Cognitive decline heralds onset of symptomatic inherited prion disease

The clinical effectiveness of any disease-modifying treatment for prion disease, as for other neurodegenerative disorders, will depend on early treatment before damage to neural tissue is irrevocable. Thus, there is a need to identify markers which predict disease onset in healthy at-risk individuals. Whilst imaging and neurophysiological biomarkers have shown limited use in this regard, we recently reported progressive neurophysiological changes in healthy people with the inherited prion disease mutation P102L (Rudge et al, Brain 2019). We have also previously demonstrated a signature pattern of fronto-parietal dysfunction in mild prion disease (Caine et al., 2015; 2018). Here we address whether these cognitive features anticipate the onset of symptoms in a unique sample of patients with inherited prion disease. In the cross-sectional analysis, we analysed the performance of patients at three time points in the course of disease onset: prior to symptoms (n = 27), onset of subjective symptoms without positive clinical findings (n = 8) and symptomatic with positive clinical findings (n = 24). In the longitudinal analysis, we analysed data from twenty four patients who were presymptomatic at the time of recruitment and were followed up over a period of up to seventeen years, of whom sixteen remained healthy and eight converted to become symptomatic. In the cross-sectional analysis, the key finding was that, relative to a group of 25 healthy non-gene carrier controls, patients with subjective symptoms but without positive clinical findings were impaired on a smaller but very similar set of tests (Trail Making Test part A, Stroop Test, Performance IQ, gesture repetition, figure recall) to those previously found to be impaired in mild prion disease (Caine et al., 2015; 2018). In the longitudinal analysis, Trail Making Test parts A and B, Stroop test and Performance IQ scores significantly discriminated between patients who remained presymptomatic and those who converted, even before the converters reached criteria for formal diagnosis. Notably, performance on the Stroop test significantly discriminated between presymptomatic patients and converters before the onset of clinical symptoms (AUC = .83 (95% CI, 0.62-1.00), p =.009). Thus, we report here, for the first time, neuropsychological abnormalities in healthy patients prior to either symptom onset or clinical diagnosis of IPD. This constitutes an important component of an evolving profile of clinical and biomarker abnormalities in this crucial group for preventive medicine

Development of prognostic models for survival and care status in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the most common human prion disease, typically presents as a rapidly progressive dementia and has a highly variable prognosis. Despite this heterogeneity, clinicians need to give timely advice on likely prognosis and care needs. No prognostic models have been developed that predict survival or time to increased care status from the point of diagnosis. We aimed to develop clinically useful prognostic models with data from a large prospective observational cohort study. Five hundred and thirty-seven patients were visited by mobile teams of doctors and nurses from the National Health Service National Prion Clinic within 5 days of notification of a suspected diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, enrolled to the study between October 2008 and March 2020, and followed up until November 2020. Prediction of survival over 10-, 30- and 100-day periods was the main outcome. Escalation of care status over the same time periods was a secondary outcome for a subsample of 113 patients with low care status at initial assessment. Two hundred and eighty (52.1%) patients were female and the median age was 67.2 (interquartile range 10.5) years. Median survival from initial assessment was 24 days (range 0-1633); 414 patients died within 100 days (77%). Ten variables were included in the final prediction models: sex; days since symptom onset; baseline care status; PRNP codon 129 genotype; Medical Research Council Prion Disease Rating Scale, Motor and Cognitive Examination Scales; count of MRI abnormalities; Mini-Mental State Examination score and categorical disease phenotype. The strongest predictor was PRNP codon 129 genotype (odds ratio 6.65 for methionine homozygous compared with methionine-valine heterozygous; 95% confidence interval 3.02-14.68 for 30-day mortality). Of 113 patients with lower care status at initial assessment, 88 (78%) had escalated care status within 100 days, with a median of 35 days. Area under the curve for models predicting outcomes within 10, 30 and 100 days was 0.94, 0.92 and 0.91 for survival, and 0.87, 0.87 and 0.95 for care status escalation, respectively. Models without PRNP codon 129 genotype, which is not immediately available at initial assessment, were also highly accurate. We have developed a model that can accurately predict survival and care status escalation in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease patients using clinical, imaging and genetic data routinely available in a specialist national referral service. The utility and generalizability of these models to other settings could be prospectively evaluated when recruiting to clinical trials and providing clinical care