Recalibrating prognostic models to improve predictions of in-hospital child mortality in resource-limited settings

Background In an external validation study, model recalibration is suggested once there is evidence of poor model calibration but with acceptable discriminatory abilities. We identified four models, namely RISC-Malawi (Respiratory Index of Severity in Children) developed in Malawi, and three other predictive models developed in Uganda by Lowlaavar et al. (2016). These prognostic models exhibited poor calibration performance in the recent external validation study, hence the need for recalibration. Objective In this study, we aim to recalibrate these models using regression coefficients updating strategy and determine how much their performances improve. Methods We used data collected by the Clinical Information Network from paediatric wards of 20 public county referral hospitals. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations. Model updating entailed adjustment of the model's calibration performance while the discriminatory ability remained unaltered. We used two strategies to adjust the model: intercept-only and the logistic recalibration method. Results Eligibility criteria for the RISC-Malawi model were met in 50,669 patients, split into two sets: a model-recalibrating set (n = 30,343) and a test set (n = 20,326). For the Lowlaavar models, 10,782 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 6175 were used to recalibrate the models and 4607 were used to test the performance of the adjusted model. The intercept of the recalibrated RISC-Malawi model was 0.12 (95% CI 0.07, 0.17), while the slope of the same model was 1.08 (95% CI 1.03, 1.13). The performance of the recalibrated models on the test set suggested that no model met the threshold of a perfectly calibrated model, which includes a calibration slope of 1 and a calibration-in-the-large/intercept of 0. Conclusions Even after model adjustment, the calibration performances of the 4 models did not meet the recommended threshold for perfect calibration. This finding is suggestive of models over/underestimating the predicted risk of in-hospital mortality, potentially harmful clinically. Therefore, researchers may consider other alternatives, such as ensemble techniques to combine these models into a meta-model to improve out-of-sample predictive performance

Hypothermia amongst neonatal admissions in Kenya: a retrospective cohort study assessing prevalence, trends, associated factors, and its relationship with all-cause neonatal mortality

Background: Reports on hypothermia from high-burden countries like Kenya amongst sick newborns often include few centers or relatively small sample sizes. Objectives: This study endeavored to describe: (i) the burden of hypothermia on admission across 21 newborn units in Kenya, (ii) any trend in prevalence of hypothermia over time, (iii) factors associated with hypothermia at admission, and (iv) hypothermia's association with inpatient neonatal mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2020 to March 2023, focusing on small and sick newborns admitted in 21 NBUs. The primary and secondary outcome measures were the prevalence of hypothermia at admission and mortality during the index admission, respectively. An ordinal logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between selected factors and the outcomes cold stress (36.0°C–36.4°C) and hypothermia (<36.0°C). Factors associated with neonatal mortality, including hypothermia defined as body temperature below 36.0°C, were also explored using logistic regression. Results: A total of 58,804 newborns from newborn units in 21 study hospitals were included in the analysis. Out of these, 47,999 (82%) had their admission temperature recorded and 8,391 (17.5%) had hypothermia. Hypothermia prevalence decreased over the study period while admission temperature documentation increased. Significant associations were found between low birthweight and very low (0–3) APGAR scores with hypothermia at admission. Odds of hypothermia reduced as ambient temperature and month of participation in the Clinical Information Network (a collaborative learning health platform for healthcare improvement) increased. Hypothermia at admission was associated with 35% (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.22, 1.50) increase in odds of neonatal inpatient death. Conclusions: A substantial proportion of newborns are admitted with hypothermia, indicating a breakdown in warm chain protocols after birth and intra-hospital transport that increases odds of mortality. Urgent implementation of rigorous warm chain protocols, particularly for low-birth-weight babies, is crucial to protect these vulnerable newborns from the detrimental effects of hypothermia

Pulse oximetry adoption and oxygen orders at paediatric admission over 7 years in Kenya: a multihospital retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To characterise adoption and explore specific clinical and patient factors that might influence pulse oximetry and oxygen use in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) over time; to highlight useful considerations for entities working on programmes to improve access to pulse oximetry and oxygen. DESIGN: A multihospital retrospective cohort study. SETTINGS: All admissions (n=132 737) to paediatric wards of 18 purposely selected public hospitals in Kenya that joined a Clinical Information Network (CIN) between March 2014 and December 2020. OUTCOMES: Pulse oximetry use and oxygen prescription on admission; we performed growth-curve modelling to investigate the association of patient factors with study outcomes over time while adjusting for hospital factors. RESULTS: Overall, pulse oximetry was used in 48.8% (64 722/132 737) of all admission cases. Use rose on average with each month of participation in the CIN (OR: 1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18) but patterns of adoption were highly variable across hospitals suggesting important factors at hospital level influence use of pulse oximetry. Of those with pulse oximetry measurement, 7% (4510/64 722) had hypoxaemia (SpO2 <90%). Across the same period, 8.6% (11 428/132 737) had oxygen prescribed but in 87%, pulse oximetry was either not done or the hypoxaemia threshold (SpO2 <90%) was not met. Lower chest-wall indrawing and other respiratory symptoms were associated with pulse oximetry use at admission and were also associated with oxygen prescription in the absence of pulse oximetry or hypoxaemia. CONCLUSION: The adoption of pulse oximetry recommended in international guidelines for assessing children with severe illness has been slow and erratic, reflecting system and organisational weaknesses. Most oxygen orders at admission seem driven by clinical and situational factors other than the presence of hypoxaemia. Programmes aiming to implement pulse oximetry and oxygen systems will likely need a long-term vision to promote adoption, guideline development and adherence and continuously examine impact

