Forecasting natural gas consumption in Turkey using fractional non-linear grey Bernoulli model optimized by grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm

Natural gas stands as an indispensable energy source, integrated to the daily operations of countries worldwide, serving as a primary energy input for various industries, homes, and sectors. The predominant driver behind the escalating trend in natural gas consumption is rooted in its distinctive environmental profile, characterized by a relatively lower carbon emissions footprint. Recognized as the most environmentally friendly among fossil fuels, natural gas has become the preferred choice, reflecting a conscious effort to mitigate environmental impact and promote sustainability in energy consumption patterns in the world. Especially, in developing countries like Turkey, effective management of energy resources and the formulation of policies centered on the production and consumption of natural gas necessitate accurate forecasting. This study, thus, focuses on forecasting natural gas consumption in Turkey, employing the Fractional Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (FANGBM(1,1)) optimized by Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). First, the parameters are optimized using GWO for an accurate forecasting to be used through the metaheuristic model FANGBM(1,1). After using GWO-FANGBM(1,1) model to forecast natural gas consumption in Turkey, a comparative study has been performed including GM(1,1) and GWO-GM(1,1). The predictive performance of these models is compared with ARIMA and linear regression. Notably, numerical results reveal that the proposed hybrid model GWO-FANGBM(1,1) model surpasses other grey models, such as GM(1,1) and GWO-GM(1,1), as well as statistical methods like ARIMA and linear regression. Numerical results show that the proposed hybrid model, GWO-FANGBM(1,1), achieves superior prediction accuracy with a MAPE of 5.82%, an RMSE of 3857.12, and an MAE of 3062.00, outperforming GM(1,1), GWO-GM(1,1), ARIMA, and LR. The originality of the study is supported by the fact that a hybrid approach named as GWO-FANGBM(1,1) has not been used in the literature to forecast natural gas consumption in Turkey with an accurate parameter optimization

Understanding coopetition dynamics in manufacturing value networks : a system dynamics based causal loop diagram (CLD) modelling approach

The concept of “coopetition” in manufacturing value networks involves firms engaging in both collaboration and competition simultaneously. This approach, while aiming to leverage the benefits of both, inherently introduces a paradox concerning value creation and capture. Within a value network, coopetition involves various entities such as suppliers, distributors, subcontractors, and even competitors working together to enhance overall value. Despite a surge in research on coopetition, there remains a disjointed understanding, with limited exploration of its dynamics within manufacturing contexts. To address this gap, our study constructs a system dynamics model using causal loop diagrams (CLD) derived from an indepth literature review within the manufacturing sector. Our aim is to comprehensively elucidate the factors influencing co-opetitive relationships and dynamics in manufacturing value networks and business ecosystems. Furthermore, existing literature emphasizes the need for a multifaceted perspective on coopetition in manufacturing. Our model, developed through consultation of extensive manufacturing and business literature and CLD application, identifies key factors driving coopetition dynamics in manufacturing and business ecosystem contexts. It represents the first comprehensive content analysis of coopetition dynamics within manufacturing and business ecosystems, serving as a valuable resource for scholars and professionals in the manufacturing and management field. By examining interconnected elements in a causal loop framework specific to manufacturing and business ecosystems, our study reveals how dynamic factors influence co-opetitive outcomes in these ecosystems. We explore various manufacturing-related aspects, such as supply chain dynamics in coopetition, technological innovations, and market dynamics, all impacting co-opetitive interactions. This comprehensive approach fills a literature gap, offering insights into critical factors affecting the co-opetitive process within manufacturing and business value networks. Our study’s methodology, employing causal loop diagrams tailored to the manufacturing domain, stands out in the literature, providing a unique perspective on coopetition dynamics within manufacturing and management contexts

Prevalence of Vitamin D Deficiency and Hypervitaminosis D Among Adult Patients Admitted to the Tertiary Care Hospitals in Turkey

Objective: Vitamin D deficiency is a common health problem around the world. This study aimed to evaluate the nationwide prevalence of vitamin D status in tertiary care hospitals in Turkey. Methods: Retrospectively, the data on vitamin D levels from 33 tertiary care hospitals' clinical bio-chemistry laboratories around Turkey between January and December were collected. Results: In total, 706 434 serum samples from adult subjects (female/male: 469 028/237 406; 66.4%/33.6%) were included. While vitamin D levels were sufficient in 20.3% (n = 14 222), they were insufficient in 21.9% (n = 154 360) and deficient in 57.8% (n = 408 882). We observed the highest rates of deficiency in those aged between 18 and 29 years (62.9%, n = 70 235) and lowest rates between 60 and 69 years (52.3%, n = 61 121) and between 70 and 79 years (52.3%, n = 32 397). Hypervitaminosis D was detected in 5.5% of adult subjects; highest rates of hypervitaminosis D were observed in those who were over 80 years (6.6%) and 70-79 years (6.5%) and the lowest in 18-29 years (2.8%). Discussion: In this cohort, over half of the subjects admitted to the tertiary care hospitals in Turkey had vitamin D deficiency and required vitamin D supplementation. The elderly population had the lowest prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency and the highest prevalence of hypervitaminosis D

