A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies

This paper shows how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability estimates of failure for a control group of surviving companies are also constructed. These are used in Probit-regressions to evaluate the information content of the Merton-based estimates relative to information available in company accounts. The paper shows that there is much useful information in the Merton-style estimates.Merton models, corporate failure, implied default probabilities

The timing and funding of CHAPS sterling payments

Real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems such as CHAPS Sterling require large amounts of liquidity to support payment activity. To meet their liquidity needs, RTGS participants borrow from the central bank or rely on incoming payments from other participants. Both options can prove costly -- the latter in particular if participants delay outgoing payments until incoming ones arrive. This article presents an empirical analysis of the timing and funding of payments in CHAPS. The authors seek to identify the factors driving the intraday profile of payment activity and the extent to which incoming funds are used as a funding source, a process known as liquidity recycling. They show that the level of liquidity recycling in CHAPS is high and stable throughout the day, and attribute this result to several features of the system. First, the settlement of time-critical payments provides liquidity to the system early in the settlement day; this liquidity can be recycled for the funding of less urgent payments. Second, CHAPS throughput guidelines provide a centralised coordination mechanism, in effect limiting any tendency toward payment delay. Third, the relatively small direct membership of CHAPS facilitates coordination between members, for example, through the use of bilateral net sender limits. Coordination encourages banks to maintain a relatively constant flux of payments throughout the day. The authors also argue that the high level of recycling helps to reduce liquidity risk, and that the relatively smooth intraday distribution of payments serves to mitigate operational risk associated with highly concentrated payment activity. They note, however, that the benefits of liquidity recycling are not evenly distributed between members of CHAPS.Payment systems ; Bank liquidity ; Risk ; Electronic funds transfers

What can be said about the rise and fall in oil prices?

The price of oil rose steadily between the middle of 2003 and the end of 2007, rose further and more rapidly until mid-2008 and fell sharply until the end of that year. Commentators agree that a significant part of the increase in the oil price over that period was due to rapid demand growth from emerging markets, but there are substantial differences of view about the relative importance of other factors, and limited work thus far in explaining the large fall in oil prices in the second half of 2008. The purpose of this article is to analyse the main explanations for the rise and fall in oil prices in the five years until the end of 2008. It argues that shocks to oil demand and supply, coupled with the institutional factors of the oil market, are qualitatively consistent with the direction of price movements, although the magnitude of the rise and subsequent fall during 2008 is more difficult to justify. The available empirical evidence suggests that financial flows into oil markets have not been an important factor over the period as a whole. Nonetheless, one cannot rule out the possibility that some part of the sharp rise and fall in the oil price in 2008 might have had some of the characteristics of an asset price bubble.

Risks and efficiency gains of a tiered structure in large-value payments: a simulation approach

The large-value payment system in the United Kingdom (CHAPS) is highly tiered: a few settlement banks make payments on behalf of many customer banks. This paper makes use of a simulation approach to quantify by how much tiering affects, on the one hand, concentration and credit risk and, on the other, the liquidity needs of CHAPS. We do so by creating scenarios where current settlement banks become customer banks and thus we increase the degree of tiering. The results show that concentration risk would rise substantially in what is already a highly concentrated system. As for credit risk, the size of intraday exposures compared with settlement banks' capital is very small and therefore the likelihood of contagion remote. More importantly, the increase in credit risk brought to the system by settlement banks leaving CHAPS bears little relationship to the values settled by each individual bank. We find that increasing the degree of tiering in CHAPS leads to substantial liquidity savings - although the liquidity saved is only a fraction of the spare liquidity currently posted in the system. Most of the savings are due to liquidity pooling rather than to internalisation of payments. There is a strong relationship between changes in values settled and liquidity needs. This relationship can be used to forecast the impact on liquidity needs if more banks were to join CHAPS. The quantification of the trade-off between risk and efficiency in different scenarios provides policymakers with a useful analytical framework for analysing the effects of tiering.

The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom

Household indebtedness has grown sharply in the United Kingdom in recent years. This paper proposes a framework for understanding this based on a model in which households are assumed to plan their lifetime spending rationally, allowing for bequests to future generations. The model is set up to be consistent with both aggregate and disaggregated balance sheet positions as revealed in the British Household Panel Survey. The paper goes on to outline the effect on debt and balance sheets of changes in interest rates, house prices, preferences and retirement income.

A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies

In this paper it is shown how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of individual quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are then constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability estimates of failure for a control group of surviving companies are also constructed. These are used in probit regressions to evaluate the information content of the Merton-based estimates relative to information available in company accounts and in assessing Type I and Type II errors. Power curves and accuracy ratios are also examined. It is shown that there is much useful information in the Merton-style estimates.

From tiny samples do mighty populations grow? Using the British Household Panel Survey to analyse the household sector balance sheet

This paper evaluates the reliability of specific variables in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) by comparing grossed-up variables from the BHPS with their corresponding national aggregates. The paper focuses on those variables that provide the most information on risks to financial stability stemming from households, particularly household balance sheet variables relating to debt and assets, and income. The results indicate that housing wealth and income derived from the BHPS are broadly consistent with the aggregate measures. But unsecured debt and financial wealth are substantially under-recorded in the BHPS relative to the aggregate benchmark.

When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach

Since the mid-1990s the volume of secured lending to households has expanded rapidly, both in absolute terms and in relation to household incomes. This paper examines the determinants of households' ability to service this stock of secured debt. It estimates a random effects probit model for the probability of households having mortgage payment problems. It is found that past experience of payment problems increases the probability that the household has difficulties servicing its secured debt today. At the household level, becoming unemployed, interest income gearing of 20% and above, high loan to value ratios and having a heavy burden of unsecured debt are all associated with a significantly higher probability of mortgage payment problems. Saving regularly and having unsecured debt which is not a problem are both associated with a significantly lower probability of mortgage payment problems. The only non-household-specific variable to have a significant effect is mortgage interest rates - the probability of payment problems increases with the level of mortgage interest rates. An aggregate measure of debt at risk is calculated. This has decreased between 1994 and 2002, as falls in the probability of mortgage payment problems have more than offset increases in the stock of mortgage debt outstanding. It is found that the fall in the probability of mortgage payment problems has been greatest among the most highly indebted households.