A stochastic model for a macroscale hybrid renewable energy system

The current supply for electricity generation mostly relies on fossil fuels, which are finite and pose a great threat to the environment. Therefore, energy models that involve clean and renewable energy sources are necessary to ease the concerns about the electricity generation needed to meet the projected demand. Here, we mathematically model a hybrid energy generation and allocation system where the intermittent solar generation is supported by conventional hydropower stations and diesel generation and time variability of the sources are balanced using the water stored in the reservoirs. We develop a two-stage stochastic model to capture the effect of streamflows which present significant inter-annual variability and uncertainty. Using sample case studies from India, we determine the required hydropower generation capacity and storage along with the minimal diesel usage to support 1 GWpeak solar power generation. We compare isolated systems with the connected systems (through inter-regional transmission) to see the effects of geographic diversity on the infrastructure sizing and quantify the benefits of resource-sharing. We develop the optimal sizing relationship between solar and hydropower generation capacities given realistic cost parameters and real data and examine how this relationship would differ as the contribution of diesel is reduced. We also show that if the output of the solar power stations can be controlled (i.e. spill is allowed in our setting), operating them below their maximum energy generation levels may reduce the unit cost of the system. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd

Hotspots for social and ecological impacts from freshwater stress and storage loss

Humans and ecosystems are deeply connected to, and through, the hydrological cycle. However, impacts of hydrological change on social and ecological systems are infrequently evaluated together at the global scale. Here, we focus on the potential for social and ecological impacts from freshwater stress and storage loss. We find basins with existing freshwater stress are drying (losing storage) disproportionately, exacerbating the challenges facing the water stressed versus non-stressed basins of the world. We map the global gradient in social-ecological vulnerability to freshwater stress and storage loss and identify hotspot basins for prioritization (n = 168). These most-vulnerable basins encompass over 1.5 billion people, 17% of global food crop production, 13% of global gross domestic product, and hundreds of significant wetlands. There are thus substantial social and ecological benefits to reducing vulnerability in hotspot basins, which can be achieved through hydro-diplomacy, social adaptive capacity building, and integrated water resources management practices

Human-water interface in hydrological modeling: Current status and future directions

Over the last decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes at an unprecedented scale. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g., irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs are incorporating human impacts on hydrological cycle, yet human representations in hydrological models remain challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modeling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human-water interface in hydrological models

Human–water interface in hydrological modelling: current status and future directions

Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of largescale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human-water interface in hydrological models

Understanding management gurus and historical narratives: The benefits of a historic turn in management and organization studies

A historic turn in organization studies requires a basic theoretical understanding of ‘doing history’ and an appreciation of the centrality of narrative in history. Following the cultural turn in history, narrativist historians and philosophers of history such as Hayden White, Frank Ankersmit and Paul Ricoeur have made the case that narrative is an essential and unavoidable component in history. We demonstrate the persuasive capacity of narrative through a narrativist critique of three best-selling ‘management gurus’. This analysis illustrates the following: (1) the narrative features of popular organizational theories; (2) the basis of the success of guru literature; and (3) why gurus and organizational scientists themselves do not understand the narratological mechanisms behind their success. Finally, we maintain that historical narrativism offers the possibility for positioning organizational history as a highly relevant field for management academics, gurus and even managers, providing support for a historic turn

Private monitoring, collusion, and the timing of information

When a principal's monitoring information is private (nonverifiable), the agent should be concerned that the principal could misrepresent the information to reduce the agent's wage or collect a monetary penalty. Restoring credibility may lead to an extreme waste of resources-the so-called burning of money. A more realistic and efficient outcome is feasible when the private information arrives in time to rescale the agent's effort. Rescaling is more effective than pure monetary penalties because effort has different values to different parties whereas money is equally valuable to all parties. Furthermore, when rescaling is feasible, private monitoring is more efficient than public monitoring subject to collusion because nonmonetary penalties are ineffective to deter collusion.SCOPUS: ar.jFLWINinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

A stochastic model for a macroscale hybrid renewable energy system

The current supply for electricity generation mostly relies on fossil fuels, which are finite and pose a great threat to the environment. Therefore, energy models that involve clean and renewable energy sources are necessary to ease the concerns about the electricity generation needed to meet the projected demand. Here, we mathematically model a hybrid energy generation and allocation system where the intermittent solar generation is supported by conventional hydropower stations and diesel generation and time variability of the sources are balanced using the water stored in the reservoirs. We develop a two-stage stochastic model to capture the effect of streamflows which present significant inter-annual variability and uncertainty. Using sample case studies from India, we determine the required hydropower generation capacity and storage along with the minimal diesel usage to support 1 GWpeak solar power generation. We compare isolated systems with the connected systems (through inter-regional transmission) to see the effects of geographic diversity on the infrastructure sizing and quantify the benefits of resource-sharing. We develop the optimal sizing relationship between solar and hydropower generation capacities given realistic cost parameters and real data and examine how this relationship would differ as the contribution of diesel is reduced. We also show that if the output of the solar power stations can be controlled (i.e. spill is allowed in our setting), operating them below their maximum energy generation levels may reduce the unit cost of the system. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd

Diagnosis and management of connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease in Australia and New Zealand: a position statement from the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand

Pulmonary complications in CTD are common and can involve the interstitium, airways, pleura and pulmonary vasculature. ILD can occur in all CTD (CTD-ILD), and mayvaryfromlimited,non-progressive lung involvemen to fulminant, life-threatening disease. Given the potential for major adverse outcomes in CTD-ILD, accurate diagnosis, assessment and careful consideration of therapeutic intervention are a priority. Limited data are available to guide management decisions in CTD-ILD. Autoimmune- mediated pulmonary inflammation is considered a key pathobiological pathway in these disorders, and immuno- suppressive therapy is generally regarded the cornerstone of treatment for severe and/or progressive CTD-ILD. How- ever, the natural history of CTD-ILD in individual patients can be difficult to predict, and deciding who to treat, when and with what agent can be challenging. Establishing realistic therapeutic goals from both the patient and clinician perspective requires considerable expertise. The document aims to provide a framework for clinicians to aid in the assessment and management of ILD in the major CTD. A suggested approach to diagnosis and monitoring of CTD-ILD and, where available, evidence-based, disease- specific approaches to treatment have been providedAdelle S. Jee, Robert Sheehy, Peter Hopkins, Tamera J. Corte, Christopher Grainge, Lauren K. Troy … et al