Analysis of Climate Change s Effect on Flood Risk. Case Study of Reinosa in the Ebro River Basin

[EN] Floods are one of the natural hazards that could be most affected by climate change, causing great economic damage and casualties in the world. On December 2019 in Reinosa (Cantabria, Spain), took place one of the worst floods in memory. Implementation of DIRECTIVE 2007/60/EC for the assessment and management of flood risks in Spain enabled the detection of this river basin with a potential significant flood risk via a preliminary flood risk assessment, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were developed. The main objective of this paper is to present a methodology to estimate climate change¿s effects on flood hazard and flood risk, with Reinosa as the case study. This river basin is affected by the snow phenomenon, even more sensitive to climate change. Using different climate models, regarding a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), with daily temperature and precipitation data from years 2007¿2070, and comparing results in relative terms, flow rate and flood risk variation due to climate change are estimated. In the specific case of Reinosa, the MRI-CGCM3 model shows that climate change will cause a significant increase of potential affected inhabitants and economic damage due to flood risk. This evaluation enables us to define mitigation actions in terms of cost¿benefit analysis and prioritize the ones that should be included in flood risk management plans.Lastrada Marcén, JE.; Cobos Campos, G.; Torrijo, F. (2020). Analysis of Climate Change s Effect on Flood Risk. Case Study of Reinosa in the Ebro River Basin. Water. 12(4):1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041114S114124Flood Risk Management: A Strategic Approach https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000220870Doroszkiewicz, J., Romanowicz, R., & Kiczko, A. (2018). The Influence of Flow Projection Errors on Flood Hazard Estimates in Future Climate Conditions. Water, 11(1), 49. doi:10.3390/w11010049Zhu, T., Lund, J. R., Jenkins, M. W., Marques, G. F., & Ritzema, R. S. (2007). Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection. Water Resources Research, 43(6). doi:10.1029/2004wr003516Nyaupane, N., Thakur, B., Kalra, A., & Ahmad, S. (2018). Evaluating Future Flood Scenarios Using CMIP5 Climate Projections. Water, 10(12), 1866. doi:10.3390/w10121866Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change https://archive.ipcc.ch/European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) https://www.efas.eu/en/news/summary-efas-notifications-2019Garijo, C., & Mediero, L. (2018). Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain. Acta Geophysica, 66(4), 769-790. doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0143-0Garijo, C., Mediero, L., & Garrote, L. (2018). Utilidad de las proyecciones climáticas generadas por AEMET para estudios de impacto del cambio climático sobre avenidas a escala nacional. Ingeniería del agua, 22(3), 153. doi:10.4995/ia.2018.9312ASTER. Modelo Hidrológico De Simulación Y Previsión Aplicado A Cuencas Donde El Fenómeno Nival Es Relevante http://www.spesa.es/paginas/basededatos/ASTER_Manual_Usuario.pdfPolicy-Relevant Assessment of Socio-Economic Effects of Droughts and Floods, To Establish a Damage-Water Depth Relationship http://www.feem-project.net/preempt/Cobos, G., Francés, M., & Arenillas, M. (2010). Le programme ERHIN. Modélisation nivo-hydrologique pour la gestion de l’eau du bassin de l’Ebre. La Houille Blanche, (3), 58-64. doi:10.1051/lhb/2010035Anderson, E. A. (1968). Development and testing of snow pack energy balance equations. Water Resources Research, 4(1), 19-37. doi:10.1029/wr004i001p0001

A Decrease in the Regulatory Effect of Snow-Related Phenomena in Spanish Mountain Areas Due to Climate Change

