An age-structured SVEAIR epidemiological model

In this paper, we introduce and study an age-structured epidemiological compartment model and its respective problem, applied but not limited to the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate the role of the age of the individuals in the evolution of epidemiological phenomena. We investigate the well-posedness of the model, as well as the global dynamics of it in the sense of basic reproduction number via constructing Lyapunov functions

Identifying and ranking causal biochemical biomarkers for breast cancer: a Mendelian randomisation study

Background: Only a few of the 34 biochemical biomarkers measured in the UK Biobank (UKB) have been associated with breast cancer, with many associations suffering from possible confounding and reverse causation. This study aimed to screen and rank all UKB biochemical biomarkers for possible causal relationships with breast cancer. Methods: We conducted two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses on ~420,000 women by leveraging summary-level genetic exposure associations from the UKB study (n = 194,174) and summary-level genetic outcome associations from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (n = 228,951). Our exposures included all 34 biochemical biomarkers in the UKB, and our outcomes were overall, oestrogen-positive, and oestrogen-negative breast cancer. We performed inverse-variance weighted MR, weighted median MR, MR-Egger, and MR-PRESSO for 30 biomarkers for which we found multiple instrumental variables. We additionally performed multivariable MR to adjust for known risk factors, bidirectional MR to investigate reverse causation, and MR Bayesian model averaging to rank the significant biomarkers by their genetic evidence. Results: Increased genetic liability to overall breast cancer was robustly associated with the following biomarkers by decreasing importance: testosterone (odds ratio (OR): 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.21), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04–1.13), insulin-like growth factor 1 (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02–1.13), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.89–0.98). Conclusions Our findings support a likely causal role of genetically predicted levels of testosterone, HDL cholesterol, and IGF-1, as well as a novel potential role of ALP in breast cancer aetiology. Further studies are needed to understand full disease pathways that may inform breast cancer prevention

Associations of body shape phenotypes with sex steroids and their binding proteins in the UK Biobank cohort

Associations of sex steroids and their binding proteins with body shape are unclear, because waist and hip circumference are correlated strongly with body size. We defined body shape using “a body shape index” (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which are independent of weight and height by design, and examined associations in multivariable generalised linear models for the UK Biobank cohort (179,902 men, 207,444 women). Total testosterone was associated inversely with ABSI, especially in men. Free testosterone was lowest for large-ABSI-large-HI (“wide”) and highest for small-ABSI-small-HI (“slim”) in men, but lowest for small-ABSI-large-HI (“pear”) and highest for large-ABSI-small-HI (“apple”) in women. Oestradiol was associated inversely with ABSI in obese pre-menopausal women but positively with HI in obese men and post-menopausal women not using hormone replacement therapy. Sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG) was associated inversely with ABSI but positively with HI and was lowest for “apple” and highest for “pear” phenotype in both sexes. Albumin was associated inversely with HI in women, but matched the pattern of free testosterone in obese men (lowest for “wide”, highest for “slim” phenotype). In conclusion, sex steroids and their binding proteins are associated with body shape, including hip as well as waist size, independent of body size

Interactions of platelets with obesity in relation to lung cancer risk in the UK Biobank cohort

Background: Platelet count (PLT) is associated positively with lung cancer risk but has a more complex association with body mass index (BMI), positive only in women (mainly never smokers) and inverse in men (mainly ever smokers), raising the question whether platelets interact with obesity in relation to lung cancer risk. Prospective associations of platelet size (an index of platelet maturity and activity) with lung cancer risk are unclear. Methods: We examined the associations of PLT, mean platelet volume (MPV), and platelet distribution width (PDW) (each individually, per one standard deviation increase) with lung cancer risk in UK Biobank men and women using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for BMI and covariates. We calculated Relative Excess Risk from Interaction (RERI) with obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2), dichotomising platelet parameters at ≥median (sex-specific), and multiplicative interactions with BMI (continuous scale). We examined heterogeneity according to smoking status (never, former, current smoker) and antiaggregant/anticoagulant use (no/yes). Results: During a mean follow-up of 10.4 years, 1620 lung cancers were ascertained in 192,355 men and 1495 lung cancers in 218,761 women. PLT was associated positively with lung cancer risk in men (hazard ratio HR=1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09–1.20) and women (HR=1.09; 95%CI: 1.03–1.15) but interacted inversely with BMI only in men (RERI=-0.53; 95%CI: -0.80 to -0.26 for high-PLT-obese; HR=0.92; 95%CI=0.88–0.96 for PLTBMI). Only in men, MPV was associated inversely with lung cancer risk (HR=0.95; 95%CI: 0.90–0.99) and interacted positively with BMI (RERI=0.27; 95%CI=0.09–0.45 for high-MPV-obese; HR=1.08; 95%CI=1.04–1.13 for MPVBMI), while PDW was associated positively (HR=1.05; 95%CI: 1.00–1.10), with no evidence for interactions. The associations with PLT were consistent by smoking status, but MPV was associated inversely only in current smokers and PDW positively only in never/former smokers. The interactions with BMI were retained for at least eight years of follow-up and were consistent by smoking status but were attenuated in antiaggregant/anticoagulant users. Conclusions: In men, PLT was associated positively and MPV inversely with lung cancer risk and these associations appeared hindered by obesity. In women, only PLT was associated positively, with little evidence for interaction with obesity

