The impact of oil prices on products groups inflation: is the effect asymmetric?

In this paper we assess the oil price pass-through into both, the global inflation in Spain and the inflation derived from the non-deterministic prices of the standard European classification of product groups, during the period 2002-2018. To this end we fit a transfer function to inflation in each group, extended to allow for an asymmetry in the transmission of positive/negative oil cost shocks, that is, a “rockets and feathers effect”. Our results show that most often there is a significant asymmetry, which can be explained by the degree of competition in each market

Oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain at national and regional level

Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To this end, we fit econometric models to measure the effect of oil price shocks on inflation and to predict them under different scenarios. Our results show that almost half of the volatility of changes in total inflation is explained by changes in oil price. As could be expected, the energy component of inflation drives this effect. We also find that, under the most likely scenarios, 1-year ahead total inflation will be moderate, with relevant differences across regions.This research was supported by Instituto Complutense de Analisis Economico (ICAE), as well as Universidad Complutense de Madrid/Banco de Santander through grants PR26/16-20270, 0412155 and a CT17/17-CT18/17 FPI scholarship. César Castro acknowledges financial support from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (Project DGCT, No. PGC2018-093542-B-I00). Andrés Barge-Gil acknowledges financial support from Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-82445-R)

Oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain at national and regional level

Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which have revived the interest on its effect on inflation rates. In this paper we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain. We adjust econometric models to predict the effect of oil price shocks on inflation both at national and regional level and under different scenarios. Our results show that almost half of inflation rates are explained by variations in oil price, that one-year ahead inflation will likely be moderate and that important differences across regions exist

Evaluación Continua, Trabajo en Equipo y Aprendizaje Presencial u Online (ECTEAPO)

Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía CuantitativaFac. de Ciencias Económicas y EmpresarialesFALSEsubmitte

Desigualdades socioeconómicas en la utilización de la mamografía preventiva

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en determinar la existencia de desigualdades socioeconómicas en la realización de la mamografía preventiva. Para ello se han elaborado modelos econométricos de elección discreta, Logit y Probit, basados en los determinantes de uso de los servicios de salud propuestos por Andersen (1968, 1995) en el “Modelo de comportamiento en la utilización de los servicios sanitarios”. Los resultados muestran la existencia de inequidades a favor de las mujeres con un estatus social y económico más elevado

Three essays about the oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, leída el 30-05-2022Las bruscas fluctuaciones del precio del petróleo en los últimos años han vuelto a despertar el interés en describir su efecto en la inflación. En este trabajo analizamos la relación entre el precio del petróleo y la inflación en España, a nivel nacional, regional y haciendo la distinción entre la inflación energética y la no energética. También analizamos la relación entre el precio del petróleo en la inflación global y en la inflación por grupos de productos según la clasificación estándar europea por grupos de productos (ECOICOP).Para ello, estimamos modelos econométricos para medir el efecto de los “shocks” del precio del petróleo en la inflación y hacer predicciones en diferentes escenarios. Los resultados muestran que casi la mitad de la volatilidad en los cambios en la inflación total se explican por cambios en la tasa de crecimiento anual del precio del petróleo. Como era de esperar el componente energético de la inflación es el que absorbe la mayor parte de este efecto...Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interestin describing its effect on inflation. In this work we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, andmaking the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. We also assessthe oil price pass-through into both, the global inflation in Spain and theinflation derived from the non-deterministic prices of the standard Europeanclassification of product groups.To this end, we fit econometric models to measure the effect of oil price shocksin inflation and to predict them under different scenarios. Our results showthat almost half of the volatility of changes in total inflation is explainedby changes in the oil price annual growth rate. As could be expected, the energy component of inflation accounts for most of this effect...Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía CuantitativaFac. de Ciencias Económicas y EmpresarialesTRUEunpu