Companion modelling for resilient and adaptive social agro-ecological systems in Asia

The Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach for renewable resource management (RRM) is a highly interactive collaborative modelling process used by researchers and local stakeholders to co-construct a shared representation of a given complex issue, and to use it to explore possible solutions of their choice through simulations. The scientific posture of the ComMod researcher creates an original relation between him, the models he develops, and the field actors and circumstances. By considering him/herself as part of the system under study, the researcher is one stakeholder among others in such action research process. ComMod main objectives are (i) to better understand a complex agro-ecosystem through the collaborative construction and joint use of different types of simulation models integrating various stakeholders' points of view, and (ii) to use these models within platforms for collective teaming to facilitate multiple stakeholders' coordination and negotiation processes leading to the definition of agreed-upon collective action plans to mitigate their common RRM problems. The ComMod approach relies very much on the use of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) combined in various ways with Role-Playing Games (RPG) to facilitate Integrated RRM (IRRM) by focusing on the management of interactions between ecological and social dynamics. A ComMod process alternates lab. modelling and field work phases in an iterative but evolving way, during which its hypotheses and methodology are systematically explicated and regularly questioned and adapted. Since the introduction of this approach and its tools in 2002, a dozen of ComMod case studies have been developed in the Southeast Asian region, most of them in Thailand. They looked at a broad range of topics ranging from highland catchment management, access to non timber forest products and cattle grazing in forest areas, crop substitution and market integration, land/water use and labour migrations, agro-biodiversity management in a rice seed system, and biodiversity conservation in coastal management. Following a brief history of the ComMod approach and a short presentation of its theoretical references, its objectives and fundamental principles are introduced. The main phases of a ComMod process, i.e. initialisation, conceptualization, model implementation & validation, scenario exploration, and monitoring & evaluation, are also presented. Finally, the future perspectives for the development of the ComMod approach and the current hot issues being debated are briefly discussed. (Résumé d'auteur

Negotiating the forest - farmland interface in northern Thailand with companion modelling

The debate about the expansion of agriculture in forest areas and the conservation or reforestation of head watersheds is still going on in montane Southeast Asia but in a rapidly changing context. Tremendous change occurred in the highland agrarian systems of northern Thailand during the past decades, leading to new farming practices, an increased diversity of stakeholders concerned by land management issues, and new relationships between villagers and national policies (decentralisation of resource management, shift from forest exploitation to conservation, etc.) and international conventions. In this context, the debate about the true participation of rural people in managing local renewable resources is taking central stage. New conceptual and practical tools to understand rural change in a more distributed, inclusive and interactive way have also emerged. System approaches relying on collaborative modelling are used to facilitate communication, knowledge sharing and the exchange of points of view among different types of stakeholders about a common resource management problem. The iterative and evolving Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach relies on multi-agent systems and makes use of the synergistic effects between role-playing games and computer agent-based models to co-construct simulation tools with stakeholders used in the joint exploration of possible future scenarios of their choice as part of negotiation processes leading to concrete action plans. In the past three years, such a ComMod process has been implemented in the head watershed of Nan province to understand the effects of recent change in forest management on the agrarian system and to mediate a land use conflict between foresters and Hmong herders. A preliminary diagnostic-analysis showed the influence of increased forest conservation efforts on the dynamics of deforestation in the local Hmong agrarian system. These land use dynamics were represented in a spatially explicit computer-assisted role-playing game. This tool was enriched and validated with the herders and foresters during a first set of gaming and simulation sessions aiming at the production of a shared representation of the problem at stake. The debate that followed identified innovative cattle management techniques to be tested and the simulation tool was modified to accommodate them. A second set of collaborative simulations tested the use of these innovations and led to an agreement on a joint experiment between herders and foresters seen as a first concrete step toward the co-management of the local forest -farmland interface. These results are discussed and the relevance of the approach, as well as the strengths and limitations of its main tools are assessed. Finally possible methodological improvements are suggested for collaborative modelling and simulation to better support the emergence of effective decentralized co-management of renewable resources in similar socio-ecological systems. (Résumé d'auteur

Training on multi-agent systems, social sciences, and integrated natural resource management : lessons from an Inter-University Project in Thailand

In this new century, there is an urgent need to integrate and organize knowledge into suitable frameworks to examine essential problems with the people involved in solving them. Recent advances in computer science, particularly distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems (MAS), are creating a strong interest in using this new knowledge and technologies for various applications to better deal with the increasing complexity of our fast-changing world, particularly for studying interactions between societies and their environment. By emphasizing the importance of interactions and points of view, the MAS way of thinking can facilitate high-level interdisciplinary training and collaborative research among scientists working in ecology and social sciences to examine complex problems in the field of integrated natural resource management (INRM). This paper describes how a recent project based on a series of short courses in the field of MAS, social sciences, and INRM at three different universities in Thailand tried to transfer European expertise and research results to an Asian audience of graduate and postgraduate students and young researchers interested in innovative and action-research-oriented interdisciplinary approaches. The course structure, organization, and contents are described and assessed. The course participants are characterized and their opinions are used to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of this very interdisciplinary training program. The first sustainable outputs and key preliminary lessons learned from this innovative collective learning experience are presented. In conclusion, the authors suggest ways to support the emergence of a regional network of "MAS for INRM" practitioners in Southeast Asia to build on the dynamics begun by this project and serve the need for such interdisciplinary training across Southeast Asia. (Résumé d'auteur

Land use change and driving factors in a fragile coastal rainfed lowland rice - sugar palm system of southern Thailand

For centuries, rainfed lowland rice production associated to sugar palm (Borassus flabellifer) hedges planted in the paddy field bunds (RLR-SP) has been an emblematic cultural agroforestry system in the indianized Southeast Asian countries. But recent changes in communication infrastructure, commercialization, urbanization, private and state interventions are driving the rapid transformations of these multi-functional systems. In the absence of in-depth analyses documenting the socio-ecological impacts of such change on household livelihoods and landscapes, a case study on the transformations, over the past four decades, of one of the most sophisticated coastal RLR-SP agroforestry system was implemented in Sathing Phra peninsula, Southeastern Thailand. Chronological series of satellite images and ground truthing were used to characterize and quantify land use change during 1983-2015, and 120 interviews with concerned stakeholders were carried out to understand agro-ecological, social, and economic effects of the driving factors of change on their livelihood systems. We show a process of diversification of farming (and off-farm) activities along their gradual market integration, since the opening of bridges and all-weather roads linking the area to neighboring cities in the 80s. We found that the traditional RLR-SP agroforestry system survived, almost unscathed, a first series of agrarian change. It was characterized by attempts at introducing irrigated rice, shrimp farming small perennial tree plantations in the paddies, or converting deep-water rice areas into small-scale integrated farming systems. The much improved communication infrastructures, and lack of irrigation water to switch from the low and unstable RLR yields to higher-value cash crops, increased the mobility of family farm laborers. They sized wage-earning opportunities, in the village or in fast developing urban centers, and escaped the drudgery of tapping sugar palms, in increased numbers. But a rising and profitable demand for sugar palm fruits from caning factories allowed the maintenance of the multiple functions of dense and healthy palm groves. A more recent “palm narang” government policy, supported by the establishment of new palm oil companies in the area, promoted small oil palm plantations in abandoned paddy fields to raise farm incomes. As the conversion to oil palm plots was the most important land use change observed during the last decade, it seems to be a more serious threat to the survival of the RLR-SP agroforestry system. In addition to these impacts of peri-urbanization combined with private and state interventions, an increase in the frequency of extreme rainy and windy events was also uncovered. This is underlining the need for the collaborative design of land-use scenarios and related collective and coordinated action plans to adapt this, diverse but increasingly vulnerable, iconic agro ecosystem to future challenging socio-ecological circumstances

Setting research priorities with farmers : complementarity of regional, farm and plot diagnoses to improve the competitiveness ans sustainability of Thai production systems

Since 1982, a Development-Oriented Research on Agrarian Systems (DORAS) approach has been sucessfully used at four complementary sites in southern, central and western Thailand to improve the competitiveness and sustainability of 50 to 80% of small-scale and resource-poor farming systems facing elimination. Setting research priorities in close collaboration with farmers was made through complementary diagnoses at regional, farm and plot levels. Based on the agrarian, agricultural production, cropping systems and itinerary of techniques concepts at each of these three complementary analytical scales, the theoretical framework and derived comparative, systemic and historical DORAS approach favors a relevant understanding of key interactions between bio-physical, technological factors or conditions and socio-economic circumstances. The finalised initial diagnosis emphasizes a comprehensive approach to fanner differentiation process and characterization of the functioning of the main types of farming systems. Farmer participation is again emphasized during design and testing of innovations to satisfy farmers objectives by using a rigorous articulation between on-farm experiments and agronomic surveys in farmers fields to design new types of trials. They aim at building different itineraries of techniques and cropping systems according to criteria in agreement with the functioning of target farming systems. Such farmer-researcher partnership guarantees the elaboration of well-adapted solutions and later accelerates their dissemination among organized producers. Evaluation of their adoption is carried out rapidly but systematically using a network of reference farms. Four complementary case studies from various Thai agroecosystems provide key illustrations, assessments of economic returns to investment in DORAS approach as well as future directions for theoretical and methodological research. (Résumé d'auteur

Changing rainfall pattern in Northeast Thailand and implications for cropping systems adaptation

In Northeast Thailand, about 80% of the 20 million inhabitants are engaged in rainfed agriculture. Climate vagaries combined with coarse-textured sandy and unevenly distributed saline soils explain low agriculture yields and the endemic relative poverty of the population. We conducted an in-depth analysis of change in the rainfall pattern using daily records (1953-2010) from 18 gauging stations scattered across Northeast Thailand. Based on an intimate knowledge of the local farming systems, particularly their strategies to deal with climate variability and their evolution during the past decades, we analyse and discuss how the cropping systems can adapt to the detected rainfall changes. We used the Mann–Kendall trend detection test, modified to account for serial correlation at each individual station, and the regional average Kendall's statistic designed for the detection of regional trends across the entire studied area. On-farm surveys carried out during the past two decades in both the upper and lower parts of Northeast Thailand provide a detailed understanding of the functioning of the agricultural production systems and their diversity. The analysis reveals very limited changes in rainfall frequency, intensity and extremes during the humid monsoon and therefore little change in the existing climatic constraints to agricultural production (early dry spells in the wet season and risk of floods at its peak in September). But we found a significant regional trend toward a wetter dry season that could offer new limited opportunities for agricultural production. The paper will discuss the implications of these findings and compare them with recently published research results. Differences in statistical significance between local and regional rainfall trends are also interpreted. If these trends extend, households would not face many difficulties because of their renowned adaptive capacity built over centuries of facing highly variable rainfall patterns, and due to the diversity of their resilient farming systems. (Texte intégral