Area prioritization for optimal conservation planning

textThis dissertation develops an optimization framework for conservation planning and illustrates the framework using case studies from Alaska, Balcones Canyonlands National Wildlife Refuge (BCNWR) in central Texas, and Mexico. The common theme of the chapters is the use of optimization models to design conservation areas. Chapter 1 explains how the subsequent chapters are related to one another. Chapter 2 develops a framework for measuring how the cost of establishing conservation areas changes over time. When this method is applied to a data set on Mexican mammals, it is shown that twice as much land would have to be set aside to protect adequate mammal habitat today than would have been required in 1970 due to ongoing deforestation. Chapter 3 presents an optimization model for planning the establishment of conservation areas that incorporates forecasts of species' responses to global warming. The model is applied to analyze endangered birds and the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) on the Arctic coast of Alaska. Chapter 4 discusses the modeling of habitat for two endangered bird species, the Black{capped Vireo (Vireo atricapillus) and the Golden{cheekedWarbler (Dendroica chrysoparia), at BCNWR using a machine{learning algorithm (Maxent). These habitat models serve as part of the input for a one{stage optimization model for acquiring land to expand BCNWR. Chapter 5 uses graph theory to select corridors to establish connectivity between conservation areas in Mexico. The planning method presented in Chapter 5 is implemented in a free software package for corridor design, LQGraph.Biological Sciences, School o

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over four epidemic waves in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in low-resource communities can inform vaccination strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our objective was to estimate incidence over four epidemic waves in a slum in Rio de Janeiro, a proxy for economically deprived areas in the Global South. METHODS: Prospective cohort of children and household contacts screened for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR and serology (IgG). The incidence density of PCR positive infections estimated for each wave - the first wave, Zeta, Gamma and Delta - was compared to an index combining NPIs and vaccination coverage. FINDINGS: 718 families and 2501 individuals were enrolled, from May 2020 to November 2021. The incidence density of SARS-CoV-2 infection due to the first wave was 2, 3 times that of the other waves. The incidence among children was lower than that of older participants, except in later waves, when vaccination of the elderly reached 90%. Household agglomeration was significantly associated with incidence only during the first wave. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of infection greatly exceeded rates reported in similar cohorts. The observed reduction in incidence in the elderly during the Delta variant wave, in spite of the rollback of NPIs, can be attributed to increased vaccine coverage. The high incidence in young people reinforces the importance of vaccination in this age group, a policy that has yet to receive the full support of some sectors of society. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Foundation for the Advancement of Science of the State of Rio de Janeiro, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development

Mapping evolutionary process: a multi-taxa approach to conservation prioritization

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization

Cohort-profile: Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

PURPOSE: To better understand the household transmission of SARS-COV-2 in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022). PARTICIPANTS: This is an open prospective cohort study of children ≤12 years old and their household contacts. During home visits over 24 months, we collected data on sociodemographic characteristics, behavioural data, clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2, vaccination status, SARS-CoV-2 (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) RT-PCR and anti-S antibody tests. Among adults, the majority of participants were women (62%). FINDINGS TO DATE: We enrolled 845 families from May 2020 to May 2022. The median number of residents per household was four. The median household density, defined as the number of persons per room, was 0.95. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 occurrence was higher in households with a high number of persons per room. Children were not the principal source of SARS-CoV-2 infections in their households during the first wave of the pandemic. FUTURE PLANS: Future studies will investigate cellular and humoral immune responses to locally circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, which is relevant for the design of vaccines, antivirals and monoclonal antibodies. We will also engage in outreach to encourage vaccination as a means of limiting the transmission of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants and other emerging pathogens

Using Remote Sensing to Map the Risk of Human Monkeypox Virus in the Congo Basin

Although the incidence of human monkeypox has greatly increased in Central Africa over the last decade, resources for surveillance remain extremely limited. We conducted a geospatial analysis using existing data to better inform future surveillance efforts. Using active surveillance data collected between 2005 and 2007, we identified locations in Sankuru district, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where there have been one or more cases of human monkeypox. To assess what taxa constitute the main reservoirs of monkeypox, we tested whether human cases were associated with (i) rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.), which were implicated in monkeypox outbreaks elsewhere in the DRC in the 1980s, or (ii) terrestrial rodents in the genera Cricetomys and Graphiurus, which are believed to be monkeypox reservoirs in West Africa. Results suggest that the best predictors of human monkeypox cases are proximity to dense forests and associated habitat preferred by rope squirrels. The risk of contracting monkeypox is significantly greater near sites predicted to be habitable for squirrels (OR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.08–1.63). We recommend that semi-deciduous rainforests with oil-palm, the rope squirrel’s main food source, be prioritized for monitoring