Appropriateness of clinical severity classification of new WHO childhood pneumonia guidance : a multi-hospital, retrospective, cohort study

Background: Management of pneumonia in many low-income and middle-income countries is based on WHO guidelines that classify children according to clinical signs that define thresholds of risk. We aimed to establish whether some children categorised as eligible for outpatient treatment might have a risk of death warranting their treatment in hospital. Methods: We did a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2–59 months admitted to one of 14 hospitals in Kenya with pneumonia between March 1, 2014, and Feb 29, 2016, before revised WHO pneumonia guidelines were adopted in the country. We modelled associations with inpatient mortality using logistic regression and calculated absolute risks of mortality for presenting clinical features among children who would, as part of revised WHO pneumonia guidelines, be eligible for outpatient treatment (non-severe pneumonia). Findings: We assessed 16 162 children who were admitted to hospital in this period. 832 (5%) of 16 031 children died. Among groups defined according to new WHO guidelines, 321 (3%) of 11 788 patients with non-severe pneumonia died compared with 488 (14%) of 3434 patients with severe pneumonia. Three characteristics were strongly associated with death of children retrospectively classified as having non-severe pneumonia: severe pallor (adjusted risk ratio 5·9, 95% CI 5·1–6·8), mild to moderate pallor (3·4, 3·0–3·8), and weight-for-age Z score (WAZ) less than −3 SD (3·8, 3·4–4·3). Additional factors that were independently associated with death were: WAZ less than −2 to −3 SD, age younger than 12 months, lower chest wall indrawing, respiratory rate of 70 breaths per min or more, female sex, admission to hospital in a malaria endemic region, moderate dehydration, and an axillary temperature of 39°C or more. Interpretation: In settings of high mortality, WAZ less than −3 SD or any degree of pallor among children with non-severe pneumonia was associated with a clinically important risk of death. Our data suggest that admission to hospital should not be denied to children with these signs and we urge clinicians to consider these risk factors in addition to WHO criteria in their decision making

Evaluating the documentation of vital signs following implementation of a new comprehensive newborn monitoring chart in 19 hospitals in Kenya: A time series analysis.

Multi-professional teams care for sick newborns, but nurses are the primary caregivers, making nursing care documentation essential for delivering high-quality care, fostering teamwork, and improving patient outcomes. We report on an evaluation of vital signs documentation following implementation of the comprehensive newborn monitoring chart using interrupted time series analysis and a review of filled charts. We collected post-admission vital signs (Temperature (T), Pulse (P), Respiratory Rate (R) and Oxygen Saturation (S)) documentation frequencies of 43,719 newborns with a length of stay > 48 hours from 19 public hospitals in Kenya between September 2019 and October 2021. The primary outcome was an ordinal categorical variable (no monitoring, monitoring 1 to 3 times, 4 to 7 times and 8 or more times) based on the number of complete sets of TPRS. Descriptive analyses explored documentation of at least one T, P, R and S. The percentage of patients in the no-monitoring category decreased from 68.5% to 43.5% in the post-intervention period for TPRS monitoring. The intervention increased the odds of being in a higher TPRS monitoring category by 4.8 times (p<0.001) and increased the odds of higher monitoring frequency for each vital sign, with S recording the highest odds. Sicker babies were likely to have vital signs documented in a higher monitoring category and being in the NEST360 program increased the odds of frequent vital signs documentation. However, by the end of the intervention period, nearly half of the newborns did not have a single full set of TPRS documented and there was heterogenous hospital performance. A review of 84 charts showed variable documentation, with only one chart being completed as designed. Vital signs documentation fell below standards despite increased documentation odds. More sustained interventions are required to realise the benefits of the chart and hospital-specific performance data may help customise interventions

Pulse oximetry adoption and oxygen orders at paediatric admission over 7 years in Kenya: a multihospital retrospective cohort study

Objectives To characterise adoption and explore specific clinical and patient factors that might influence pulse oximetry and oxygen use in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) over time; to highlight useful considerations for entities working on programmes to improve access to pulse oximetry and oxygen. Design A multihospital retrospective cohort study. Settings All admissions (n=132 737) to paediatric wards of 18 purposely selected public hospitals in Kenya that joined a Clinical Information Network (CIN) between March 2014 and December 2020. Outcomes Pulse oximetry use and oxygen prescription on admission; we performed growth-curve modelling to investigate the association of patient factors with study outcomes over time while adjusting for hospital factors. Results Overall, pulse oximetry was used in 48.8% (64 722/132 737) of all admission cases. Use rose on average with each month of participation in the CIN (OR: 1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18) but patterns of adoption were highly variable across hospitals suggesting important factors at hospital level influence use of pulse oximetry. Of those with pulse oximetry measurement, 7% (4510/64 722) had hypoxaemia (SpO2 <90%). Across the same period, 8.6% (11 428/132 737) had oxygen prescribed but in 87%, pulse oximetry was either not done or the hypoxaemia threshold (SpO2 <90%) was not met. Lower chest-wall indrawing and other respiratory symptoms were associated with pulse oximetry use at admission and were also associated with oxygen prescription in the absence of pulse oximetry or hypoxaemia. Conclusion The adoption of pulse oximetry recommended in international guidelines for assessing children with severe illness has been slow and erratic, reflecting system and organisational weaknesses. Most oxygen orders at admission seem driven by clinical and situational factors other than the presence of hypoxaemia. Programmes aiming to implement pulse oximetry and oxygen systems will likely need a long-term vision to promote adoption, guideline development and adherence and continuously examine impact