Decision Rules and their Influence on Asset Prices

This paper develops a market microstructure model with asymmetric information in order to quantify the influence which practical decision rules have on asset process. The users of practical decision rules have incomplete information at their disposal and trade in a market with both fully informed and uninformed investors, as well as with a competitive market maker. The users of practical decision rules affect the periodical ask and bid prices in two ways: by means of the precision of their information and through their share in the totality of investors, respectively. The resulting bid-ask spread is positive and proportional to the c.p. variation of these two influencing factors and is attributable to the adverse selection costs.

Investors Facing Risk II: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation When Utility Is Derived From Consumption and Narrowly Framed Financial Investments

This paper studies the attitude of non-professional investors towards financial losses and their decisions concerning wealth allocation among consumption, risky, and risk-free financial assets. We employ a two-dimensional utility setting in which both consumption and financial wealth fluctuations generate utility. The perception of financial wealth is modelled in an extended prospect-theory framework that accounts for both the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point and the impact of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. The decision problem is addressed in two distinct equilibrium settings in the aggregate market with a representative investor, namely with expected and non-expected utility. Empirical estimations performed on the basis of real market data and for various parameter configurations show that both settings similarly describe the attitude towards financial losses. Yet, the recommendations regarding wealth allocation are different. Maximizing expected utility results on average in low total-wealth percentages dedicated to consumption, but supports myopic loss aversion. Non-expected utility yields more reasonable assignments to consumption but also a high preference for risky assets. In this latter setting, myopic loss aversion holds solely when financial wealth fluctuations are viewed as the main utility source and in very soft form.prospect theory, Value-at-Risk, loss aversion, expected utility, non-expected utility

Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs

Der vorliegende Beitrag quantifiziert anhand eines Marktmikrostruktur-Modells mit asymmetrischer Information den Einfluss der Anwender praktischer Entscheidungsregeln auf die Aktienkurse. Letztere werden als unvollständig informierte Anleger betrachtet. Neben diesen Anlegern agieren auf dem Markt vollständig informierte, uninformierte Investoren und ein kompetitiver Market Maker, welcher periodisch zwei Transaktionskurse (Ask/Bid) festlegt. Der Einfluss der unvollständig informierten Anleger auf die Transaktionskurse erfolgt einerseits durch die Genauigkeit ihrer Information, anderseits durch ihren Anteil an der Gesamtheit der Investoren. Die ermittelte Preisspanne (Spread) ist positiv and weist eine c.p. positive Abhängigkeit von diesen beiden Faktoren auf. Eine mögliche Erklärung dafür bietet das Auftreten von Adverse Selektion.

Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets

This paper studies the impact of loss aversion on decisions regarding the allocation of wealth between risky and risk-free assets. We use a Value-at-Risk portfolio model with endogenous desired risk levels that are individually determined in an extended prospect theory framework. This framework allows for the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point as in the original prospect theory, but also for the influence of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. We show how the portfolio evaluation frequency impacts investor decisions and attitudes when facing financial losses and analyze the role of past gains and losses in the current wealth allocation. The perceived portfolio value exhibits distinct evolutions in two frequency segments delimitated by what we consider to be the optimal evaluation horizon of one year. Our empirical results suggest that previous research relying on VaR underestimates the aversion of real individual investors to financial losses.prospect theory, loss aversion, capital allocation, Value-at-Risk, portfolio evaluation

Emotions, Bayesian Inference, and Financial Decision Making

This paper presents a model in which rational and emotional investors are compelled to make decisions under uncertainty in order to ensure their survival. Using a neurofinancial setting, we show that, when different investor types fight for market capital, emotional traders tend not only to influence prices but also to have a much more developed adaptive mechanism than their rational peers, in spite of their apparently simplistic demand strategy and distorted revision of beliefs. Our results imply that prices in financial markets could be seen more accurately as a thermometer of the market mood and emotions rather than as simple informative signals as stated in traditional financial theory

Decision Rules and their Influence on Asset Prices

This paper develops a market microstructure model with asymmetric information in order to quantify the influence which practical decision rules have on asset process. The users of practical decision rules have incomplete information at their disposal and trade in a market with both fully informed and uninformed investors, as well as with a competitive market maker. The users of practical decision rules affect the periodical ask and bid prices in two ways: by means of the precision of their information and through their share in the totality of investors, respectively. The resulting bid-ask spread is positive and proportional to the c.p. variation of these two influencing factors and is attributable to the adverse selection costs