Underpricing, underperformance and overreaction in initial public offerings : evidence from investor attention using online searches

Online activity of Internet users has proven very useful in modeling various phenomena across a wide range of scientific disciplines. In our study, we focus on two stylized facts or puzzles surrounding the initial public offerings (IPOs) - the underpricing and the long-term underperformance. Using the Internet searches on Google, we proxy the investor attention before and during the day of the offering to show that the high attention IPOs have different characteristics than the low attention ones. After controlling for various effects, we show that investor attention still remains a strong component of the high initial returns (the underpricing), primarily for the high sentiment periods. Moreover, we demonstrate that the investor attention partially explains the overoptimistic market reaction and thus also a part of the long-term underperformance

A comparison of South Asian specific and established BMI thresholds for determining obesity prevalence in pregnancy and predicting pregnancy complications: findings from the Born in Bradford cohort

Objective: To describe how maternal obesity prevalence varies by established international and South Asian specific body mass index (BMI) cut-offs in women of Pakistani origin and investigate whether different BMI thresholds can help to identify women at risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Design: Prospective bi-ethnic birth cohort study (the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort). Setting: Bradford, a deprived city in the North of the UK. Participants: A total of 8478 South Asian and White British pregnant women participated in the BiB cohort study. Main outcome measures: Maternal obesity prevalence; prevalence of known obesity-related adverse pregnancy outcomes: mode of birth, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), gestational diabetes, macrosomia and pre-term births. Results: Application of South Asian BMI cut-offs increased prevalence of obesity in Pakistani women from 18.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.6–19.9) to 30.9% (95% CI 29.5–32.2). With the exception of pre-term births, there was a positive linear relationship between BMI and prevalence of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, across almost the whole BMI distribution. Risk of gestational diabetes and HDP increased more sharply in Pakistani women after a BMI threshold of at least 30 kg m−2, but there was no evidence of a sharp increase in any risk factors at the new, lower thresholds suggested for use in South Asian women. BMI was a good single predictor of outcomes (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.596–0.685 for different outcomes); prediction was more discriminatory and accurate with BMI as a continuous variable than as a binary variable for any possible cut-off point. Conclusion: Applying the new South Asian threshold to pregnant women would markedly increase those who were referred for monitoring and lifestyle advice. However, our results suggest that lowering the BMI threshold in South Asian women would not improve the predictive ability for identifying those who were at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes

Hyperglycaemia and risk of adverse perinatal outcomes: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: To assess the association between maternal glucose concentrations and adverse perinatal outcomes in women without gestational or existing diabetes and to determine whether clear thresholds for identifying women at risk of perinatal outcomes can be identified. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and control arms of randomised trials. Data sources: Databases including Medline and Embase were searched up to October 2014 and combined with individual participant data from two additional birth cohorts. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Studies including pregnant women with oral glucose tolerance (OGTT) or challenge (OGCT) test results, with data on at least one adverse perinatal outcome. Appraisal and data extraction: Glucose test results were extracted for OGCT (50 g) and OGTT (75 g and 100 g) at fasting and one and two hour post-load timings. Data were extracted on induction of labour; caesarean and instrumental delivery; pregnancy induced hypertension; pre-eclampsia; macrosomia; large for gestational age; preterm birth; birth injury; and neonatal hypoglycaemia. Risk of bias was assessed with a modified version of the critical appraisal skills programme and quality in prognostic studies tools. Results: 25 reports from 23 published studies and two individual participant data cohorts were included, with up to 207 172 women (numbers varied by the test and outcome analysed in the meta-analyses). Overall most studies were judged as having a low risk of bias. There were positive linear associations with caesarean section, induction of labour, large for gestational age, macrosomia, and shoulder dystocia for all glucose exposures across the distribution of glucose concentrations. There was no clear evidence of a threshold effect. In general, associations were stronger for fasting concentration than for post-load concentration. For example, the odds ratios for large for gestational age per 1 mmol/L increase of fasting and two hour post-load glucose concentrations (after a 75 g OGTT) were 2.15 (95% confidence interval 1.60 to 2.91) and 1.20 (1.13 to 1.28), respectively. Heterogeneity was low between studies in all analyses. Conclusions: This review and meta-analysis identified a large number of studies in various countries. There was a graded linear association between fasting and post-load glucose concentration across the whole glucose distribution and most adverse perinatal outcomes in women without pre-existing or gestational diabetes. The lack of a clear threshold at which risk increases means that decisions regarding thresholds for diagnosing gestational diabetes are somewhat arbitrary. Research should now investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of applying different glucose thresholds for diagnosis of gestational diabetes on perinatal and longer term outcomes

Ionic liquid facilitated melting of the metal-organic framework ZIF-8.

