Who Bears the Balloon Risk in Commercial MBS?

Much of the literature on the pricing of commercial mortgages underlying commercial mortgage-backed securities pools focuses on the effect of term default (default during the term of the loan), and ignores the possibility of balloon risk, the borrower\u27s inability to pay off the mortgage at maturity through refinancing or property sale. A contingent-claims mortgage pricing model that includes two default triggers—a cash flow trigger and an asset value trigger—may be used to assess the effect of balloon risk on the pricing of CMBS tranches. Simulations of cash flows for individual loans in a CMBS framework reveal how individual tranches are affected by balloon risk. Balloon risk is low at the whole-loan level, but under a number of scenarios total credit risk and balloon risk creep into investment-grade CMBS tranches and significantly impact their valuation

An Empirical Examination of Traditional Neighborhood Development

This study analyzes the impact of the new urbanism on single-family home prices. Specifically, we explore the price differential that homebuyers pay for houses in new urbanist developments relative to houses in conventional suburban developments. Using data on over 5,000 single-family home sales from 1994 to 1997 in three different neighborhoods, hedonic regression results reveal that consumers pay more for homes in new urbanist communities than those in conventional suburban developments. Further analyses indicate that the price premium is not attributable to differences in improvement age and other housing characteristics

Term Default, Balloon Risk, and Credit Risk in Commercial Mortgages

Term default and balloon risk play an interactive role in the pricing of credit risk in commercial mortgages. Most commercial mortgage pricing studies assume a borrower\u27s default decision is based solely on the property value; the mortgage valuation model here also incorporates a property income trigger. The model considers both the risk of default during the term of the loan and the risk of loss at maturity (balloon risk). Monte Carlo simulation analyses reveal that pricing models based solely on property value overestimate the probability of term default and the resulting credit risk premium. Adding a property income default trigger without considering balloon risk, however, underestimates the overall credit risk premium. In essence, a double-trigger default model that incorporates balloon risk is critical for accurate assessment of the credit risk in commercial mortgages

Extension Risk in Commercial Mortgages

Historical data and Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine the likelihood of loan extension and potential losses associated with extension. It is found that extension probability is highly sensitive to property NOI growth, to NOI volatility, to the amortization schedule, and to the loan term. It is found that extension risk is largely unaffected by changing credit spreads, changing yield curve assumptions, and changing term default assumptions. It is found that changing the underwriting standards affects the probability of loan extension in a somewhat muted way. It is estimated that the loss during extension is approximately 2%-3% of the outstanding loan amount at maturity

Designing an automated clinical decision support system to match clinical practice guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic pain

Abstract Background Opioid prescribing for chronic pain is common and controversial, but recommended clinical practices are followed inconsistently in many clinical settings. Strategies for increasing adherence to clinical practice guideline recommendations are needed to increase effectiveness and reduce negative consequences of opioid prescribing in chronic pain patients. Methods Here we describe the process and outcomes of a project to operationalize the 2003 VA/DOD Clinical Practice Guideline for Opioid Therapy for Chronic Non-Cancer Pain into a computerized decision support system (DSS) to encourage good opioid prescribing practices during primary care visits. We based the DSS on the existing ATHENA-DSS. We used an iterative process of design, testing, and revision of the DSS by a diverse team including guideline authors, medical informatics experts, clinical content experts, and end-users to convert the written clinical practice guideline into a computable algorithm to generate patient-specific recommendations for care based upon existing information in the electronic medical record (EMR), and a set of clinical tools. Results The iterative revision process identified numerous and varied problems with the initially designed system despite diverse expert participation in the design process. The process of operationalizing the guideline identified areas in which the guideline was vague, left decisions to clinical judgment, or required clarification of detail to insure safe clinical implementation. The revisions led to workable solutions to problems, defined the limits of the DSS and its utility in clinical practice, improved integration into clinical workflow, and improved the clarity and accuracy of system recommendations and tools. Conclusions Use of this iterative process led to development of a multifunctional DSS that met the approval of the clinical practice guideline authors, content experts, and clinicians involved in testing. The process and experiences described provide a model for development of other DSSs that translate written guidelines into actionable, real-time clinical recommendations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/1/1748-5908-5-26.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/2/1748-5908-5-26.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/3/1748-5908-5-26-S3.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/4/1748-5908-5-26-S2.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/5/1748-5908-5-26-S1.TIFFPeer Reviewe

A Unique Resource Mutualism between the Giant Bornean Pitcher Plant, Nepenthes rajah, and Members of a Small Mammal Community

