Economic Growth as an Essential Factor for Reducing the Energy Intensity of the Gross Regional Product

Creating regional programs for energy efficient development, policymakers rely on the targets of the Federal Energy Strategy, planning to reduce the energy intensity of gross regional product (GRP) by 40 % or more until 2035. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the validity of the set targets, as well as the limitations occur in the process of GRP energy intensity reduction. Based on the model calculations, the study investigates the possibilities and limitations of reducing GRP energy intensity in the Russian Federation in the period 2018 — 2035 on the example of the Samara region. The interrelated economic and energy models of the Samara region allowed calculating and testing the scenarios of regional energy efficient development. The analysis considered the targets of state energy saving and energy efficiency programmes, declared in the draft Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035. The research established that economic growth is essential for reducing GRP energy intensity. The increase in economic growth means its greater contribution to GRP energy intensity reduction. Economic growth reduces the energy intensity of GRP due to several reasons. They include savings from the increase in the production of goods and services; advanced growth of GRP economy compared to the growth of capital-intensive fuel and energy industry; growing lag between the amount of energy-consuming equipment of the population and the value of GRP. The example of the Samara region demonstrates that it is possible to reduce GRP energy intensity by 40 % in the period 2018–2035 only with an average annual economic growth of at least 5 %, including the implementation of all industrial energy saving and energy efficiency programmes stated in the Energy Strategy. The same conclusions are valid for the Russian economy in general. If the average annual development rate of the Russian economy is below 4 %-5 %, it will be impossible to reach the main target of the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035, which is the reduction of energy intensity of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2035 by 34 % compared to 2015. Public authorities can use the study results when developing strategic planning documents.Разработчики региональных стратегий при формировании региональных программ энергоэффективного развития ориентируются на целевые показатели федеральной энергетической стратегии, планируя снижение энергоемкости валового регионального продукта (ВРП) на 40 % и более до 2035 г. Возникают вопросы, насколько обоснованы эти целевые ориентиры и какие ограничения возникают на пути снижения энергоемкости ВРП. В статье на базе модельных расчетов исследованы возможности и ограничения снижения энергоемкости валового регионального продукта (ВРП) субъекта Российской Федерации на горизонте 2018–2035 гг. на примере Самарской области. Расчеты проводились на взаимосвязанных моделях экономики и энергетики Самарской области, на которых отрабатывались сценарии энергоэффективного развития региона с учетом целевых показателей государственных программ по энергосбережению и повышению энергоэффективности, декларированных в проекте Энергетической стратегии России на период до 2035 г. В результате исследований установлено, что экономический рост является важнейшим условием снижения удельной энергоемкости ВРП, причем чем выше экономический рост, тем больше его вклад в снижение удельной энергоемкости ВРП. Показано, что экономический рост снижает удельную энергоемкость ВРП за счет экономии от растущего масштаба производства товаров и услуг, опережающего роста ВРП экономики по сравнению с ростом капиталоемких отраслей ТЭК, нарастающего отставания объема энергопотребляющего имущества населения от объема ВРП. На примере Самарской области показано, что снижение энергоемкости ВРП на 40 % на горизонте 2018–2035 гг. осуществимо только при среднегодовом экономическом росте не менее 5 % даже при абсолютном выполнении всех отраслевых программ по энергосбережению и повышению энергетической эффективности, заявленных в Энергетической стратегии. Аналогичные выводы справедливы и для российской экономики в целом. Если экономика России будет развиваться среднегодовыми темпами ниже 4–5 %, то основной целевой индикатор Энергетической стратегии России на период до 2035 г. — снижение энергоемкости ВВП к 2035 г. на 34 % относительно 2015 г. будет принципиально недостижимо. Результаты исследования могут быть полезны органам государственной власти при разработке документов стратегического планирования.The article has been prepared in the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation № 26.4131.2017/PCh, the project “Development of methods and information technologies of macroeconomic modelling and strategic planning of energy efficient development of energy industry of the territorial subject of the Russian Federation”.Статья подготовлена в рамках государственного задания Министерства образования и науки РФ № 26.4131.2017/ПЧ, проект «Разработка методов и информационных технологий макроэкономического моделирования и стратегического планирования энергоэффективного развития ТЭК субъекта Российской Федерации»

Modelling of regulatory factor and managerial impact assessment in the regional economy sectors: a case-study of the Kaliningrad region (Russia)

This article discusses the methodology of developing tools for assessing regulatory factors and managerial impacts on the regional economy and individual sectors and businesses. The potential of projection models is investigated, including balance models, convergence of regional and sectoral projection and compiling reliable and representative data sets capable of describing the current economic situation. An attempt was made to develop a series of models for several regional economies; to that end, the modelling of managerial and regulatory impact assessment was used in combination with the well-known value chain approach. In the interests of effective public administration, one of the requirements is to create sectoral model formats compatible with the regional projection models. Results of pilot modelling managerial and regulatory impacts on Kaliningrad region’s economies are presented through examples of agribusiness, transport, industry, tourism and recreation. Implementation of regulatory impact modelling in the framework of the suggested approach is proved for other regions. The main advantage of the developed models for the regional management is their ability to reduce uncertainty in decision-making due to obtaining estimates of the impact of the decisions on the changing situation and the conditions for the development of sectors and industries

Strategic planning of energy-efficient development of a region of the Russian federation

When developing regional strategies, the effectiveness of energy solutions must be linked to the overall economic efficiency of regional development, since the targets for energy-efficient development may conflict with the objectives of the regional economy as a whole. In the article, the task of energy-efficient development of a region of the Russian Federation is reduced to the search for the agreed scenarios of the development of fuel and energy complex (FEC) and the regional economy. These scenarios allow achieving a maximum approximation to the stated goals for the set of energy and economic indicators. I have developed a model of the FEC of a region as a dynamic CGE-model. It is developed as a part of the general model of the socio-economic activity of a region. This model represents the interrelated processes of production, processing, transportation and the use of all types of fuel and energy resources in a region. I propose the forecasting methodology of balanced development of the economy and fuel and energy complex. This methodology provides iterative harmonization of forecasts for consumption and production of energy based on regional fuel and energy balance (FEB). At the same time, the FEB developed within the framework of the FEC model is a part of the overall product-sector balance of the economy, which plays the role of the “balance of balances”. It allows to simulate the interaction of FEC and the rest of the economy through inter-balance relations. Based on the developed methods and models, I have implemented the information technology of situation forecasting and strategic planning in the form of forecasting and analytical tool. This tool simulates the scenarios of energy-efficient development of the economy of the Samara region. As an example, the article presents the assessment of energy efficiency for an option of Samara region development according to the target scenario of Russia's Energy Strategy for the period up to 2035. © 2018 Economy of Region. All rights reserved.Разработана динамическая многоотраслевая модель топливно-энергетического комплекса в составе общей модели социально-экономической деятельности региона, которая формирует взаимосвязанные процессы производства, переработки, транспортировки и использования всех видов топливно-энергетических ресурсов в регионе. Предложена методология прогнозирования сбалансированного развития экономики и топливно-энергетического комплекса. Приведена оценка энергоэффективного развития экономики Самарской области.The article has been prepared in the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation No 26.4131.2017/PCh, Project Development of methods and information technologies of macroeconomic modelling and strategi