[EN] Climate change undoubtedly will affect snow events as temperature and precipitation are expected to change in the future. Spanish mountains are especially affected by that situation, since snow storage is there focussed on very specific periods of the hydrological year and plays a very important role in the management of water resources. In this study, an analysis of the behaviour of the complex snow-related phenomena in the four main mountain regions of Spain in the next 50 years is conducted. The ASTER hydrological model is applied using temperature and precipitation data as basic input, estimated under a climate change scenario. Results show different changes in the maximum and average expected flows, depending on the very different magnitude and sign of changes in precipitation. An increase of flooding episodes may occur as a result of a complex relation between changes in precipitation and an increase in maximum snowmelt intensities that range from 2.1% in the Pyrenees to 7.4% in the Cantabrian Mountains. However, common patterns are shown in a shorter duration of the snow bulk reserves, expected to occur 45 days earlier for the Cantabrian Mountains, and about 30 days for the rest of the studied mountain regions. Changes observed also lead to a concerning decrease in the regulatory effect of the snow-related phenomena in the Spanish rivers, with a decrease in the average snow accumulation that ranges from about 28% for the Pyrenees and Sierra Nevada to 42% for the Central System and the Cantabrian Mountains. A decrease in average flow is expected, fluctuating from 2.4% in the Pyrenees to 7.3% in Cantabrian Mountains, only increasing in the Central System by 4.0%, making all necessary to develop new adaptation measures to climate change.The authors acknowledge F. J. Sanchez, M. Aparicio and F. Pastor (Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge), Tragsatec and ASTER model developer J. A. Collado (SPESA Ingenieria). The authors fully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Department of Geological and Geotechnical Engineering of the UPV.Lastrada, E.; Garzón-Roca, J.; Cobos Campos, G.; Torrijo, F. (2021). A Decrease in the Regulatory Effect of Snow-Related Phenomena in Spanish Mountain Areas Due to Climate Change. Water. 13(11):1-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111550S120131

Preliminary Analysis of Earthen Architecture Response to Floods: The Case of Alzira (Spain)

[EN] Alzira, the capital of the Ribera del Júcar, has historically played a prominent role within the Comunitat Valenciana. The first settlement of the city dates back to the Moorish domination, and after the Reconquista, together with Xativa, Alcoi and Elx, it became one of the main cities of the ancient Reino de Valencia. Its architectural heritage is a witness of this remarkable past, including the glorious example of the Moorish wall, built almost entirely using the technique of rammed earth. Throughout history, the Moorish wall and the entire architectural heritage of Alzira have suffered extensive damage due to multiple factors, including neglect, wars and numerous floods. Throughout history, floods have had a significant impact on the architectural and cultural heritage of the city, as chronicled at the time, given that until the 1960s, the historic centre was surrounded by the two branches of the river Júcar. This study aims to analyse the response of earthen architecture to flooding, assessing its resilience and vulnerability through the analysis of the case of the city of Alzira and, in particular, of its historic centre. The research will therefore investigate the adaptation of earthen architecture and traditional techniques to floods. The recognition of these good practices used in the past and the establishment of a level of risk will be crucial to developing measures for the prevention and mitigation of the effects of floods, such as structural reinforcements and protective devices.This work is part of the research project Earthen architecture in the Iberian Peninsula: study of natural, social and anthropic risks and strategies to improve resilience Risk-Terra (ref. RTI2018-095302-B-I00; main researchers: Camilla Mileto and Fernando Vegas), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and University.Trizio, F.; Mileto, C.; Torrijo, F.; Lidón De-Miguel, M. (2020). Preliminary Analysis of Earthen Architecture Response to Floods: The Case of Alzira (Spain). International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences (Online). 44:713-717. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIV-M-1-2020-713-2020S7137174

