Limitations of the MELD score in predicting mortality or need for removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with a poor prognosis and liver transplantation provides the only curative treatment option with excellent long-term results. The relative shortage of organ donors renders the allocation algorithms of organs essential. The optimal strategy based on scoring systems and/or waiting time is still under debate.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data sets of 268 consecutive patients listed for single-organ liver transplantation for nonfulminant liver disease between 2003 and 2005 were included into the study. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores of all patients at the time of listing were used for calculation. The predictive ability not only for mortality on the waiting list but also for the need for withdrawal from the waiting list was calculated for both scores. The Mann-Whitney-U Test was used for the univariate analysis and the AUC-Model for discrimination of the scores.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the univariate analysis comparing patients who are still on the waiting list and patients who died or were removed from the waiting list due to poor conditions, the serum albumin, bilirubin INR, and CTP and MELD scores as well as the presence of ascites and encephalopathy were significantly different between the groups (p < 0.05), whereas serum creatinine and urea showed no difference.</p> <p>Comparing the predictive abilities of CTP and MELD scores, the best discrimination between patients still alive on the waiting list and patients who died on or were removed from the waiting list was achieved at a CTP score of ≥9 and a MELD score of ≥14.4. The sensitivity and specificity to identify mortality or severe deterioration for CTP was 69.0% and 70.5%, respectively; for MELD, it was 62.1% and 72.7%, respectively. This result was supported by the AUC analysis showing a strong trend for superiority of CTP over MELD scores (AUROC 0.73 and 0.68, resp.; p = 0.091).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The long term prediction of mortality or removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation might be better assessed by the CTP score than the MELD score. This might have implications for the development of new improved scoring systems.</p

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Pretransplant Prediction of Posttransplant Survival for Liver Recipients with Benign End-Stage Liver Diseases: A Nonlinear Model

Background: The scarcity of grafts available necessitates a system that considers expected posttransplant survival, in addition to pretransplant mortality as estimated by the MELD. So far, however, conventional linear techniques have failed to achieve sufficient accuracy in posttransplant outcome prediction. In this study, we aim to develop a pretransplant predictive model for liver recipients ’ survival with benign end-stage liver diseases (BESLD) by a nonlinear method based on pretransplant characteristics, and compare its performance with a BESLD-specific prognostic model (MELD) and a generalillness severity model (the sequential organ failure assessment score, or SOFA score). Methodology/Principal Findings: With retrospectively collected data on 360 recipients receiving deceased-donor transplantation for BESLD between February 1999 and August 2009 in the west China hospital of Sichuan university, we developed a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network to predict one-year and two-year survival probability after transplantation. The performances of the MLP, SOFA, and MELD were assessed by measuring both calibration ability and discriminative power, with Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic analysis, respectively. By the forward stepwise selection, donor age and BMI; serum concentration of HB, Crea, ALB, TB, ALT, INR, Na +; presence of pretransplant diabetes; dialysis prior to transplantation, and microbiologically proven sepsis were identified to be the optimal input features. The MLP, employing 18 input neurons and 12 hidden neurons, yielded high predictive accuracy, wit

Challenging the Moral Status of Blood Donation

The World Health Organisation encourages that blood donation becomes voluntary and unremunerated, a system already operated in the UK. Drawing on public documents and videos, this paper argues that blood donation is regarded and presented as altruistic and supererogatory. In advertisements, donation is presented as something undertaken for the benefit of others, a matter attracting considerable gratitude from recipients and the collecting organisation. It is argued that regarding blood donation as an act of supererogation is wrongheaded, and an alternative account of blood donation as moral obligation is presented. Two arguments are offered in support of this position. First, the principle of beneficence, understood in a broad consequentialist framework obliges donation where the benefit to the recipient is large and the cost to the donor relatively small. This argument can be applied, with differing levels of normativity, to various acts of donation. Second, the wrongness of free riding requires individuals to contribute to collective systems from which they benefit. Alone and in combination these arguments present moral reasons for donation, recognised in communication strategies elsewhere. Research is required to evaluate the potential effects on donation of a campaign which presents blood donation as moral obligation, but of wider importance is the recognition that other-regarding considerations in relation to our own as well as others’ health result in a range not only of choices but also of obligations

Population‐based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications in a prospective population‐based cohort. Methods Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two‐level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications. Conclusion Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics

Ideology and identity: A psychoanalytic investigation of a social phenomenon

This paper uses psychoanalytic thinking to understand the way individuals come to be in a social group that develops an ideology. LeBon was one of the earliest to consider destructive groups and the distortion of individuality within crowds and mobs, and his work formed the basis of Freud's thinking. Destructive groups are contrasted with constructive ones that can achieve creative and work-oriented functioning. Destructive groups have various characteristics, one of which is the place that ideas have in the group and in the minds of the members. When ideas become overvalued and thus an ideology, the relation between the individual and the ideas changes. On one hand, in ordinary constructive work and groups, the idea is an abstract notion useable in aspirations and achievements; and on the other hand, in ideological and destructive groups, the individual is equated with the idea, which becomes an end in itself. This movement involves the pressure of social forces upon forms of individual distress that affects their sense of themselves. Following Freud's views on the group ideal, it is possible to understand the excitement in primitive destructive groups, their unreality and the erosion of individuality as coming from the equation of self with the ideal