Case studies in Bayesian microbial risk assessments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The quantification of uncertainty and variability is a key component of quantitative risk analysis. Recent advances in Bayesian statistics make it ideal for integrating multiple sources of information, of different types and quality, and providing a realistic estimate of the combined uncertainty in the final risk estimates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present two case studies related to foodborne microbial risks. In the first, we combine models to describe the sequence of events resulting in illness from consumption of milk contaminated with VTEC O157. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate uncertainty in some of the inputs to computer models describing the farm and pasteurisation process. Resulting simulated contamination levels were then assigned to consumption events from a dietary survey. Finally we accounted for uncertainty in the dose-response relationship and uncertainty due to limited incidence data to derive uncertainty about yearly incidences of illness in young children. Options for altering the risk were considered by running the model with different hypothetical policy-driven exposure scenarios. In the second case study we illustrate an efficient Bayesian sensitivity analysis for identifying the most important parameters of a complex computer code that simulated VTEC O157 prevalence within a managed dairy herd. This was carried out in 2 stages, first to screen out the unimportant inputs, then to perform a more detailed analysis on the remaining inputs. The method works by building a Bayesian statistical approximation to the computer code using a number of known code input/output pairs (training runs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We estimated that the expected total number of children aged 1.5-4.5 who become ill due to VTEC O157 in milk is 8.6 per year, with 95% uncertainty interval (0,11.5). The most extreme policy we considered was banning on-farm pasteurisation of milk, which reduced the estimate to 6.4 with 95% interval (0,11). In the second case study the effective number of inputs was reduced from 30 to 7 in the screening stage, and just 2 inputs were found to explain 82.8% of the output variance. A combined total of 500 runs of the computer code were used.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These case studies illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics to perform detailed uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, integrating multiple information sources in a way that is both rigorous and efficient.</p

Deciphering c-MYC-regulated genes in two distinct tissues.

BACKGROUND: The transcription factor MYC is a critical regulator of diverse cellular processes, including both replication and apoptosis. Differences in MYC-regulated gene expression responsible for such opposing outcomes in vivo remain obscure. To address this we have examined time-dependent changes in global gene expression in two transgenic mouse models in which MYC activation, in either skin suprabasal keratinocytes or pancreatic islet β-cells, promotes tissue expansion or involution, respectively. RESULTS: Consistent with observed phenotypes, expression of cell cycle genes is increased in both models (albeit enriched in β-cells), as are those involved in cell growth and metabolism, while expression of genes involved in cell differentiation is down-regulated. However, in β-cells, which unlike suprabasal keratinocytes undergo prominent apoptosis from 24 hours, there is up-regulation of genes associated with DNA-damage response and intrinsic apoptotic pathways, including Atr, Arf, Bax and Cycs. In striking contrast, this is not the case for suprabasal keratinocytes, where pro-apoptotic genes such as Noxa are down-regulated and key anti-apoptotic pathways (such as Igf1-Akt) and those promoting angiogenesis are up-regulated. Moreover, dramatic up-regulation of steroid hormone-regulated Kallikrein serine protease family members in suprabasal keratinocytes alone could further enhance local Igf1 actions, such as through proteolysis of Igf1 binding proteins. CONCLUSIONS: Activation of MYC causes cell growth, loss of differentiation and cell cycle entry in both β-cells and suprabasal keratinocytes in vivo. Apoptosis, which is confined to β-cells, may involve a combination of a DNA-damage response and downstream activation of pro-apoptotic signalling pathways, including Cdc2a and p19(Arf)/p53, and downstream targets. Conversely, avoidance of apoptosis in suprabasal keratinocytes may result primarily from the activation of key anti-apoptotic signalling pathways, particularly Igf1-Akt, and induction of an angiogenic response, though intrinsic resistance to induction of p19(Arf) by MYC in suprabasal keratinocytes may contribute.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