Seasonal variability of snow density in the Spanish Pyrenees

[EN] Spanish latitudes and meteorological conditions cause the snow phenomena to mainly take place in mountainous areas, playing a key role in water resource management, with the Pyrenees as one of the most important and best monitored areas. Based on the most significant dataset of snow density (SDEN) in the Spanish Pyrenees for on-site manual samples and automatic measurements, in this study, single and multiple linear regression models are evaluated that relate SDEN with intra-annual time dependence and other drivers such as the seasonal accumulated precipitation, 7-day average temperatures, snow depth (SD) and elevation. The seasonal accumulated precipitation presented a more dominant influence than daily precipitation, usually being the second most dominant SDEN driver, followed by temperature. Average temperatures showed the best fitting to SDEN. The results showed similar densification rates ranging widely from 0.7 x 10(3) kg/L/day to 2 x 10(3) kg/L/day without showing a spatial pattern. The densification rate for the set of manual samples was set to 1.2 kg/L/day, very similar to the set of automatic measurements (1.3 kg/L/day). The results increase knowledge on SDEN in the Pyrenees. The SDEN regression models that are given in this work may allow us, in the future, to estimate SDEN, and consequently Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), using an economical and extensive SD and meteorological network, although the high spatial variability that has been found must be regarded. Estimating a relationship between SDEN and several climate drivers enables us to take into account the impact of climate variability on SDEN.The authors acknowledge F. Pastor and F. J. Sanchez (Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge); M. L. Moreno (EbroWater Authority); the Ebro Water Authority and field engineers A. Pedrero-Munoz and M. Motes (SPESA Ingenieria). The authors fully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Department of Geological and Geotechnical Engineering of the UPV.Lastrada, E.; Cobos Campos, G.; Garzón-Roca, J.; Torrijo, F. (2021). Seasonal variability of snow density in the Spanish Pyrenees. Water. 13(11):1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111598117131

Early Investigation of a Landslide Sliding Surface by HVSR and VES Geophysical Techniques Combined, a Case Study in Guarumales (Ecuador)

[EN] The access road to the powerhouse's hydraulic system's facilities in Guarumales (Azuay, Ecuador) presents a medium-sized landslide. Geophysical tests were conducted in the initial research stage, combining electrical and seismic methods. A vertical electrical sounding (VES) and horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) survey campaign have been taken as a reference for the analysis of the landslide area. The distribution of these test points has been at three different levels along the landslide where the access road crosses it, trying to cover the area¿s most extensive possible length and width. In the area, we find the geology dominated by the presence of schists, altered to different degrees and presenting blocks of material with a lower degree of alteration within colluvium formed by a clayey matrix and coarse material of the exact nature. There is also observed runoff water and groundwater in the area. The results obtained through SEV tests have allowed for defining the separation zone of the mobilized or sliding materials compared to the fixed or immobile ones (potentially, the sliding surface was marked). Using the HVSR technique, the natural vibration frequencies of the ground associated with the sliding mass (separation of seismic impedances between a two-layer model: mobile and fixed) have been determined. Previous authors proposed an empirical relationship establishing the exponential relationship, already proposed by previous authors, between sediment thickness and natural frequencies. It has been possible to determine the depth of the position of the loosely compacted sediment zone (and probably moving or mobilized) compared to that of compact materials (immobile) and thereby define the potential rupture surface.Alonso-Pandavenes, O.; Torrijo, F.; Garzón-Roca, J.; Gracia, A. (2023). Early Investigation of a Landslide Sliding Surface by HVSR and VES Geophysical Techniques Combined, a Case Study in Guarumales (Ecuador). Applied Sciences. 13(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/app1302102313

Geomechanical characterization and analysis of the Upper Cretaceous flysch materials found in the Basque Arc Alpine region

[EN] Flysch materials are one of the most challenging geological materials and often give rise to slope instability problems. Due to its natural heterogeneity, geomechanical characterization of flysch materials is somewhat difficult. The Spanish Basque Arc Alpine region is a very well-known location for flysch materials. In this paper, an area of approximately 100 km(2) in the region is intensively studied and their flysch materials geomechanically characterized. A total of 33 locations are investigated by a broad geological-geotechnical investigation, involving petrographic analyses, geomechanical stations, boreholes, and mechanical laboratory tests. In addition, a slope inventory was carried out to assess the situation in the existing slopes in the area. Characterization of materials is carried out in terms of RQD, RMR, and GSI as well as using the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. Different correlations are assessed, establishing their appropriateness for estimating the mechanical parameters of a flysch material rock mass.Financial support was provided by the Department of Geological and Geotechnical Engineering of the UPV.Garzón-Roca, J.; Torrijo, F.; Company Rodríguez, J.; Cobos Campos, G. (2021). Geomechanical characterization and analysis of the Upper Cretaceous flysch materials found in the Basque Arc Alpine region. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment. 80(10):7831-7846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02383-378317846801

