in the late 1800s. Once USDA assumes full control of the present program, the areas of emphasis will be cooperative operational control, research, and informational and educational efforts. For the first time, the program will have a Secretary’s advisory committee on ADC. An interdepartmental policy committee chaired by APHIS will involve other USDA agencies: Forest Service, Extension Service, Economic Research Service, Agricultural Research Service, and Cooperative State Research Service. Details of future efforts in research, and in information and education, are discussed

A Rational Risk Policy for Regulating Plant Diseases and Pests

Diseases and pests pose risks to U.S. agriculture and forests, but regulations and quarantines to control these risks are costly. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issues rules to control these risks based on economic analyses that do not take adequate account of links between risks and policy outcomes. A benefit-cost analysis that fully incorporates both the risk of a disease outbreak and the effect of regulations and quarantines on such risk can yield quite different conclusions. We apply methods that combine probabilistic risk assessments with economic analysis. We show that if USDA had incorporated risk into its benefit-cost analysis of Karnal bunt, a disease affecting wheat, it would have reached different conclusions about the impact of its actions. We estimate that suboptimal regulatory decisions in the case of Karnal bunt cost between $350 million and$390 million per year. We recommend that USDA incorporate risk assessments into its economic analyses of proposed regulations.

ILLINOIS RECREATIONAL ACCESS PROGRAM [funded]

The Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) received a $525,250 grant award on September 24, 2010 from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency\u27 Voluntary Public Access andHabitat Improvement Program (VPA-HIP) to develop and implement an Illinois Recreational Access Program (IRAP)