Emergency and on-demand health care: modelling a large complex system

This paper describes how system dynamics was used as a central part of a whole-system review of emergency and on-demand health care in Nottingham, England. Based on interviews with 30 key individuals across health and social care, a 'conceptual map' of the system was developed, showing potential patient pathways through the system. This was used to construct a stock-flow model, populated with current activity data, in order to simulate patient flows and to identify system bottle-necks. Without intervention, assuming current trends continue, Nottingham hospitals are unlikely to reach elective admission targets or achieve the government target of 82% bed occupancy. Admissions from general practice had the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Preventing a small number of emergency admissions in elderly patients showed a substantial effect, reducing bed occupancy by 1% per annum over 5 years. Modelling indicated a range of undesirable outcomes associated with continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable potential to intervene to alleviate these problems, in particular by increasing the care options available in the community

Viscoelasticity and metastability limit in supercooled liquids

A supercooled liquid is said to have a kinetic spinodal if a temperature Tsp exists below which the liquid relaxation time exceeds the crystal nucleation time. We revisit classical nucleation theory taking into account the viscoelastic response of the liquid to the formation of crystal nuclei and find that the kinetic spinodal is strongly influenced by elastic effects. We introduce a dimensionless parameter \lambda, which is essentially the ratio between the infinite frequency shear modulus and the enthalpy of fusion of the crystal. In systems where \lambda is larger than a critical value \lambda_c the metastability limit is totally suppressed, independently of the surface tension. On the other hand, if \lambda < \lambda_c a kinetic spinodal is present and the time needed to experimentally observe it scales as exp[\omega/(\lambda_c-\lambda)^2], where \omega is roughly the ratio between surface tension and enthalpy of fusion

Magnetothermal transport in the spin-1/2 chains of copper pyrazine dinitrate

We present experiments on the thermal transport in the spin-1/2 chain compound copper pyrazine dinitrate Cu(C_4 H_4 N_2)(NO_3)_2. The heat conductivity shows a surprisingly strong dependence on the applied magnetic field B, characterized at low temperatures by two main features. The first one appearing at low B is a characteristic dip located at mu_B B ~ k_B T, that may arise from Umklapp scattering. The second one is a plateau-like feature in the quantum critical regime, mu_B |B-B_c| < k_B T, where B_c is the saturation field at T=0. The latter feature clearly points towards a momentum and field independent mean free path of the spin excitations, contrary to theoretical expectations.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Micromegas TPC studies at high magnetic fields using the charge dispersion signal

The International Linear Collider (ILC) Time Projection Chamber (TPC) transverse space-point resolution goal is 100 microns for all tracks including stiff 90 degree tracks with the full 2 meter drift. A Micro Pattern Gas Detector (MPGD) readout TPC can achieve the target resolution with existing techniques using 1 mm or narrower pads at the expense of increased detector cost and complexity. The new MPGD readout technique of charge dispersion can achieve good resolution without resorting to narrow pads. This has been demonstrated previously for 2 mm x 6 mm pads with GEMs and Micromegas in cosmic ray tests and in a KEK beam test in a 1 Tesla magnet. We have recently tested a Micromegas-TPC using the charge dispersion readout concept in a high field super-conducting magnet at DESY. The measured Micromegas gain was found to be constant within 0.5% for magnetic fields up to 5 Tesla. With the strong suppression of transverse diffusion at high magnetic fields, we measure a flat 50 micron resolution at 5 Tesla over the full 15 cm drift length of our prototype TPC.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Field-dependent thermal transport in the Haldane chain compound NENP

We present a study of the magnetic field-dependent thermal transport in the spin S=1 chain material Ni(C2H8N2)2NO2(ClO4) (NENP). The measured thermal conductivity is found to be very sensitive to the field-induced changes in the spin excitation spectrum. The magnetic contribution to the total heat conductivity is analyzed in terms of a quasiparticle model, and we obtain a temperature and momentum independent mean free path. This implies that the motion of quasiparticles is effectively three dimensional despite the tiny interchain coupling.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Searching for Earth analogues around the nearest stars: the disk age-metallicity relation and the age distribution in the Solar Neighbourhood

The chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere has undergone substantial evolution over the course of its history. It is possible, even likely, that terrestrial planets in other planetary systems have undergone similar changes; consequently, the age distribution of nearby stars is an important consideration in designing surveys for Earth-analogues. Valenti & Fischer (2005) provide age and metallicity estimates for 1039 FGK dwarfs in the Solar Neighbourhood. Using the Hipparcos catalogue as a reference to calibrate potential biases, we have extracted volume-limited samples of nearby stars from the Valenti-Fischer dataset. Unlike other recent investigations, our analysis shows clear evidence for an age-metallicity relation in the local disk, albeit with substantial dispersion at any epoch. The mean metallicity increases from -0.3 dex at a lookback time of ~10 Gyrs to +0.15 dex at the present day. Supplementing the Valenti-Fischer measurements with literature data to give a complete volume-limited sample, the age distribution of nearby FGK dwarfs is broadly consistent with a uniform star-formation rate over the history of the Galactic disk. In striking contrast, most stars known to have planetary companions are younger than 5 Gyrs; however, stars with planetary companions within 0.4 AU have a significantly flatter age distribution, indicating that those systems are stable on timescales of many Gyrs. Several of the older, lower metallicity host stars have enhanced [alpha/Fe] ratios, implying membership of the thick disk. If the frequency of terrestrial planets is also correlated with stellar metallicity, then the median age of such planetary system is likely to be ~3 Gyrs. We discuss the implications of this hypothesis in designing searches for Earth analogues among the nearby stars.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap