Quantifying the land footprint of Germany and the EU using a hybrid accounting model

Footprint analysis reveals the appropriation of land resources from a consumer’s perspective. We here present a novel hybrid land-flow accounting method for the calculation of land footprints, employing a globally consistent top-down approach and combining physical with environmental economic accounting. Physical accounting tracks food products from ‘field to plate’ and non-food from ‘field to industrial use’ using the large harmonized FAO data to track biomass flows and related land use in physical volumes (tons of biomass). Environmental-economic accounting is used to further track non-food commodities in monetary values to final consumption. The hybrid methodology has been applied annually between 1995 and 2010 for 21 regional markets globally and including major economies separately (e.g. USA, China, India). Per capita extents and composition of cropland footprints vary widely across the world. Detailed results for Germany and the EU28 highlight the higher land demand of livestock-based diets compared to crop-based diets, the growing integration in international markets, and the growing importance of the non-food sector since 2000. Today the land footprint of each Germany citizen appropriates on average 2693 m2 cropland (about one half for livestock-based diets, one quarter for crop-based diets and one quarter for non-food products). Additional 1655 m2 of grassland per capita are used for the consumption of ruminant livestock products. Germany is a major and increasing trading partner with current net ‘cropland imports’ of 10.6 Mha. Overall, half of Germany’s 22 Mha cropland footprint relies on domestic cultivation and half on land resources abroad. Albeit large uncertainties in the calculation of grassland footprints, results point towards Germany being a significant net importer of grassland embedded in ruminant livestock products

Review of land flow accounting methods and recommendations for further development

Robust land footprint indicators can potentially extend the consumption-based resource use indicator of the German sustainability strategy, which focuses on abiotic resources including fossil fuels, metals, and construction and industrial minerals and decidedly excludes biotic resources. Various approaches exist for quantifying the land embodied in international trade flows and consumption, i.e. the land footprint. These can be classified into a) environmental-economic accounting approaches, applying input-output analysis and tracking supply chains in monetary values, b) physical accounting approaches, using an accounting framework based on data for production, trade and utilization of agricultural and forestry commodities and tracking supply chains in physical units, and c) hybrid accounting, combining elements from both environmental-economic and physical accounting. The results of recent studies vary widely, indicating a lack of robustness and thus hampering their application in policy making. This report provides an in-depth review of the current state of the art in measuring land footprints. We identify differences in available accounting methods and indicate their shortcomings, which are mainly attributable to the product and supply chain coverage and detail, and biases introduced by the use of monetary flows as a proxy for actual physical flows. We offer options and give clear recommendations for the further development of actual and virtual global biomass and land flow accounting methods, particularly highlighting the advantages of hybrid accounting approaches as a framework for the robust and transparent assessment of land footprints associated with global biomass flows

South African agriculture towards 2030/50

South Africa is a major producer and exporter of agricultural products. The diversified agricultural sector produces a wide variety of agricultural commodities based on both large-scale commercial farming and small-scale family farms. However, pockets of food insecurity persist with more than 10 % of households experiencing hunger. A growing and more affluent population will require a further increase in agricultural production. We present scenario model projections for the South African agricultural sector in accordance with the projections of the study “World agriculture towards 2030/2050” by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Until the 2050s, depending on scenario, South Africa’s current population of 55 million will grow by another 10 to 17 million people. At the same time average per capita income will increase by 150 to 200 % resulting in shifts in dietary patterns in favour of vegetables, fruits and livestock products. Between 2000 and 2050, meat consumption and food use of milk will increase by a factor of 2.2 to 2.5, while other commodities double or less than double. Increases in domestic production can account for most of the increasing food consumption. This is achieved by a combination of increases in cropping intensity, yields per hectare and smaller increases in areas equipped for irrigation. Cropping intensity increases from 50 % in 2000 to 60 % in 2050, i.e. the average fallow periods in crop rotation cycles will decrease. Yield, in terms of crop output per harvested area, will increase at an aggregate level by some 40-45 %. Changes in physical cropland depend on the scenario used. Mainly because of population numbers, for two scenarios the 14 million hectare arable land in 2000 decreases to between 13.6 and 13.1 million hectares. One scenario, which assumes higher population growth up to 73 million by 2050, result in some 300 thousand hectares cropland increase. Due to growing competition for already constrained water availability in many regions, total water withdrawals allocated to agriculture are expected to decrease over time. Therefore the sustained growth depends on careful use and integrated planning of water for irrigation. At an aggregate country level, by 2050, average food energy supply will increase by 16 % up to 3000 kcal per capita per day. The fraction of animal protein in total protein will increase from one fourth in 2000 to more than one third by 2050. Despite adequate and promising levels of future food supply, poverty can lead to parts of the population lacking access to food. At the same time, urban low income populations are prone to overweight and obesity. Food security plans should address strategies for the distribution of adequate and high-nutrient food, alongside environmental concerns focused on the conservation of the productive land in South Africa

The global cropland footprint of the non-food bioeconomy

A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The derived products include, for example, biofuels, textiles, detergents or cosmetics. Given the far-reaching global implications of an expanding non-food bioeconomy, an assessment of the bioeconomy’s resource use from a footprint perspective is urgently needed. We determine the global cropland footprint of non-food products with a hybrid land flow accounting model combining data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The globally interlinked model covers all cropland areas used for the production of crop- and animal-based non-food commodities for the years from 1995 to 2010. We analyse global patterns of raw material producers, processers and consumers of bio-based non-food products, with a particular focus on the European Union. Results illustrate that the EU is a major processer and the number one consumer region of non-food cropland, despite being only the fifth largest producing region. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy EU non-food consumption are located in other world regions, giving rise to a significant dependency on imported products and to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 29% in 2010, oilseed production, used to produce, for example, biofuels, detergents and polymers, represents the dominant share in the EU’s non-food cropland footprint. There is also a significant contribution of more traditional non-food biomass uses such as fibre crops (for textiles) and animal hides and skins (for leather products). Our study emphasises the importance of comprehensively assessing the implications of the non-food bioeconomy expansion as envisaged in various policy strategies, such as the Bioeconomy Strategy of the European Commission

Development of consumption-based land use indicators

With this UFOPLAN project on land use indicators, the German Federal Environment Agency aimed at further developing indicators from a consumption perspective in support of Germany’s sustainability strategy, covering both area-based and impact-oriented land footprint indicators.The project also aimed at calculating selected land footprint indicators for Germany and the EU. These indicators should provide an improved understanding of the global teleconnections of consumption and land use relevant for policy making towards achieving sustainable land use. This synthesis report presents the key results from this project. First, we present a structured overview of existing approaches for estimating land footprintsand describe their technical and structural characteristicsas well as their strengths and weaknesses. This leads to the specification of a hybrid methodology as the preferred calculation approach. In the second part, we present the developed innovative hybrid land footprint method, consisting of a global land flow accounting and trade model capturing commodity flows in physical units to track embodied land along global supply chains. For non-food commodities the supply chains were complemented by an environmental input-output model. This method was used to calculate the cropland, grassland and forestland footprint of Germany and the EU. Finally, an overview of existing indicator systems for representing the environmental impacts of land use was provided and their complementary usage to extend area-based land footprints was discussed. A few of these complementary indicators were also quantified, most notably the deforestation footprint. The synthesis report closes with an overview of the thematic areas that need to be addressed in future research

Review of land flow accounting methods and recommendations for further development

Robust land footprint indicators can potentially extend the consumption-based resource use indicator of the German sustainability strategy, which focuses on abiotic resources including fossil fuels, metals, and construction and industrial minerals and decidedly excludes biotic resources. Various approaches exist for quantifying the land embodied in international trade flows and consumption, i.e. the land footprint. These can be classified into a) environmental-economic accounting approaches, applying input-output analysis and tracking supply chains in monetary values, b) physical accounting approaches, using an accounting framework based on data for production, trade and utilization of agricultural and forestry commodities and tracking supply chains in physical units, and c) hybrid accounting, combining elements from both environmental-economic and physical accounting. The results of recent studies vary widely, indicating a lack of robustness and thus hampering their application in policy making. This report provides an in-depth review of the current state of the art in measuring land footprints. We identify differences in available accounting methods and indicate their shortcomings, which are mainly attributable to the product and supply chain coverage and detail, and biases introduced by the use of monetary flows as a proxy for actual physical flows. We offer options and give clear recommendations for the further development of actual and virtual global biomass and land flow ac-counting methods, particularly highlighting the advantages of hybrid accounting approaches as a framework for the robust and transparent assessment of land footprints associated with global bio-mass flows. German Title: Kritische Betrachtung von Methoden zur Berechnung von Flächenfußabdrucksindikatoren und Empfehlungen für deren Weiterentwicklun