Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance

We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity score matching is most effective, but the detailed implementation is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact.

Down from the Mountain: Skill Upgrading and Wages in Appalachia

Despite evidence that skilled labor is increasingly concentrated in cities, whether regional wage inequality is predominantly due to differences in skill levels or returns is unknown. We compare Appalachia, with its wide mix of urban and rural areas, to other parts of the U.S., and find that gaps in both skill levels and returns account for the lack of high wage male workers. For women, skill shortages are important across the distribution. Because rural wage gaps are insignificant, our results suggest that widening wage inequality between Appalachia and the rest of the U.S. owes to a shortage of skilled cities.wage inequality, region

Economic Growth in Kentucky: Why Does Kentucky Lag Behind the Rest of the South?

Excerpts from the executive summary: Kentucky has consistently been one of the poorest states in the country between 1939 and the present. On top of this already low level of income, Kentucky has experienced fairly slow growth in output in recent years. Between 1997 and 2004, Kentucky had an average annual growth in real gross state product (GSP) of 1.6 percent, ranking 43 rd in terms of growth in GSP relative to the rest of the states. In contrast to Kentucky’s relatively stagnant growth, many of Kentucky’s neighbors, especially to the south, have experienced relatively rapid growth in average earnings in recent years. In 1969, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee all had levels of average earnings that were 77-82 percent of the average earnings in the U.S., while Alabama had average earnings that were approximately 70 percent of the national average. By 2004, Kentucky’s average earnings remained at approximately 80 percent of the national average while average earnings in Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee had grown to 90 percent of the national average, and average earnings in Alabama had grown to over 85 percent of the national average. In other words, while relative average earnings in Kentucky has been flat for the past forty years, average earnings in a number of southern states similar to Kentucky have experienced fairly rapid relative growth since 1969. In this report, we examine whether there are identifiable factors that can explain why Kentucky remains mired at the bottom of the income distribution. We start by first estimating a standard growth regression using data from all the states in the continental U.S. to examine what factors are most important in explaining why some states have grown faster. For this part of the report, we draw on data from a number of sources covering the period from 1969 to 2004. Next we compare the growth of these factors in Kentucky with the growth of these factors in our comparison states: Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. This comparison will allow us to identify which of these factors explain why these other states have grown faster than Kentucky. Finally, we examine various policies in our comparison states to see if we can identify specific policies that can explain why a given state experienced differential growth in one of these factors

Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance

This paper uses administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of job training program impact estimates based on alternative nonexperimental methods. In addition to simple regression adjustment, we consider Mahalanobis distance matching and a variety of methods using propensity score matching. In each case, we consider estimates based on levels of post-program earnings as well as difference-in-difference estimates based on comparison of pre and post-program earnings. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity score matching is generally most effective, but the detailed implementation of the method is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data available at the state level can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact.Noexperimental Methods, Matching, Difference-in-Difference

Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques

In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well as how the effect of children varies with the number of children. We also decompose the total effect of children into the direct and indirect components and separately examine the dynamics of these components. Sequential participation decisions for four levels of labor market involvement and fertility decisions are jointly modeled. We allow decisions to be correlated in a general fashion both across time and across choices. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We find that children have a strong effect on a women's labor market behavior in the post-birth period and that differences in expected fertility have a strang effect on labor market behavior in the pre-birth period. We also find that both the direct and indirect effects are large immediately after the birth of a child but that the indirect effect declines quickly over time. The effects of children vary by education and race

Wages, Productivity, and Worker Characteristics: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions and Wage Equations

We use a unique new data set that combines individual worker data with data on workers' employers to estimate plant-level production functions and wage equations, and thus to compare relative marginal products and relative wages for various groups of workers. The data and empirical framework lead to new evidence on numerous questions regarding the determination of wages, questions that hinge on the relationship between wages and marginal products of workers in different demographic groups. These include race and sex discrimination in wages, the causes of rising wages over the life cycle, and the returns to marriage. First, workers who have ever been married are more productive than never-married workers and are paid accordingly. Second, prime-aged workers (aged 35-54) are equally as productive as younger workers, and in some specifications are estimated to receive higher wages. However, older workers (aged 55+) are less productive than younger workers but are paid more. Third, the data indicate no difference between the relative wage and relative productivity of black workers. Finally, with the exception of managerial and professional occupations, women are paid about 25-35% less than men, but estimated productivity differentials for women are generally no larger than 15%, and significantly smaller than the pay differential.

The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism: An Analysis of Maryland and Missouri

State and federal reforms of the 1990s transformed the U.S. cash assistance program for single parents and their children. Despite an extensive literature examining these changes and their impacts, there have been few studies that consider the effects of these reforms from the perspective of the recent period. The analysis here focuses on the characteristics and employment of welfare recipients in Maryland and Missouri, 1991-2004. We find that there has been only modest change in the observable characteristics of those entering, remaining on or leaving welfare, but the importance of employment has grown for each of these groups. We also examine the dynamics of employment and welfare recidivism, comparing cohorts of leavers prior to and after welfare reform. We find that after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working. Although in Maryland those working have earnings that are somewhat below employed leavers prior to reform, in Missouri earnings for employed leavers are unchanged. In both states, the types of jobs leavers hold have not changed substantially, and leavers are less likely to return to welfare following reform.welfare reform

Ambulance Service Ownership and Management: How It Affects Quality of Service Delivery for Medicare Patients

This study investigates how ownership and/or management affects ambulance services across the United States. We investigate whether ambulance quality, measured by patient transportation time, varies by organization type. We estimate the effect of ownership structure on response time variables using data from the National EMS Information System (NEMSIS) for the years 2010–2015, the most comprehensive data set on emergency medical services. Focusing on ground transportation (as opposed to air and water transportation) and on Medicare-eligible (age 65 years and older) patients, we find that, on average, ambulance services owned by fire departments respond faster than those managed by other types of ownership. Specifically, fire-department-owned medical emergency services located in urban areas are approximately 12 percent or six minutes faster than those owned by community nonprofit organizations, and are around five minutes faster than those owned by government agencies. Using some admittedly crude measures of costs, we find no evidence of significant cost differences by ownership structure. Based on evidence from other sources,we find some weak evidence that private-sector ambulances are better than other types of ambulances at collecting payment from patients, private-sector insurance companies,Medicare,and Medicaid. In the end, the strongest conclusion is that few reliable data are available to guide local governments that are trying to decide how to structure emergency services in their region

The Role of Temporary Help Employment in Low-wage Worker Advancement

We examine the effects of temporary help service employment on later earnings and employment for individuals participating in three federal programs providing supportive services to those facing employment difficulties. The programs include Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, whose participants are seriously disadvantaged; a job training program with a highly heterogeneous population of participants; and employment exchange services, whose participants consist of Unemployment Insurance claimants and individuals seeking assistant in obtaining employment. We undertake our analyses for two periods: the late 1990s, a time of very strong economic growth, and shortly after 2000, a time of relative stagnation. Our results suggest that temporary help service firms may facilitate quicker access to jobs for those seeking employment assistance and impart substantial benefits as transitional employment, especially for individuals whose alternatives are severely limited. Those who do not move out of temporary help jobs, however, face substantially poorer prospects, and we observe that nonwhites are more likely than whites to remain in THS positions in the two years following program participation. Our results are robust to program and time period.temporary help, mediated employment, program evaluation