Vincristine as an Adjunct to Therapeutic Plasma Exchange for Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura: A Single-Institution Experience

Background: Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura is a potentially life-threatening condition. Although the introduction of therapeutic plasma exchange has reduced mortality rates from over 90% to 10%-20%, approximately 40% of patients relapse, and outcomes may be fatal in refractory patients. There is clearly a need for additional therapeutic approaches. Aims: To describe the outcomes of relapsed/refractory thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura patients treated with vincristine as an adjunct to therapeutic plasma exchange. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: The medical records of all relapsed/refractory patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura treated with vincristine adjunct to therapeutic plasma exchange between October 2000 and December 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Diagnosis of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura was based on clinical history, physical examination, and laboratory examinations. Patient demographics, laboratory findings, initial date and duration of therapeutic plasma exchange, dosage and time of administration of vincristine, and outcomes were recorded. Results: The study included 15 patients [median age: 37 years (range: 26-65); 7 women and 8 men] with either relapsed or refractory thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura who were treated with vincristine as an adjunct to therapeutic plasma exchange for a total of 22 episodes. Eighty-seven percent of patients achieved remissions in 20 of 22 episodes, with a median duration of remission of 29.5 months (range: 3-105). After a median follow-up of 55 months, 11 patients were alive. Vincristine was well tolerated with no safety concerns. Conclusion: Vincristine offers a reasonable option for the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. Further studies evaluating vincristine in the front-line setting and in the relapsed/refractory setting are needed to validate the role of vincristine in thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura patients

Kanser hastalarında yaşam kalitesinin iyileştirilmesi ve uyku bozukluklarının tedavisinde uyku hijyeni ve psikopatolojinin yeri: Bir yol analizi çalışması

Amaç: Kanser hastalarında uyku bozuklukları, uyku hijyeni, psikopatoloji ve yaşam kalitesi kavramlarını bütüncül bir çerçevede ele alan az sayıda çalışma vardır. Özellikle uyku hijyeni erişkin kanser hastalarında uyku bozukluklarının tedavisinde yer almasına rağmen etkinliğine dair çalışma yoktur. Çalışmanın amacı bu kavramlar arasındaki ilişkilerin yön ve büyüklüklerini modellemek ve böylece klinik pratiğe katkı sunmaktır. Yöntem: Bu çalışma kanser tanısı almış 34 katılımcı ve 16 sağlıklı kontrolden oluşan iki grup üzerinde yapılmıştır. Katılımcılar uyku hijyeni ve bozuklukları, psikopatoloji ve yaşam kalitesi bakımından karşılaştırılmıştır. Bulgular: Kanser hastalarında uyku hijyeni, uyku sağlığı, ruh sağlığı ve yaşam kalitesi kontrol grubuna göre anlamlı düzeyde bozulmuştur. Ancak uyku hijyeninde bozulmanın uyku bozuklukları, psikopatoloji ve yaşam kalitesi üzerinde etkisi saptanmamıştır. Uyku bozuklukları psikopatolojideki artışa ikincil olarak geliştiği saptanmıştır. Sonuç: Kanser hastalarında uyku bozukluklarının tedavisinde uyku hijyeni önerileri hastaya göre ve dikkatli seçilmeli ve etkileri sınırlı olabileceği için bu hastalarda uyku bozukluklarındaki gidişin yakın izlenmesi gereklidir. Ayrıca kanser hastalarında uyku bozuklukları ve yaşam kalitesinin iyileştirilmesinde temel hedefin hastadaki psikopatoloji düzeyi olması gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme (ACE) level, but not ACE gene polymorphism, is associated with prognosis of COVID-19 infection: Implications for diabetes and hypertension.

BackgroundThe renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system was shown to be activated in severe COVID-19 infection. We aimed to investigate the relationship between angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) levels, ACE gene polymorphism, type 2 diabetes (T2DM), and hypertension (HT) and the prognosis of COVID-19 infection.MethodsThis cross-sectional study analyzed the clinical features of adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. ACE gene analysis and ACE level measurements were performed. The patients were grouped according to ACE gene polymorphism (DD, ID or II), disease severity (mild, moderate, or severe), and the use of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 enzyme inhibitor (DPP4i), ACE-inhibitor (ACEi) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB). Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality were also recorded.ResultsA total of 266 patients were enrolled. Gene analysis detected DD polymorphism in the ACE 1 gene in 32.7% (n = 87), ID in 51.5% (n = 137), and II in 15.8% (n = 42) of the patients. ACE gene polymorphisms were not associated with disease severity, ICU admission, or mortality. ACE levels were higher in patients who died (p = 0.004) or were admitted to the ICU (p37.092 ng/mL, AUC: 0.775, pConclusionOur findings suggest that higher ACE levels, but not ACE gene polymorphism, ACEi/ARB or DPP4i use, were associated with the prognosis of COVID-19 infection. The presence of HT and T2DM and ACEi/ARB or DPP4i use were not associated with mortality or ICU admission