A New Method of Forecast on the Turning Points of the Stock Price

松谷勉教授古稀記念特集本研究は平成13年度関西大学重点領域研究助成による「IT革新と電子商取引および電子的決済の発展動向ならびにその影響および潜在的諸問題の研究」の研究成果の一部です

A Positive Approach to Chaotic Economic Phenomena

A new type of chaotic analysis is reported here. This is a positive approach toward chaotic economic phenomena, not an abstract approach. I think public interest in such a positive approach will grow. There are three ways how curves with complex behaviors can be clarified. (1) the method to comprehend curve behaviors themselves. (2) The moving slope is a useful tool in cases where it is difficult to find the points of change (peaks and troughs) in the source data. The following becomes clear from the figure. [1] By repeatedly taking the moving slope, the numerical value becomes smaller. [2] As shown on the left-hand side of the figure for the repeated taking of the moving slope, the shape becomes simple (in this case, an elliptical shape). (3) The dynamism of chaotic economic phemonema can be generalized as in a Poincare plot (Fig. 9). It can be understood generally that the series is made stable by leading the orbit over the straight line of Xn = Xn + 1

[Material] The Curriculum of Irkutsk National University of Education

市場経済化の中で､さまざまな困難を抱えるロシアの大学における教員養成のカリキュラムを紹介する。経済学の教育が重視されていない状況が見て取れる

移動匂配法とスペクトル分析による株価変動の予測

時系列データを移動勾配法とスペクトル分析等を行うことによってその数理的特徴を明らかにし、予測の精度を高める試みを行った。結果、日経平均株価は一日当り10億株前後の出来高にならないと株価は上昇しない。アメリカ・ダウは3回の移動乞配をとることでその規則性が明らかとなる。日米英の平均株価をスペクトル分析すると、いずれの平均株価ともに1/fのゆらぎに近いこと、つまり生命体の各種の波動に近いことが明らかとなった

The Changes of "World Econometric Model" and our critique

The structures of the modern world economy has changed largely with two oil shocks, the rapidly internationalization in the monetary and capital market and cooperative policies among the advanced nations. The Economic Planning Agency\u27s "World Econometric Models" have followed these changes. The first model was built in 1982, the second in 1984, the third in 1987, and the fourth in 1991. These four models consist of open macro model of the traditional models (IS-LM-BP analasis). And the theory of Monetarism has been added in them. The main findings of this paper are that "World Econometric Model" coudn\u27t explain perfectly the real economic movement. The most important things to be analyzed is the investment function. It is to show the real economic behavior. One final caution. Consequently "World econometric Models" never explain and forecast the drastic forming and collapsing processes of the "bubble economy" in Ja pan

Factors of a Company Leading to its Selection by Job-seeking Students

民間企業の学生を対象とした求人総数はバブル期をはるかに上回り,過去最大の93.3万人に及ぶ.その求人倍率は2007年の1.89倍から2.14倍へと16年振りに倍率2倍を超えた.企業と学生の立場は逆転し,学生が企業を選ぶ側となった昨今,企業を選ぶ際に重要視する要因とは何なのか.本研究では就職活動中の学生を対象とした意識調査データを用いて,相関分析,重回帰分析の両分析を同時に行える独自のソフト,アプリケーション・ソフト「Excel VBA」を活用・開発し,それを用いて分析結果の検証を行った.企業を選ぶ際に学生が重要視する要因を分析によって明確にした.Today, the total number of job offers made to students by private companies far exceeds that in the bubble years, reaching the largest ever number of 933,000. The ratio of job offers to seekers has increased from 1.89 (in 2007) to 2.14, surpassing 2.00 for the first time in the last 16 years. Now that the relationship between companies and students has inverted, with the latter in the position of selecting the former, what factors of a company do students most emphasize before selecting it? The present study was intended to identify such factors; more specifically, data from an attitude survey conducted among job-seeking students were analyzed using an originally developed Excel VBA application, capable of simultaneously performing correlation and multiple regression analyses, and the results of analysis were evaluated

A Positive Chaos Analysis for Average Stock Price and Economic Data

ランダムに見える株価や経済データの変動に対する予測の可能性は，長く研究者の関心事であったが，それを分析する有効な手段は存在しなかった．ランダムな変動においては要素間の複雑な相互作用が関係しており，従来の回帰分析という近似では妥当し難い．近年， カオス研究の重要性については，自然科学や社会科学という枠組みを超えて議論がなされている．この新しい見解は，株価や経済データの分析においても新たな予測の可能性につながるものであるといえよう．本研究では，数値データそのものを定性的に分析する実証的カオス分析という新しい手法を用いて，株価や経済データの持つ独特の性質を抽出し，それが示す規則性から予測の可能性について検証した．We would like to determine the behavior and rules underlying the fluctuations of random data, in order to forecast them more accurately. Such fluctuations may be measured through positive chaos analysis of the circulatory changes in business cycles from a new angle of view. This approach means a combination of the social sciences and natural science

Usefulness of infection team in CRS

Background : Surgical site infection (SSI) is an adverse event that places a major burden on patients and staff. In this study, we examined the occurrence of SSI and the characteristics of patients referred to the SSI team after colorectal surgery. Methods : In total, 955 patients underwent colorectal surgery at our hospital from 2014 to 2019. Of these 955 patients, 516 received therapeutic support by the SSI team from 2017 to 2019. All patients were evaluated using an SSI surveillance sheet, and we checked for reports of SSI once a month. Each attending physician performed SSI prophylaxis (use of new instruments before wound irrigation and closure). Results : SSI occurred in 80 (8.4%) patients. The incidence of SSI and the incidence of surface SSI were higher in the patients who did not receive intervention by the SSI team than in the patients who did. Organ / space SSI occurred in 18 patients. Among patients with surface SSI, Enterococcus was the most commonly detected bacteria. Among the 18 patients with organ / space SSI, 5 developed anastomotic leakage and 4 developed intra-abdominal abscesses. Conclusions : An SSI team for prevention and treatment of infection may contribute to reduction of SSI

New ports placement in laparoscopic central lymph nodes dissection with left colic artery preservation for sigmoid colon and rectal cancer

Background : Lymph nodes (LNs) dissection around inferior mesenteric artery (IMA) with left colic artery (LCA) preservation is difficult due to the anatomical feature of IMA. The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of new ports placement inserted from a suprapubic region in laparoscopic LNs dissection around IMA with LCA preservation for sigmoid colon and ractal cancer. Methods : Twenty-two patients who underwent laparoscopic colectomy for sigmoid colon and recal cancer were included. The new ports placement group (n=15, new group) was compared with the basic ports placement group (n=7, basic group). Average number of harvested LNs, total operation time, central LNs dissection time, intraoperative blood loss were compared. Results : There was no significant difference in the average number of harvested LNs. The mean of intraoperative blood loss of new group was significantly lower than that of the basic group (40.0±39.8 ml vs 95.7±81.0 ml, p<0.05). In addition, the mean of operation time of the new group was significantly shorter than that of the basic group (250.0±55.7 min vs 353.4±80.2 min, p<0.05). Conclusions : The new ports placement is useful in laparoscopic LNs dissection around IMA with LCA preservation for sigmoid colon and rectal cancer