Hybrid glasses from melt-quenched metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have been emerging as a new class of materials, which combine the functional properties of crystalline MOFs with the processability of glasses. However, only a handful of the crystalline MOFs are meltable. Porosity and metal-linker interaction strength have both been identified as crucial parameters in the trade-off between thermal decomposition of the organic linker and, more desirably, melting. For example, the inability of the prototypical zeolitic imidazolate framework (ZIF) ZIF-8 to melt, is ascribed to the instability of the organic linker upon dissociation from the metal center. Here, we demonstrate that the incorporation of an ionic liquid (IL) into the porous interior of ZIF-8 provides a means to reduce its melting temperature to below its thermal decomposition temperature. Our structural studies show that the prevention of decomposition, and successful melting, is due to the IL interactions stabilizing the rapidly dissociating ZIF-8 linkers upon heating. This understanding may act as a general guide for extending the range of meltable MOF materials and, hence, the chemical and structural variety of MOF-derived glasses

Human gene copy number spectra analysis in congenital heart malformations

The clinical significance of copy number variants (CNVs) in congenital heart disease (CHD) continues to be a challenge. Although CNVs including genes can confer disease risk, relationships between gene dosage and phenotype are still being defined. Our goal was to perform a quantitative analysis of CNVs involving 100 well-defined CHD risk genes identified through previously published human association studies in subjects with anatomically defined cardiac malformations. A novel analytical approach permitting CNV gene frequency “spectra” to be computed over prespecified regions to determine phenotype-gene dosage relationships was employed. CNVs in subjects with CHD (n = 945), subphenotyped into 40 groups and verified in accordance with the European Paediatric Cardiac Code, were compared with two control groups, a disease-free cohort (n = 2,026) and a population with coronary artery disease (n = 880). Gains (≥200 kb) and losses (≥100 kb) were determined over 100 CHD risk genes and compared using a Barnard exact test. Six subphenotypes showed significant enrichment (P ≤ 0.05), including aortic stenosis (valvar), atrioventricular canal (partial), atrioventricular septal defect with tetralogy of Fallot, subaortic stenosis, tetralogy of Fallot, and truncus arteriosus. Furthermore, CNV gene frequency spectra were enriched (P ≤ 0.05) for losses at: FKBP6, ELN, GTF2IRD1, GATA4, CRKL, TBX1, ATRX, GPC3, BCOR, ZIC3, FLNA and MID1; and gains at: PRKAB2, FMO5, CHD1L, BCL9, ACP6, GJA5, HRAS, GATA6 and RUNX1. Of CHD subjects, 14% had causal chromosomal abnormalities, and 4.3% had likely causal (significantly enriched), large, rare CNVs. CNV frequency spectra combined with precision phenotyping may lead to increased molecular understanding of etiologic pathways

Pregnancy glycaemia and cord-blood levels of insulin and leptin in Pakistani and white British mother–offspring pairs: findings from a prospective pregnancy cohort

Aims/hypothesis To determine the extent to which gestational fasting and postload levels of glucose explain differences in infant fat mass between UK-born Pakistani and white British infants. Methods Analyses were undertaken in a prospective pregnancy cohort study of 1,415 women and their singleton live-born infants (629 white British and 786 Pakistani). Infant fat mass was assessed by cord-blood leptin levels and fetal insulin secretion by cord-blood insulin levels. Maternal OGTTs were completed at 26–28 weeks of gestation. Results Pakistani women had higher fasting and postload glucose levels and greater incidence of gestational diabetes than white British women. Higher fasting and postload glucose levels were associated with higher cord-blood levels of insulin and leptin in all participants, irrespective of ethnicity. Cord-blood leptin levels were 16% (95% CI 6, 26) higher in Pakistani than in white British infants. After adjustment for fasting glucose levels, this difference attenuated to 7% (−3, 16), and with additional adjustment for cord-blood insulin levels it attenuated further to 5% (−4, 14). Path analyses supported the hypothesis that fasting glucose levels mediate the relationship of Pakistani ethnicity to greater fat mass at birth, as measured by cord-blood leptin levels; on average, 19% of this mediation involved fetal insulin secretion. Postload glucose levels did not act as an important mediator of ethnic differences in cord-blood leptin levels. Results were very similar when 130 women with gestational diabetes were removed. Conclusions/interpretation These novel findings suggest a role of maternal pregnancy glycaemia in mediating differences in fat mass between Pakistani and white British infants

