Evaluation of scoring systems in terms of early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis and mortality in patients over 65 years of age.

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the power of disease severity scores to predict the development of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) and mortality in the early period over 65 years old diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Materials and Methods: We calculated RANSON (on admission) and Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) in addition to Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score on admission to the emergency department. Results: One hundred and sixty patients (46.9% over 80 years of age) were included in the study. We observed statistically higher length of hospitalization, longer duration of stay in the intensive care unit, SAP and higher mortality in patients over 80 years of age. When we examined the ROC curve, we determined that the AUC values of the BISAP score were highest in both SAP and mortality estimation (AUC: 0.911, 95% CI 0.861-0.962; AUC: 0.918, 95% CI 0.864-0.9722, respectively). Binary logistic analysis indicated a 4.7-fold increased risk for SAP and a 12.3-fold increased mortality for each unit increase in BISAP score value. Conclusion: BISAP may be a good predictor for SAP and mortality estimation on admission to the emergency department in patients over 65 years of age with acute pancreatitis