Prevalence dependent calibration of a predictive model for nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Background Published models predicting nasal colonization with Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among hospital admissions predominantly focus on separation of carriers from non-carriers and are frequently evaluated using measures of discrimination. In contrast, accurate estimation of carriage probability, which may inform decisions regarding treatment and infection control, is rarely assessed. Furthermore, no published models adjust for MRSA prevalence. Methods Using logistic regression, a scoring system (values from 0 to 200) predicting nasal carriage of MRSA was created using a derivation cohort of 3091 individuals admitted to a European tertiary referral center between July 2007 and March 2008. The expected positive predictive value of a rapid diagnostic test (GeneOhm, Becton & Dickinson Co.) was modeled using non-linear regression according to score. Models were validated on a second cohort from the same hospital consisting of 2043 patients admitted between August 2008 and January 2012. Our suggested correction score for prevalence was proportional to the log-transformed odds ratio between cohorts. Calibration before and after correction, i.e. accurate classification into arbitrary strata, was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow-Test. Results Treating culture as reference, the rapid diagnostic test had positive predictive values of 64.8% and 54.0% in derivation and internal validation corhorts with prevalences of 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively. In addition to low prevalence, low positive predictive values were due to high proportion (> 66%) of mecA-negative Staphylococcus aureus among false positive results. Age, nursing home residence, admission through the medical emergency department, and ICD-10-GM admission diagnoses starting with “A” or “J” were associated with MRSA carriage and were thus included in the scoring system, which showed good calibration in predicting probability of carriage and the rapid diagnostic test’s expected positive predictive value. Calibration for both probability of carriage and expected positive predictive value in the internal validation cohort was improved by applying the correction score. Conclusions Given a set of patient parameters, the presented models accurately predict a) probability of nasal carriage of MRSA and b) a rapid diagnostic test’s expected positive predictive value. While the former can inform decisions regarding empiric antibiotic treatment and infection control, the latter can influence choice of screening method

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in a patient post allo-HCT successfully treated with JC virus specific donor lymphocytes

Background Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy is a demyelinating CNS disorder. Reactivation of John Cunningham virus leads to oligodendrocyte infection with lysis and consequent axonal loss due to demyelination. Patients usually present with confusion and seizures. Late diagnosis and lack of adequate therapy options persistently result in permanent impairment of brain functions. Due to profound T cell depletion, impairment of T-cell function and potent immunosuppressive factors, allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation recipients are at high risk for JCV reactivation. To date, PML is almost universally fatal when occurring after allo-HCT. Methods To optimize therapy specificity, we enriched JCV specific T-cells out of the donor T-cell repertoire from the HLA-identical, anti-JCV-antibody positive family stem cell donor by unstimulated peripheral apheresis [1]. For this, we selected T cells responsive to five JCV peptide libraries via the Cytokine Capture System technology. It enables the enrichment of JCV specific T cells via identification of stimulus-induced interferon gamma secretion. Results Despite low frequencies of responsive T cells, we succeeded in generating a product containing 20 000 JCV reactive T cells ready for patient infusion. The adoptive cell transfer was performed without complication. Consequently, the clinical course stabilized and the patient slowly went into remission of PML with JCV negative CSF and containment of PML lesion expansion. Conclusion We report for the first time feasibility of generating T cells with possible anti-JCV activity from a seropositive family donor, a variation of virus specific T-cell therapies suitable for the post allo transplant setting. We also present the unusual case for successful treatment of PML after allo-HCT via virus specific T-cell therapy