The carnivorous pitcher plant genus Nepenthes grows in nutrient-deficient substrates and produce jug-shaped leaf organs (pitchers) that trap arthropods as a source of N and P. A number of Bornean Nepenthes demonstrate novel nutrient acquisition strategies. Notably, three giant montane species are engaged in a mutualistic association with the mountain treeshrew, Tupaia montana, in which the treeshrew defecates into the pitchers while visiting them to feed on nectar secretions on the pitchers' lids

Changes in the use of coronary artery revascularization procedures in the Department of Veterans Affairs, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 1991–1999

BACKGROUND: There have been dramatic increases in the number of coronary artery bypass surgeries (CABS) and percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) performed during the last decade. Whether this finding is true for revascularization procedures performed in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers is the subject of this paper. METHODS: This study compared the number of revascularization procedures and rates of use in the VA, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Included were men who underwent isolated CABS and/or PCI, including stenting, between 1991 and 1999, although data for the Nationwide Inpatient Sample were available only between 1993 and 1997. Age adjusted use rates were calculated with the direct method of standardization. RESULTS: The percent of users of VA healthcare 75 years and older increased from 10% in 1991 to 20% in 1999. In the VA, the number of isolated CABS declined from 6227 in 1991 to 6147 in 1999, whereas age adjusted rates declined from 167.6 per 100,000 in 1991 to 107.9 per 100,000 in 1999. In the 2 national surveys, both the estimated numbers of procedures and use rates increased over time. In all 3 settings, there were increases in both numbers and rate of PCI from 1993, although in the VA, use rates decreased from 191.2 per 100,000 in 1996 to 139.7 per 100,000 in 1999. VA use rates for both CABS and PCI were lower than those in the 2 national surveys. CONCLUSION: Age adjusted rates of CABS and PCI were lower in the VA than in 2 national surveys. Since 1996, there has been a decrease in the rate of use of revascularization procedures in the VA

LEMUR: Large European Module for solar Ultraviolet Research. European contribution to JAXA's Solar-C mission

Understanding the solar outer atmosphere requires concerted, simultaneous solar observations from the visible to the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) and soft X-rays, at high spatial resolution (between 0.1" and 0.3"), at high temporal resolution (on the order of 10 s, i.e., the time scale of chromospheric dynamics), with a wide temperature coverage (0.01 MK to 20 MK, from the chromosphere to the flaring corona), and the capability of measuring magnetic fields through spectropolarimetry at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Simultaneous spectroscopic measurements sampling the entire temperature range are particularly important. These requirements are fulfilled by the Japanese Solar-C mission (Plan B), composed of a spacecraft in a geosynchronous orbit with a payload providing a significant improvement of imaging and spectropolarimetric capabilities in the UV, visible, and near-infrared with respect to what is available today and foreseen in the near future. The Large European Module for solar Ultraviolet Research (LEMUR), described in this paper, is a large VUV telescope feeding a scientific payload of high-resolution imaging spectrographs and cameras. LEMUR consists of two major components: a VUV solar telescope with a 30 cm diameter mirror and a focal length of 3.6 m, and a focal-plane package composed of VUV spectrometers covering six carefully chosen wavelength ranges between 17 and 127 nm. The LEMUR slit covers 280" on the Sun with 0.14" per pixel sampling. In addition, LEMUR is capable of measuring mass flows velocities (line shifts) down to 2 km/s or better. LEMUR has been proposed to ESA as the European contribution to the Solar C mission.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figures. To appear on Experimental Astronom

Ante- and postmortem tau in autosomal dominant and late-onset Alzheimer\u27s disease

Antemortem tau positron emission tomography imaging suggests elevated tau pathology in autosomal dominant versus late-onset Alzheimer\u27s disease at equivalent clinical stages, but does not implicate the specific tau pathologies responsible. Here we made stereological measurements of tau neurofibrillary tangles, neuritic plaques, and neuropil threads and found compared to late-onset Alzheimer\u27s disease, autosomal dominant Alzheimer\u27s disease showed even greater tangle and thread burdens. Regional tau burden resembled that observed in tau imaging of a separate cohort at earlier clinical stages. Finally, our results suggest tau imaging measures total tau burden in Alzheimer\u27s disease, composed predominantly of tangle and thread pathology

Neutrophils in cancer: neutral no more

Neutrophils are indispensable antagonists of microbial infection and facilitators of wound healing. In the cancer setting, a newfound appreciation for neutrophils has come into view. The traditionally held belief that neutrophils are inert bystanders is being challenged by the recent literature. Emerging evidence indicates that tumours manipulate neutrophils, sometimes early in their differentiation process, to create diverse phenotypic and functional polarization states able to alter tumour behaviour. In this Review, we discuss the involvement of neutrophils in cancer initiation and progression, and their potential as clinical biomarkers and therapeutic targets