Associations of body shape index (ABSI) and hip index with liver, metabolic, and inflammatory biomarkers in the UK Biobank cohort

Associations of liver, metabolic, and inflammatory biomarkers in blood with body shape are unclear, because waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) are dependent on overall body size, resulting in bias. We have used the allometric “a body shape index” (ABSI = WC(mm)∗Weight(kg)-2/3∗Height(m)5/6) and hip index (HIwomen = HC(cm)∗Weight(kg)-0.482∗Height(cm)0.310, HImen = HC(cm)∗Weight(kg)-2/5∗Height(cm)1/5), which are independent of body mass index (BMI) by design, in multivariable linear regression models for 121,879 UK Biobank men and 135,559 women. Glucose, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), triglycerides, low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein-B, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gamma-glutamyltransferase, and lymphocytes were associated positively with BMI and ABSI but inversely with HI. High-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein-A1 were associated inversely with BMI and ABSI but positively with HI. Lipid-related biomarkers and ALT were associated only with HI in obese men. C-reactive protein, neutrophils, monocytes, and alkaline phosphatase were associated positively, while bilirubin was associated inversely, with BMI and ABSI but not with HI. Associations were consistent within the clinical reference ranges but were lost or changed direction for low or high biomarker levels. Our study confirms associations with waist and hip size, independent of BMI, for metabolic biomarkers but only with waist size for inflammatory biomarkers, suggesting different contribution of the mechanistic pathways related to body shape

A Body Shape Index (ABSI), hip index and risk of cancer in the UK Biobank cohort

Abdominal size is associated positively with the risk of some cancers but the influence of body mass index (BMI) and gluteofemoral size is unclear because waist and hip circumference are strongly correlated with BMI. We examined associations of 33 cancers with A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which are independent of BMI by design, and compared these with waist and hip circumference, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models in UK Biobank. During a mean follow up of seven years, 14,682 incident cancers were ascertained in 200,289 men and 12,965 cancers in 230,326 women. In men, ABSI was associated positively with cancers of the head and neck (hazard ratio HR=1.14; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.26 per one standard deviation increment), oesophagus (adenocarcinoma, HR=1.27; 1.12-1.44), gastric cardia (HR=1.31; 1.07-1.61), colon (HR=1.18; 1.10-1.26), rectum (HR=1.13; 1.04-1.22), lung (adenocarcinoma, HR=1.16; 1.03-1.30; squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC), HR=1.33; 1.17-1.52), and bladder (HR=1.15; 1.04-1.27), while HI was associated inversely with cancers of the oesophagus (adenocarcinoma, HR=0.89; 0.79-1.00), gastric cardia (HR=0.79; 0.65-0.96), colon (HR=0.92; 0.86-0.98), liver (HR=0.86; 0.75-0.98), and multiple myeloma (HR=0.86; 0.75-1.00). In women, ABSI was associated positively with cancers of the head and neck (HR=1.27; 1.10-1.48), oesophagus (SCC, HR=1.37; 1.07-1.76), colon (HR=1.08; 1.01-1.16), lung (adenocarcinoma, HR=1.17; 1.06-1.29; SCC, HR=1.40; 1.20-1.63; small-cell, HR=1.39; 1.14-1.69), kidney (clear-cell, HR=1.25; 1.03-1.50), and post-menopausal endometrium (HR=1.11; 1.02-1.20), while HI was associated inversely with skin SCC (HR=0.91; 0.83-0.99), post-menopausal kidney cancer (HR=0.77; 0.67-0.88) and post-menopausal melanoma (HR=0.90; 0.83-0.98). Unusually, ABSI was associated inversely with melanoma in men (HR=0.89; 0.82-0.96) and pre-menopausal women (HR=0.77; 0.65-0.91). Waist and hip circumference reflected associations with BMI, when examined individually, and provided biased risk estimates, when combined with BMI. In conclusion, preferential positive associations of ABSI or inverse of HI with several major cancers indicate an important role of factors determining body shape in cancer development