The identification and treatment of women with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy: an analysis of individual participant data, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and an economic evaluation

Background Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with a higher risk of important adverse outcomes. Practice varies and the best strategy for identifying and treating GDM is unclear. Aim To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying and treating women with GDM. Methods We analysed individual participant data (IPD) from birth cohorts and conducted systematic reviews to estimate the association of maternal glucose levels with adverse perinatal outcomes; GDM prevalence; maternal characteristics/risk factors for GDM; and the effectiveness and costs of treatments. The cost-effectiveness of various strategies was estimated using a decision tree model, along with a value of information analysis to assess where future research might be worthwhile. Detailed systematic searches of MEDLINE® and MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations®, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Plus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Maternity and Infant Care database and the Cochrane Methodology Register were undertaken from inception up to October 2014. Results We identified 58 studies examining maternal glucose levels and outcome associations. Analyses using IPD alone and the systematic review demonstrated continuous linear associations of fasting and post-load glucose levels with adverse perinatal outcomes, with no clear threshold below which there is no increased risk. Using IPD, we estimated glucose thresholds to identify infants at high risk of being born large for gestational age or with high adiposity; for South Asian (SA) women these thresholds were fasting and post-load glucose levels of 5.2 mmol/l and 7.2 mmol/l, respectively and for white British (WB) women they were 5.4 and 7.5 mmol/l, respectively. Prevalence using IPD and published data varied from 1.2% to 24.2% (depending on criteria and population) and was consistently two to three times higher in SA women than in WB women. Lowering thresholds to identify GDM, particularly in women of SA origin, identifies more women at risk, but increases costs. Maternal characteristics did not accurately identify women with GDM; there was limited evidence that in some populations risk factors may be useful for identifying low-risk women. Dietary modification additional to routine care reduced the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes. Metformin (Glucophage,® Teva UK Ltd, Eastbourne, UK) and insulin were more effective than glibenclamide (Aurobindo Pharma – Milpharm Ltd, South Ruislip, Middlesex, UK). For all strategies to identify and treat GDM, the costs exceeded the health benefits. A policy of no screening/testing or treatment offered the maximum expected net monetary benefit (NMB) of £1184 at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The NMB for the three best-performing strategies in each category (screen only, then treat; screen, test, then treat; and test all, then treat) ranged between –£1197 and –£1210. Further research to reduce uncertainty around potential longer-term benefits for the mothers and offspring, find ways of improving the accuracy of identifying women with GDM, and reduce costs of identification and treatment would be worthwhile. Limitations We did not have access to IPD from populations in the UK outside of England. Few observational studies reported longer-term associations, and treatment trials have generally reported only perinatal outcomes. Conclusions Using the national standard cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY it is not cost-effective to routinely identify pregnant women for treatment of hyperglycaemia. Further research to provide evidence on longer-term outcomes, and more cost-effective ways to detect and treat GDM, would be valuable

Prophylactic antibiotics in the prevention of infection after operative vaginal delivery (ANODE): a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for maternal infection are clearly recognised, including caesarean section and operative vaginal birth. Antibiotic prophylaxis at caesarean section is widely recommended because there is clear systematic review evidence that it reduces incidence of maternal infection. Current WHO guidelines do not recommend routine antibiotic prophylaxis for women undergoing operative vaginal birth because of insufficient evidence of effectiveness. We aimed to investigate whether antibiotic prophylaxis prevented maternal infection after operative vaginal birth. METHODS: In a blinded, randomised controlled trial done at 27 UK obstetric units, women (aged ≥16 years) were allocated to receive a single dose of intravenous amoxicillin and clavulanic acid or placebo (saline) following operative vaginal birth at 36 weeks gestation or later. The primary outcome was confirmed or suspected maternal infection within 6 weeks of delivery defined by a new prescription of antibiotics for specific indications, confirmed systemic infection on culture, or endometritis. We did an intention-to-treat analysis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 11166984, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between March 13, 2016, and June 13, 2018, 3427 women were randomly assigned to treatment: 1719 to amoxicillin and clavulanic acid, and 1708 to placebo. Seven women withdrew, leaving 1715 in the amoxicillin and clavulanic acid group and 1705 in the placebo groups. Primary outcome data were missing for 195 (6%) women. Significantly fewer women allocated to amoxicillin and clavulanic acid had a confirmed or suspected infection (180 [11%] of 1619) than women allocated to placebo (306 [19%] of 1606; risk ratio 0·58, 95% CI 0·49-0·69; p<0·0001). One woman in the placebo group reported a skin rash and two women in the amoxicillin and clavulanic acid reported other allergic reactions, one of which was reported as a serious adverse event. Two other serious adverse events were reported, neither was considered causally related to the treatment. INTERPRETATION: This trial shows benefit of a single dose of prophylactic antibiotic after operative vaginal birth and guidance from WHO and other national organisations should be changed to reflect this. FUNDING: NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme

Small-for-gestational age & Large-for-gestational age thresholds to predict infants at risk of adverse delivery and neonatal outcomes: are current charts adequate? An observational study from the Born in Bradford cohort

Objectives: Construct an ethnic specific chart and compare the prediction of adverse outcomes using this chart with the clinically recommended UK-WHO (United Kingdom-World Health Organization) and customised birth weight charts using cut offs for small-for-gestational age (SGA: birth weight 90th centile). Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Born in Bradford (BiB) study, UK. Participants: 3980 White British and 4448 Pakistani infants with complete data for gestational age, birth weight, ethnicity, maternal height, weight and parity. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of SGA and LGA, using the three charts and indicators of diagnostic utility (sensitivity, specificity and area-under-the curve (AUROC)) of these chart-specific cut-offs to predict delivery and neonatal outcomes and a composite outcome. Results: In White British and Pakistani infants, the prevalence of SGA and LGA differed depending on the chart used. Increased risk of SGA was observed when using the UK-WHO and customised charts as opposed to the ethnic-specific, whilst the opposite was apparent when classifying LGA infants. However, the predictive utility all three charts to identify adverse clinical outcomes was poor, with only the prediction of shoulder dystocia achieving an AUROC>0.62 on all three charts. Conclusion: Despite being recommended in national clinical guidelines, the UK-WHO and the customised birth weight charts perform poorly at identifying infants at risk of adverse neonatal outcomes. Being small or large may increase the risk of an adverse outcome, however size alone is not sensitive or specific enough with current detection to be useful. However, a significant amount of missing data for some of the outcomes may have limited the power needed to determine true associations

Effect of treatment of gestational diabetes mellitus on pregnancy outcomes

Copyright © 2005 Massachusetts Medical Society.Background: We conducted a randomized clinical trial to determine whether treatment of women with gestational diabetes mellitus reduced the risk of perinatal complications. Methods: We randomly assigned women between 24 and 34 weeks’ gestation who had gestational diabetes to receive dietary advice, blood glucose monitoring, and insulin therapy as needed (the intervention group) or routine care. Primary outcomes included serious perinatal complications (defined as death, shoulder dystocia, bone fracture, and nerve palsy), admission to the neonatal nursery, jaundice requiring phototherapy, induction of labor, cesarean birth, and maternal anxiety, depression, and health status. Results: The rate of serious perinatal complications was significantly lower among the infants of the 490 women in the intervention group than among the infants of the 510 women in the routine-care group (1 percent vs. 4 percent; relative risk adjusted for maternal age, race or ethnic group, and parity, 0.33; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.14 to 0.75; P=0.01). However, more infants of women in the intervention group were admitted to the neonatal nursery (71 percent vs. 61 percent; adjusted relative risk, 1.13; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.23; P=0.01). Women in the intervention group had a higher rate of induction of labor than the women in the routine-care group (39 percent vs. 29 percent; adjusted relative risk, 1.36; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.62; P<0.001), although the rates of cesarean delivery were similar (31 percent and 32 percent, respectively; adjusted relative risk, 0.97; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.81 to 1.16; P=0.73). At three months post partum, data on the women’s mood and quality of life, available for 573 women, revealed lower rates of depression and higher scores, consistent with improved health status, in the intervention group. Conclusions: Treatment of gestational diabetes reduces serious perinatal morbidity and may also improve the woman’s health-related quality of life.Caroline A. Crowther, Janet E. Hiller, John R. Moss, Andrew J. McPhee, William S. Jeffries and Jeffrey S. Robinso