Flood Risk in a Heritage City: Alzira as a Case Study

[EN] Floods are natural hazards which have damaged cities and their architectural heritage over the centuries. The heritage town of Alzira (Valencia, Spain) is a major case study for the assessment of flood risk in architectural heritage. Alzira was founded by the Al-Andalus Moors on a river island within a bend of the river Jucar, which has overflowed more than 80 times during its history. The main aim of this work is to analyse the vulnerability to floods of the town's architectural heritage, especially that of earthen architecture, a constructive tradition of which several examples can be found in the town. The proposed methodology attempts to calculate the vulnerability of the earthen architecture through the evaluation and weighting of extrinsic and intrinsic parameters. This makes it possible to identify the constructive characteristics and material weathering which worsen the behaviour of structures during floods. Maximum vulnerability values have been obtained for poorly conserved constructions without cladding. Results highlight the importance of ascertaining suitable strategies for the prevention and mitigation of risk as future lines of research. The vulnerability assessment methodology presented in this study could be applied to other case studies in other sites with architectural heritage under threat from floods.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, grant number RTI2018-095302-B-I00.Trizio, F.; Torrijo, F.; Mileto, C.; Vegas López-Manzanares, F. (2021). Flood Risk in a Heritage City: Alzira as a Case Study. Water. 13(9):1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091138S11713

Estimation of cerchar abrasivity index of andesitic rocks in Ecuador from chemical compounds and petrographical properties using regression analyses