The role of children in household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across four waves of the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close-contact settings such as households. We hypothesized that children would most often acquire SARS-CoV-2 from a symptomatic adult caregiver. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted from April 2020 to July 2022 in a low-resource, urban settlement in Brazil. We recruited families who brought their children to a public clinic. We collected nasopharyngeal and oral swabs from household members and tracked symptoms and vaccination. RESULTS: In total, 1,256 participants in 298 households were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 4073 RT-PCR tests were run with 893 SARS-CoV-2 positive results (21.9%). SARS-CoV-2 cases were defined as isolated cases (n=158) or well-defined transmission events (n=175). The risk of household transmission was lower if the index case was a child (OR: 0.3 [95% CI: 0.16-0.55], p<0.001) or was vaccinated (OR: 0.29 [95%CI: 0.1-0.85], p=0.024), and higher if the index was symptomatic (OR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.51-4.26], p<0.001). The secondary attack rate for child index cases to child contacts was 0.29, whereas the secondary attack rate from adult index cases to child contacts was 0.47 (p=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: In this community, children were significantly less infectious to their household contacts than adolescents or adults. Most children were infected by a symptomatic adult, usually their mother. There was a double benefit of vaccination as it protected the vaccinee from severe illness and prevented onward transmission to household contacts. Our findings may also be valid for similar populations throughout Latin America

Long COVID-19 syndrome associated with Omicron XBB.1.5 infection: a case report.

BACKGROUND: There is interest in lingering non-specific symptoms after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, referred to as Long coronavirus disease 2019 (Long COVID-19). It remains unknown whether the risk of Long COVID-19 is associated with pre-existing comorbidities or initial COVID-19 severity, including infections due to new Omicron lineages which predominated in 2023. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this case report was to characterize the clinical features of acute XBB.1.5 infection followed by Long COVID-19. METHODS: We followed a 73-year old female resident of Rio de Janeiro with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection and subsequent months. The SARS-CoV-2 lineage was determined by genome sequencing. FINDINGS: The participant denied comorbidities and had completed a two-dose vaccination schedule followed by two booster doses eight months prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary infection by viral lineage XBB.1.5. was clinically mild, but the participant subsequently reported persistent fatigue. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: This case demonstrates that Long COVID-19 may develop even after mild disease due to SARS-CoV-2 in fully vaccinated and boosted individuals without comorbidities. Continued monitoring of new SARS-CoV-2 lineages and associated clinical outcomes is warranted. Measures to prevent infection should continue to be implemented including development of new vaccines and antivirals effective against novel variants

Accuracy of saliva for SARS-CoV-2 detection in outpatients and their household contacts during the circulation of the Omicron variant of concern.

BACKGROUND: While nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs are considered the gold standard for severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) detection, several studies have shown that saliva is an alternative specimen for COVID-19 diagnosis and screening. METHODS: To analyze the utility of saliva for the diagnosis of COVID-19 during the circulation of the Omicron variant, participants were enrolled in an ongoing cohort designed to assess the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults and children. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and Cohen's kappa coefficient were calculated to assess diagnostic performance. RESULTS: Overall, 818 samples were collected from 365 outpatients from January 3 to February 2, 2022. The median age was 32.8 years (range: 3-94 years). RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 was confirmed in 97/121 symptomatic patients (80.2%) and 62/244 (25.4%) asymptomatic patients. Substantial agreement between saliva and combined nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal samples was observed with a Cohen's kappa value of 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67-0.81]. Sensitivity was 77% (95% CI: 70.9-82.2), specificity 95% (95% CI: 91.9-97), PPV 89.8% (95% CI: 83.1-94.4), NPV 87.9% (95% CI: 83.6-91.5), and accuracy 88.5% (95% CI: 85.0-91.4). Sensitivity was higher among samples collected from symptomatic children aged three years and older and adolescents [84% (95% CI: 70.5-92)] with a Cohen's kappa value of 0.63 (95% CI: 0.35-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Saliva is a reliable fluid for detecting SARS-CoV-2, especially in symptomatic children and adolescents during the circulation of the Omicron variant

Environmental variation predicts patterns of genomic variation in an African tropical forest frog

Central African rainforests are predicted to be disproportionately affected by future climate change. How species will cope with these changes is unclear, but rapid environmental changes will likely impose strong selection pressures. Here we examined environmental drivers of genomic variation in the central African puddle frog (Phrynobatrachus auritus) to identify areas of elevated environmentally-associated turnover. We also compared current and future climate models to pinpoint areas of high genomic vulnerability where allele frequencies will have to shift the most in order to keep pace with future climate change. Neither physical landscape barriers nor the effects of past Pleistocene refugia influenced genomic differentiation. Alternatively, geographic distance and seasonal aspects of precipitation are the most important drivers of SNP allele frequency variation. Patterns of genomic differentiation coincided with key ecological gradients across the forest-savanna ecotone, montane areas, and a coastal to interior rainfall gradient. Areas of greatest vulnerability were found in the lower Sanaga basin, the southeastern region of Cameroon, and southwest Gabon. In contrast with past conservation efforts that have focused on hotspots of species richness or endemism, our findings highlight the importance of maintaining environmentally heterogeneous landscapes to preserve genomic variation and ongoing evolutionary processes in the face of climate change

Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome after reinfection and vaccine breakthrough by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in Brazil.

We describe a case of prolonged COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in a fully vaccinated healthcare worker, 387 days after an infection caused by lineage B.1.1.33. Infections were confirmed by whole-genome sequencing and corroborated by the detection of neutralizing antibodies in convalescent serum samples. Considering the permanent exposure of this healthcare worker to SARS-CoV-2, the waning immunity after the first infection, the low efficacy of the inactivated vaccine at preventing COVID-19, the immune escape of the Gamma variant (VOC), and the burden of post-COVID syndrome, this individual would have benefited from an additional dose of a heterologous vaccine