Real options and investment under uncertainty: What do we know?

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Real Options: Examples and Principles of Valuation and Strategy

The paper illustrates the use of real options and game theory principles to value prototypical investment projects and capture important competitive/strategic dimensions in a step-by-step analysis of investment decisions (options) under uncertainty. It first illustrates the application of real options principles to a mining concession and to an R&D program. It then provides examples from innovation cases and uses basic game theory principles to discuss other strategic and competitive aspects, especially applicable to oligopolistic industries like consumer electronics. The issue of whether (and when) it is optimal to compete independently or coordinate/collaborate (e.g., via joint R&D ventures or strategic alliances) is given particular attention

Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games

Corporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes cutting-edge developments in corporate finance and related fields--in particular, real options and game theory--to help bridge this gap. In clear, straightforward exposition and through numerous examples and applications from various industries, Han Smit and Lenos Trigeorgis set forth an extended valuation framework for competitive strategies. The book follows a problem-solving approach that synthesizes ideas from game theory, real options, and strategy. Thinking in terms of options-games can help managers address questions such as: When is it best to invest early to preempt competitive entry, and when to wait? Should a firm compete in R&D or adopt an accommodating stance? How does one value growth options or infrastructure investments? The authors provide a wide range of valuation examples, such as acquisition strategies, R&D investment in high-tech sectors, joint research ventures, product introductions in consumer electronics, infrastructure, and oil exploration investment. Representing a major step beyond standard real options or strategy analysis, and extending the power of real options and strategic thinking in a rigorous fashion, Strategic Investment will be an indispensable guide and resource for corporate managers, MBA students, and academics alike

Value Uncertainty

We examine how time-series volatility of book-to-market (UNC) is priced in equity returns and the relative contributions of its book volatility (variations in earnings and book value) and market volatility components (shocks in required return). UNC captures valuation risk, so stocks with high valuation risk earn higher return. An investment strategy long in high-UNC and short in low-UNC firms generates 8.5% annual risk-adjusted return. UNC valuation risk premium is driven by outperformance of high-UNC firms facing higher information risk and is not explained by established risk factors and firm characteristics

CEO personality traits, strategic flexibility, and firm dynamics

Reexamining CEO personality traits from a real options theory perspective, we suggest that the firm's strategic flexibility can be worsened by CEO conscientiousness and neuroticism. We use a measure of strategic flexibility as the firm's ability to take advantage of heightened volatility, which then results in superior stock returns. Our results suggest that strategic adaptability is impeded by rigid planning, resistance to change (conscientiousness) and lack of emotional stability (neuroticism). For firms that experience a decrease in volatility, the opposite holds. In line with trait activation theory, our results imply that the effect of specific CEO personality traits on firm dynamics and performance is contingent and context-specific. Our findings are economically significant and have important implications concerning CEO selection and management

Flexible Investment Decisions in the Telecommunications Industry: Case Applications using Real Options

The telecommunications sector is one of the most innovative, high-growth, capitalintensive yet volatile sector of the economy. This research addresses critical concerns of how, when, and why an enterprise or a service provider should undertake new investments. The study investigates the power of flexibility in investment decision making process, by applying the real options methodology. Five case applications are studied: a) investment decisions in next generation wireless networks; b) investing in integrated wireless networks; c) migration to wireless broadband internet services; d) valuing deployment of Wi-Fi networks in enterprise markets; and e) valuing Hosted VOIP services for enterprise markets. The case studies are analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively

Taxation of Risky Investment and Paradoxical Investor Behavior

Under uncertainty and irreversibility, real option-based models are widely accepted for assessing investment projects. So far the existing post-tax analyses do not provide a general analytical description of investor reactions towards profit tax rate changes. This paper sets out to fill part of the void. We implement a simple tax system and focus on risky capital market investment and an option to wait. Taxes affect risk-free and risky capital market investment asymmetrically and hence cause distortions. We analytically identify a set of neutral tax rates (tax regimes) that preserve the critical post-tax investment threshold in case of tax rate changes as well as general normal and paradoxical settings. Unlike for other tax paradoxa neither depreciation rules nor loss offset restrictions are responsible for the observed paradoxical reaction. Identifying normal and paradoxical tax regimes can be regarded as a first step to a generalized description of tax effects under uncertainty, both for individual project evaluation as well as for understanding tax effects on an aggregate level