The spatiotemporal structure of precipitation in Indian monsoon depressions

Indian monsoon depressions are synoptic scale events typically spun up in the Bay of Bengal. They usually last 4–6 days, during which they propagate northwestward across the Indian subcontinent before dissipating over northwest India or Pakistan. They can have a significant effect on monsoon precipitation, particularly in primarily agrarian northern India, and therefore quantifying their structure and variability and evaluating these in NWP models and GCMs is of critical importance. In this study, satellite data from the CloudSat and recently concluded TRMM missions are used in conjunction with an independently evaluated tracking algorithm to form a three-dimensional composite image of cloud structure and precipitation within monsoon depressions. The composite comprises 34 depressions from the 1998–2014 TRMM mission and 12 from the 2007-present CloudSat mission, and is statistically robust enough to allow significant probing of the spatiotemporal characteristics of moisture and hydrometeor fields. Among the key results of this work are the discovery and characterisation of a bimodal, diurnal cycle in surface precipitation; the first picture of the structure of cloud type and density in depressions, showing that deep convection dominates south of the centre and prominent cirrus throughout; the first composite picture of vertical hydrometeor structure in depressions, showing significant precipitation for hundreds of kilometres outside the centre and well past the mid-troposphere; and novel discussion of drop size distributions (showing significant uniformity across the depression) and resulting latent heat profiles, showing average heating rates near the centre can reach 2K/hr

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement

Maritime continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model’s local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation

The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM General Circulation Model

We demonstrate that summer precipitation biases in the South Asian monsoon domain are sensitive to increasing the convective parametrisation’s entrainment and detrainment rates in the Met Office Unified Model. We explore this sensitivity to improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parametrisation. We perform novel targeted experiments in which we increase the entrainment and detrainment rates in regions of especially large precipitation bias. We use these experiments to determine whether the sensitivity at a given location is a consequence of the local change to convection or is a remote response to the change elsewhere. We find that a local change leads to different mean-state responses in comparable regions. When the entrainment and detrainment rates are increased globally, feedbacks between regions usually strengthen the local responses. We choose two regions of tropical ascent that show different mean-state responses, the western equatorial Indian Ocean and western north Pacific, and analyse them as case studies to determine the mechanisms leading to the different responses. Our results indicate that several aspects of a region’s mean-state, including moisture content, sea surface temperature and circulation, play a role in local feedbacks that determine the response to increased entrainment and detrainment

Contribution of tropical cyclones to atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall over East Asia

The coastal region of East Asia (EA) is one of the regions with the most frequent impacts from tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, rainfall and moisture transports related to TCs are measured over the EA, and the contribution of TCs to the regional water budget is compared with other contributors, especially the mean circulation of the EA summer monsoon (EASM). Based on ERA-Interim re-analysis (1979–2012), the trajectories of TCs are identified using an objective feature tracking method. Over 60% of TCs occur from July to October (JASO). During JASO, TC rainfall contributes 10-30% the of monthly total rainfall over the coastal region of EA; this contribution is highest over the south/southeast coast of China in September. TCs make a larger contribution to daily extreme rainfall (above the 95th percentile): 50-60% over the EA coast and as high as 70% over Taiwan island. Compared with the mean EASM, TCs transport less moisture over the EA. However, as the peak of the mean seasonal cycle of TCs lags two months behind that of the EASM, the moisture transported by TCs is an important source for the water budget over the EA region when the EASM withdraws. This moisture transport is largely performed by westward-moving TCs. These results improve our understanding of the water cycle of EA and provide a useful test bed for evaluating and improving seasonal forecasts and coupled climate models

Dominant patterns of boreal summer interactions between tropics and mid-latitude: causal relationships and the role of timescales

Tropical convective activity represents a source of predictability for mid-latitude weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In winter, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of predictability in the tropics and extra-tropics, but its role in summer is much less pronounced and the exact teleconnection pathways are not well understood. Here, we assess how tropical convection interacts with mid-latitude summer circulation at different intraseasonal time-scales and how ENSO affects these interactions. First, we apply maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between tropical convective activity and mid-latitude geopotential height fields to identify the dominant modes of interaction. The first MCA mode connects the South Asian monsoon with the mid-latitude circumglobal teleconnection pattern. The second MCA mode connects the western North Pacific summer monsoon in the tropics with a wave-5 pattern centred over the North Pacific High in the mid-latitudes. We show that the MCA patterns are fairly insensitive to the selected intraseasonal time-scale from weekly to 4-weekly data. To study the potential causal interdependencies between these modes and with other atmospheric fields, we apply causal effect networks (CEN) at different time-scales. CENs extend standard correlation analysis by removing the confounding effects of autocorrelation, indirect links and common drivers. In general, there is a two-way causal interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes but the strength and sometimes sign of the causal link are time-scale dependent. We introduce causal maps that plot the regionally specific causal effect from each MCA mode. Those maps confirm the dominant patterns of interaction and in addition, highlight specific mid-latitude regions that are most strongly connected to tropical convection. In general, the identified causal teleconnection patterns are only mildly affected by ENSO and the tropical-mid-latitude linkages remain similar. Still, La Niña strengthens the South Asian monsoon generating a stronger response in the mid-latitudes, while during El Niño years, the Pacific pattern is reinforced. This study paves the way for process-based validation of boreal summer teleconnections in (sub)seasonal forecast models and climate models and therefore helps to improve sub-seasonal and climate projections

Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon. Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term West African monsoon variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the West African monsoon (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the West African monsoon

The Indian Easterly Jet During the pre-monsoon season in India

We identify for the first time an Indian Easterly Jet (IEJ) in the mid-troposphere during the pre-monsoon using reanalysis data. The IEJ is weaker and smaller than the African Easterly Jet over West Africa, with a climatological location of 10°N, 60–90°E, 700 hPa, and strength 6–7 m s−1 during March–May. The IEJ is a thermal wind associated with low-level meridional gradients in temperature (positive) and moisture (negative), resulting from equatorward moist convection and poleward dry convection. The IEJ is associated with a negative meridional potential vorticity gradient, therefore satisfying the Charney-Stern necessary condition for instability. However, no wave activity is detected, suggesting that the potential for combined barotropic-baroclinic instability is not often realized. IEJ strong (weak) years feature increased (reduced) near-surface temperatures and drier (wetter) conditions over India. This study provides an introduction to the IEJ's role in pre-monsoon dynamics, and a platform for further research

New invasive Nemertean species (Cephalothrix Simula) in England with high levels of tetrodotoxin and a microbiome linked to toxin metabolism

The marine nemertean Cephalothrix simula originates from the Pacific Ocean but in recent years has been discovered in northern Europe. The species has been associated with high levels of the marine neurotoxin Tetrodotoxin, traditionally associated with Pufferfish Poisoning. This study reports the first discovery of two organisms of C. simula in the UK, showing the geographical extent of this species is wider than originally described. Species identification was initially conducted morphologically, with confirmation by Cox 1 DNA sequencing. 16S gene sequencing enabled the taxonomic assignment of the microbiome, showing the prevalence of a large number of bacterial genera previously associated with TTX production including Alteromonas, Vibrio and Pseudomonas. LC-MS/MS analysis of the nemertean tissue revealed the presence of multiple analogues of TTX, dominated by the parent TTX, with a total toxin concentration quantified at 54 µg TTX per g of tissue. Pseudomonas luteola isolated from C. simula, together with Vibrio alginolyticus from the native nemertean Tubulanus annulatus, were cultured at low temperature and both found to contain TTX. Overall, this paper confirms the high toxicity of a newly discovered invasive nemertean species with links to toxin-producing marine bacteria and the potential risk to human safety. Further work is required to assess the geographical extent and toxicity range of C. simula along the UK coast in order to properly gauge the potential impacts on the environment and human safety

Population genetics of trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense: clonality and diversity within and between foci

African trypanosomes are unusual among pathogenic protozoa in that they can undergo their complete morphological life cycle in the tsetse fly vector with mating as a non-obligatory part of this development. Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, which infects humans and livestock in East and Southern Africa, has classically been described as a host-range variant of the non-human infective Trypanosoma brucei that occurs as stable clonal lineages. We have examined T. b. rhodesiense populations from East (Uganda) and Southern (Malawi) Africa using a panel of microsatellite markers, incorporating both spatial and temporal analyses. Our data demonstrate that Ugandan T. b. rhodesiense existed as clonal populations, with a small number of highly related genotypes and substantial linkage disequilibrium between pairs of loci. However, these populations were not stable as the dominant genotypes changed and the genetic diversity also reduced over time. Thus these populations do not conform to one of the criteria for strict clonality, namely stability of predominant genotypes over time, and our results show that, in a period in the mid 1990s, the previously predominant genotypes were not detected but were replaced by a novel clonal population with limited genetic relationship to the original population present between 1970 and 1990. In contrast, the Malawi T. b. rhodesiense population demonstrated significantly greater diversity and evidence for frequent genetic exchange. Therefore, the population genetics of T. b. rhodesiense is more complex than previously described. This has important implications for the spread of the single copy T. b. rhodesiense gene that allows human infectivity, and therefore the epidemiology of the human disease, as well as suggesting that these parasites represent an important organism to study the influence of optional recombination upon population genetic dynamics