A hybrid nanoparticle/alkoxide ink for inkjet printing of TiO2: a templating effect to form anatase at 200 °C

Novel hybrid nanoparticle/alkoxide inks for the inkjet printing of low temperature anatase TiO2.</p

The Iowa Homemaker vol.8, no.1

The Maples by Melba NIsewanger, page 1 Infantile Tetany – Its Cause and Cure by Mrs. Helen C. Morling, page 2 You Need Another Oven by Ethyl Cessna Morgan, page 3 -Makes a Girl Healthy by Rosemary Koeberle, page 4 “Home Economics on Display” by Ruth M. Davis, page 5 Girls’ 4-H Clubs by Lulu Tregoning, page 6 State Association Page by Marcia E. Turner, page 8 Home Economics Research at Iowa State by Melba Nisewanger, page 10 Editorial, page 11 Who’s There and Where by Vera Caulum, page 1

γ-H2AX Kinetic Profile in Mouse Lymphocytes Exposed to the Internal Emitters Cesium-137 and Strontium-90

In the event of a dirty bomb scenario or an industrial nuclear accident, a significant dose of volatile radionuclides such as 137Cs and 90Sr may be dispersed into the atmosphere as a component of fallout and inhaled or ingested by hundreds and thousands of people. To study the effects of prolonged exposure to ingested radionuclides, we have performed long-term (30 day) internal-emitter mouse irradiations using soluble-injected 137CsCl and 90SrCl2 radioisotopes. The effect of ionizing radiation on the induction and repair of DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) in peripheral mouse lymphocytes in vivo was determined using the γ-H2AX biodosimetry marker. Using a serial sacrifice experimental design, whole-body radiation absorbed doses for 137Cs (0 to 10 Gy) and 90Sr (0 to 49 Gy) were delivered over 30 days following exposure to each radionuclide. The committed absorbed doses of the two internal emitters as a function of time post exposure were calculated based on their retention parameters and their derived dose coefficients for each specific sacrifice time. In order to measure the kinetic profile for γ-H2AX, peripheral blood samples were drawn at 5 specific timed dose points over the 30-day study period and the total γ-H2AX nuclear fluorescence per lymphocyte was determined using image analysis software. A key finding was that a significant γ-H2AX signal was observed in vivo several weeks after a single radionuclide exposure. A mechanistically-motivated model was used to analyze the temporal kinetics of γ-H2AX fluorescence. Exposure to either radionuclide showed two peaks of γ-H2AX: one within the first week, which may represent the death of mature, differentiated lymphocytes, and the second at approximately three weeks, which may represent the production of new lymphocytes from damaged progenitor cells. The complexity of the observed responses to internal irradiation is likely caused by the interplay between continual production and repair of DNA damage, cell cycle effects and apoptosis

Contrasting Transient Photocurrent Characteristics for Thin Films of Vacuum-Doped “Grey” TiO2 and “Grey” Nb2O5

Photo-catalytic performance for oxide films, here for inkjet-printed TiO2 (ca. 1 μm thickness on FTO) and for spray-pyrolysis-coated Nb2O5 (ca. 1 μm thickness on FTO), is affected by oxygen vacancies that form during vacuum-heat treatment at 550 °C. The effects of the oxygen vacancies are associated with formation of Ti(III) and Nb(IV) sites, respectively, and therefore optically visible as “grey” coloration. Photo-electrochemical light-on-off transient experiments are performed in the limit of thin film photoanodes, where front and back illumination result in the same photo-current responses (i.e. with negligible effects from internal light absorption gradients). It is shown that generally the magnitude of photo-currents correlates linearly with light intensity, which is indicative of dominant “photo-capacitive” behaviour. At an applied voltage of 0.4 V vs. SCE (in the plateau region of the photo-current responses) the potential and also the pH (going from 1.0 M KOH to 0.1 M HClO4 in the presence of methanol quencher) have no significant effect on photo-currents; that is, surface chemical/kinetic effects appear to be unimportant and interfacial hole transfer may be rate limiting. Under these conditions (and based on a simplistic mechanistic model) changes in photo-currents introduced by oxygen vacancy doping (detrimental for TiO2 and beneficial for Nb2O5) are assigned primarily to changes in electron mobility