Sex differences in the associations of body size and body shape with platelets in the UK Biobank cohort

Background: Obesity is accompanied with low-grade inflammation and leucocytosis and increases the risk of venous thromboembolism. Associations with platelet count, however, are unclear because several studies have reported positive associations only in women. Associations with body shape are also unclear, because waist and hip circumferences reflect overall body size, as well as body shape, and are correlated strongly positively with body mass index (BMI). Methods: We evaluated body shape with the allometric body shape index (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which reflect waist and hip size among individuals with the same weight and height and are uncorrelated with BMI. We examined the associations of BMI, ABSI, and HI with platelet count, mean platelet volume (MPV), and platelet distribution width (PDW) in multivariable linear regression models for 125,435 UK Biobank women and 114,760 men. We compared men with women, post-menopausal with pre-menopausal women, and older (≥52 years) with younger (<52 years) men. Results: BMI was associated positively with platelet count in women, more strongly in pre-menopausal than in post-menopausal, and weakly positively in younger men but strongly inversely in older men. Associations of BMI with platelet count were shifted towards the inverse direction for daily alcohol consumption and current smoking, resulting in weaker positive associations in women and stronger inverse associations in men, compared to alcohol≤3 times/month and never smoking. BMI was associated inversely with MPV and PDW in pre-menopausal women but positively in post-menopausal women and in men. ABSI was associated positively with platelet count, similarly in women and men, while HI was associated weakly inversely only in women. ABSI was associated inversely and HI positively with MPV but not with PDW and only in women. Platelet count was correlated inversely with platelet size and positively with leucocyte counts, most strongly with neutrophils. Conclusions: Competing factors determine the associations of BMI with platelet count. Factors with sexually-dimorphic action (likely thrombopoietin, inflammatory cytokines, or cortisol), contribute to a positive association, more prominently in women than in men, while age-dependent factors (likely related to liver damage and fibrosis), contribute to an inverse association, more prominently in men than in women

Letter to the editor on Body mass index and 20-specific cancers-re-analyses of dose-response meta-analyses of observational studies

Peer reviewe

Estimating effects by combining instrumental variables with case-control designs: the role of principal stratification

The instrumental variable framework is commonly used in the estimation of causal effects from cohort samples. In the case of more efficient designs such as the case-control study, however, the combination of the instrumental variable and complex sampling designs requires new methodological consideration. As the prevalence of Mendelian randomization studies is increasing and the cost of genotyping and expression data can be high, the analysis of data gathered from more cost-effective sampling designs is of prime interest. We show that the standard instrumental variable analysis is not applicable to the case-control design and can lead to erroneous estimation and inference. We also propose a method based on principal stratification for the analysis of data arising from the combination of case-control sampling and instrumental variable design and illustrate it with a study in oncology

Metabolic syndrome and cognition: A systematic review across cognitive domains and a bibliometric analysis

The aim of this review is to investigate the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cognitive decline in distinct cognitive domains, and to perform a complementary study description through the bibliometric analysis. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched from inception to 15 December 2021 to identify longitudinal studies that examined the association of MetS with incident decline, in order to prevent reverse causality. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis checklist was used to conduct the present systematic review. Thirty studies were included and results were analyzed across the cognitive domains of global cognition, memory, executive functions, attention, visuoconstructive abilities, and language. The majority of the studies reviewed did not report statistically significant results for most cognitive domains investigated, and decline in specific cognitive domains was not consistently associated with the presence of MetS. Meta-analyses were not conducted due to the high degree of between-study heterogeneity regarding the MetS definitions, the cognitive domains examined, the specific tests used for each cognitive domain and the different measures of association used. Bibliometric analysis revealed that most studies are conducted by research teams from USA and China, and that cognitive tasks that reflect real-life abilities are rarely examined. Future studies should employ larger sample sizes, longer follow-up periods, a global consensus for MetS definition and standardized tests of the above mentioned cognitive domains as well as problem-solving tasks with high sensitivity and specificity to clarify the impact of MetS on cognition and its underlying mechanisms