[EN] An important issue in any rock engineering project is the adequate prediction of tool consumption. Excavation tools are subjected to wear, and repair/replacement of those tools is usually an important expense on any excavation budget. The key factor that affects wear of excavation tools is rock abrasivity. In mining and civil engineering, rock abrasivity is typically measured by the Cerchar abrasivity index (CAI), which is obtained in laboratory from a Cerchar abrasivity test. This paper studied the relation between CAI and the chemical compounds and petrographical properties of andesitic rocks from the central area of Ecuador. A series of regression analyses are performed to study the influence of the different chemical compounds and petrographical properties on the CAI value. Results show that it is possible to make a good estimation of CAI from the plagioclase grain size and/or the content of SiO2, FeO, MgO, CaO, Na2O and K2O compounds.Torrijo, F.; Garzón-Roca, J.; Company Rodríguez, J.; Cobos Campos, G. (2018). Estimation of cerchar abrasivity index of andesitic rocks in Ecuador from chemical compounds and petrographical properties using regression analyses. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment. 1-14. doi:10.1007/s10064-018-1306-6S114Al-Ameen SL, Waller MD (1994) The influence of rock strength and abrasive mineral content on the CERCHAR abrasive index. Eng Geol 36:293–301Alber M (2007) Stress dependency of the Cerchar Abrasivity index (CAI) and its effects on wear of selected rock cutting tools. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 9:351–539Alber M (2008) Stress dependency of the Cerchar abrasivity index (CAI) and its effects on wear of selected rock cutting tools. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 23:351–359Alber M, Yaralı O, Dahl F, Bruland A, Käsling H, Michalakopoulos TN, Cardu M, Hagan P, Aydın H, Özarslan A (2014) ISRM suggested method for determining the abrasivity of rock by the CERCHAR abrasivity test. Rock Mech Rock Eng 47:261–266ASTM D3967 (2001) Standard test method for splitting tensile strength of intact rock core specimens. American Society for Testing and Materials, West ConshohockenASTM D7012 (2010) Standard test method for compressive strength and elastic module of intact rock core specimens under varying states of stress and temperatures. American Society for Testing and Materials, West ConshohockenASTM D7625 (2010) Standard test method for laboratory determination of abrasiveness of rock using the CERCHAR method. American Society for Testing and Materials, West ConshohockenAtkinson T, Cassapi VB, Singh RN (1986a) Assessment of abrasive wear resistance potential in rock excavation machinery. Int J Min Geol Eng 3:151–163Atkinson T, Denby B, Cassapi VB (1986b) Problems associated with rock material properties in surface mining equipment selection. Trans Inst Min Metall Section A Miner Ind 95:A80–A86Boland MP, Pilatasig LF, Ibandango CE, McCourt WJ, Aspden JA, Hughes RA, Beate B (2000) Geology of the western cordillera between 0°-1°N, mining development and environmental control project, map and geological information program, report no. 10, (Proyecto de Desarrollo Minero y control Ambiental, Programa de Informacion cartografica y Geológica, Informe no. 10), CODIGEM-BGS, Quito, Ecuador, p 72 (In Spanish)CERCHAR (1986) The CERCHAR abrasiveness index. Centre d’Etudes et des Recherches des Charbonages de France, Verneuil, FranceDeliormanlı A (2011) Cerchar abrasivitiy index (CAI) and its relation to strength and abrasion test methods for marble stones. Constr Build Mat 30:16–21Deliormanlı AH (2012) Cerchar abrasivity index (CAI) and its relation to strength and abrasion test methods for marble stones. Constr Build Mater 30:16–21Er S, Tugrul A (2016a) Correlation of physico-mechanical properties of granitic rocks with Cerchar Abrasivity index in Turkey. Measurement 91:114–123Er S, Tugrul A (2016b) Estimation of Cerchar abrasivity index of granitic rocks in Turkey by geological properties using regression analysis. B Eng Geol Environ 75(3):1325–1339Fowell RJ, Abu Bakar MZ (2007) A review of the Cerchar and LCPC rock abrasivity measurement methods. Proceeding of the 11th congress of the International Society for Rock Mechanics 155–160Hamzaban MT, Memarian H, Rostami J (2014a) Continuous monitoring of pin tip wear and penetration into rock surface using a new Cerchar abrasivity testing device. Rock Mech Rock Eng 47(2):689–701Hamzaban MT, Memarian H, Rostami J, Ghasemi-Monfared H (2014b) Study of rock-pin interaction in Cerchar abrasivity test. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 72:100–108ISRM (2007) The complete ISRM suggested methods for rock characterization, testing and monitoring: 1974–2006. International Society for Rock Mechanics, LisbonKahraman S, Alber M, Fener M, Gunaydin O (2010) The usability of Cerchar abrasivity index for the prediction of UCS and E of Misis fault breccia: regression and artificial neural networks analysis. Expert Syst Appl 37:8750–8756Käsling H, Thuro K (2010) Determining abrasivity of rock in the laboratory. European Rock Mechanics Symposium. EUROCK 2010, Laussane, SwitzerlandLassnig K, Latal C, Klima K (2008) Impact of grain size on the Cerchar abrasiveness test. Ernst and Sohn Verlag für Architektur und technische Wissenschaften GmbH and Co. KG. Berlin Geomechanik und Tunnelbau 1, Heft 1Majeed Y, Abu Bakar MZ (2016) Statistical evaluation of CERCHAR Abrasivity index (CAI) measurement methods and dependence on petrographic and mechanical properties of selected rocks of Pakistan. Bull Eng Geol Environ 75:1341–1360Michalakopoulos TN, Anagnostou VG, Bassanou ME, Panagiotou GN (2005) The influence of steel styli hardness on the Cerchar abrasiveness index value. Inter J Rock Mech Mining Sci Geomechan Abstracts 43:321–327Moradizadeh M, Ghafoori M, Lashkaripour GR, Tarigh Azali S (2013) Utilizing geological properties for predicting cerchar abrasiveness index (CAI) in sandstones. Int J Emerg Technol Advan Eng 3(9):99–109NF P 94–430-1 (2000) Determination du pouvoir abrasif d’une roche— Partie 1: Essai de rayure avec une pointe. Association française de Normalisation (AFNOR), ParisPlinninger R, Kasling H, Thuro K, Spaun G (2003) Testing conditions and geomechanical properties in influencing the CERCHAR abrasiveness index (CAI) value. J Rock Mech Mining Sci 40:159–263Rostami J, Ghasemi A, Gharahbagh AE, Dogruoz C, Dahl F (2014) Study of dominant factors affecting cerchar abrasivity index. Mech Rock Eng 47:1905–1919StatPoint Technologies, Inc (2009) STATGRAPHICS centurion XVI user manual. StatPoint Technologies Inc, The PlainsSuana M, Peters T (1982) The CERCHAR abrasivity index and its relation to rock mineralogy and petrography. Rock Mech Rock Eng 15:1–7Thuro K (1997) Prediction of drillability in hard rock tunneling by drilling and blasting. In: Golser, Hinkel and Schubert (Eds.) Tunnels for people, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 103–108Vallejo C (2007) Evolution of the western cordillera in the Andes of Ecuador (late cretaceous–Paleogene). Dissertation, Institute of Geology, ETH ZürichVallejo C, Winkler W, Spikings RA, Luzieux L, Heller F, Bussy F (2009) Mode and timing of terrane accretion in the forearc of the Andes in Ecuador. In: Kay SM, Ramos VA, Dickinson WR (Eds.) Backbone of the Americas: shallow subduction, plateau uplift, and ridge and terrane collision. Geol Soc Am Mem 204:197–216Vera RH (2016) Geology of Ecuador. Iberia, QuitoVezzoli L, Apuani T, Corazzato C, Uttini A (2017) Geological and geotechnical characterization of the debris avalanche and pyroclastic deposits of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador). A contribute to instability-related hazard studies. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 332:51–70West G (1989) Rock abrasiveness testing for tunneling. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 26:151–160Yarali O, Yasar E, Bacak G, Ranjith PG (2008) A study of rock abrasivity and tool wear in coal measures rocks. Int J Coal Geol 74:53–6