Observed impacts of COVID-19 on urban CO₂ emissions

Governments restricted mobility and effectively shuttered much of the global economy in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Six San Francisco Bay Area counties were the first region in the United States to issue a “shelter‐in‐place” order asking non‐essential workers to stay home. Here we use CO₂ observations from 35 Berkeley Environment, Air‐quality and CO₂ Network (BEACO₂N) nodes and an atmospheric transport model to quantify changes in urban CO₂ emissions due to the order. We infer hourly emissions at 900‐m spatial resolution for 6 weeks before and 6 weeks during the order. We observe a 30% decrease in anthropogenic CO₂ emissions during the order and show that this decrease is primarily due to changes in traffic (–48%) with pronounced changes to daily and weekly cycles; non‐traffic emissions show small changes (–8%). These findings provide a glimpse into a future with reduced CO₂ emissions through electrification of vehicles

Development of a high-throughput γ-H2AX assay based on imaging flow cytometry

Background Measurement of γ-H2AX foci levels in cells provides a sensitive and reliable method for quantitation of the radiation-induced DNA damage response. The objective of the present study was to develop a rapid, high-throughput γ-H2AX assay based on imaging flow cytometry (IFC) using the ImageStream®X Mk II (ISX) platform to evaluate DNA double strand break (DSB) repair kinetics in human peripheral blood cells after exposure to ionizing irradiation. Methods The γ-H2AX protocol was developed and optimized for small volumes (100 μL) of human blood in Matrix™ 96-tube format. Blood cell lymphocytes were identified and captured by ISX INSPIRE™ software and analyzed by Data Exploration and Analysis Software. Results Dose- and time-dependent γ-H2AX levels corresponding to radiation exposure were measured at various time points over 24 h using the IFC system. γ-H2AX fluorescence intensity at 1 h after exposure, increased linearly with increasing radiation dose (R2 = 0.98) for the four human donors tested, whereas the dose response for the mean number of γ-H2AX foci/cell was not as robust (R2 = 0.81). Radiation-induced γ-H2AX levels rapidly increased within 30 min and reached a maximum by ~ 1 h, after which time there was fast decline by 6 h, followed by a much slower rate of disappearance up to 24 h. A mathematical approach for quantifying DNA repair kinetics using the rate of γ-H2AX decay (decay constant, Kdec), and yield of residual unrepaired breaks (Fres) demonstrated differences in individual repair capacity between the healthy donors. Conclusions The results indicate that the IFC-based γ-H2AX protocol may provide a practical and high-throughput platform for measurements of individual global DNA DSB repair capacity which can facilitate precision medicine by predicting individual radiosensitivity and risk of developing adverse effects related to radiotherapy treatment

Observed impacts of COVID-19 on urban CO₂ emissions

Governments restricted mobility and effectively shuttered much of the global economy in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Six San Francisco Bay Area counties were the first region in the United States to issue a “shelter‐in‐place” order asking non‐essential workers to stay home. Here we use CO₂ observations from 35 Berkeley Environment, Air‐quality and CO₂ Network (BEACO₂N) nodes and an atmospheric transport model to quantify changes in urban CO₂ emissions due to the order. We infer hourly emissions at 900‐m spatial resolution for 6 weeks before and 6 weeks during the order. We observe a 30% decrease in anthropogenic CO₂ emissions during the order and show that this decrease is primarily due to changes in traffic (–48%) with pronounced changes to daily and weekly cycles; non‐traffic emissions show small changes (–8%). These findings provide a glimpse into a future with reduced CO₂ emissions through electrification of vehicles