Nódulos y Concreciones

Torrijo, F.; Mandado Collado, JMA. (2010). Nódulos y Concreciones. Investigación y Ciencia: Edición Española de Scientific American. (409):76-83. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/65237S768340

Designing Soil-Nailed Walls Using the Amherst Wall Considering Problematic Issues during Execution and Service Life

[EN] Soil nailing is a technique commonly used as a temporary or permanent earth-retention system in soft soils. Habitually, the design of a soil nailing focuses on its performance at failure and computing a safety factor, thus neglecting ground deformations. In this study, an analysis and a comparison of the convenience of the use of the limit-equilibrium method and the FEM for designing a soil nailing were conducted. The assessment considered both the suitability of an easy and fast design process and the necessity to take into account such issues as ground deformations to avoid problematic consequences that can arise during the execution phase and service life. For performing the analyses, a numerical study of the Amherst wall, a full-scale soil-nailed wall built to be an experimental test in the last years of the twentieth century, was carried out. A two-step process for designing soil-nailed walls is proposed. The first step involves the use of limit-equilibrium methods to define the main parameters. The second step deals with the development of a finite-element model to consider ground deformations and determine nail forces. An approach based on the use the Mohr-Coulomb model for simulating materials more similar to granular soils and the hardening soil model for simulating materials more similar to cohesive soils is also presented as an answer for the numerical modeling of soil-nailed walls in ground situations where the soil is neither purely cohesive nor purely granular.Garzón-Roca, J.; Capa-Guachon, VE.; Torrijo, F.; Company Rodríguez, J. (2019). Designing Soil-Nailed Walls Using the Amherst Wall Considering Problematic Issues during Execution and Service Life. International Journal of Geomechanics. 19(7):1-14. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0001453S11419