LUTI modelling in the Netherlands

This paper presents the use of the Dutch LUTI model TIGRIS in the planning process. TIGRIS is a long-term, incremental, time-based interaction and allocation model for land use, mobility, congestion and accessibility. In TIGRIS accessibility is described as a location factor for land-use that generates mobility. This increased mobility leads to congestion and changes in accessibility, and afterwards to new changes in land use. The model is used for regional and national forecasting, and follows a learning-by-doing approach. In this paper four applications of TIGRIS are described with a focus on assessing impacts and the role in the planning process. Because TIGRIS was originally developed as a sketch planning model with limited detail and the calibration on the basis of empirical data was rather limited, a new version, TIGRIS XL, is currently being developed

The logsum as an evaluation measure - review of the literature and new results

Transport infrastructure projects in The Netherlands are appraised ex ante by using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) procedures following the so-called ‘OEI-guidelines’. The project benefits for travellers are incorporated in the form of changes in demand (e.g. from the Dutch national model system, LMS, or the regional models, NRM) and changes in the generalised travel costs (using values of time from Stated Preference studies to monetise travel time savings), and applying the rule of half. While a number of short-term improvements to the current procedures have been improved, it is also interesting to consider a more radical approach using explicit measures of consumer surplus, obtained by integrating the demand models directly. These measures are called logsums, from their functional form. The advantages that the logsums would give to the appraisal procedure would be that logsums can incorporate a degree of heterogeneity in the population, while also being theoretically more correct and in many cases easier to calculate. In this context, the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has commissioned RAND Europe to undertake a study comparing the conventional approach to the use of the logsum change as a measure of the change in consumer surplus that would result from a transport infrastructure project. The paper is based on the work conducted in the study. The paper opens with a review of the literature on the use of logsums as a measure of consumer surplus change in project appraisal and evaluation. It then goes on to describe a case study with the Dutch National Model System (LMS) for transport in which three methods are compared for a specific project (a high speed magnetic hover train that would connect the four main cities in the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht): a.the ‘classical’ CBA approach as described above, b.the improved ‘classical’ CBA approach (introducing a number of short-term improvements) and c.the logsum approach (as a long term improvement). The direct effects of a particular policy on the travellers can be measured as the change in consumer surplus that results from that policy (there can also be indirect and external effects that may not be covered in the consumer surplus change). The consumer surplus associated with a set of alternatives is, under the logit assumptions, relatively easy to calculate. By definition, a person’s consumer surplus is the utility, in money terms, that a person receives in the choice situation. If the unobserved component of utility is independently and identically distributed extreme value and utility is linear in income, then the expected utility becomes the log of the denominator of a logit choice probability, divided by the marginal utility of income, plus arbitrary constants. This if often called the ‘logsum’. Total consumer surplus in the population can be calculated as a weighted sum of logsums over a sample of decision-makers, with the weights reflecting the number of people in the population who face the same representative utilities as the sampled person. The change in consumer surplus is calculated as the difference between the logsum under the conditions before the change and after the change (e.g. introduction of a policy). The arbitrary constants drop out. However, to calculate this change in consumer surplus, the researcher must know the marginal utility of income. Usually a price or cost variable enters the representative utility and, in case that happens in a consistent linear additive fashion, the negative of its coefficient is the marginal utility of income by definition. If the marginal utility of income is not constant with respect to income, as is the case in the LMS and NRM, a far more complex formula is needed, or an indirect approach has to be taken. This paper will review the theoretical literature on the use of the logsum as an evaluation measure, including both the original papers on this from the seventies and the work on the income effect in the nineties. Also recent application studies that used the logsum for evaluation purposes will be reviewed. Finally outcomes of runs with the LMS will be reported for the three different approaches (including the logsum approach) mentioned above for evaluating direct effect of transport policies and projects. Different methods for monetising the logsum change will be compared.

Cross-border Car Traffic in Dutch Mobility Models

Cross-border travel generates a substantial amount of mobility near the borders, but is not a large percentage of total Dutch mobility. However in the border regions of the country, these flows are important. For the Dutch national transport model LMS, O-D matrices are required that include cross-border car travel. This is a challenging task, due to scarcity of data. First, a production model (by travel purpose) is used to calculate the total production of car journeys. Next, these journeys are distributed over domestic and foreign destinations using a simplified destination choice model. From the resulting matrix, domestic journeys are removed and only the border crossing journeys are kept. Domestic journeys are then replaced by the results of the existing much more detailed mode-and destination choice models. The new models are estimated on the Dutch national mobility survey (MON) and are of reasonable quality. The predicted numbers of border crossing journeys to Belgium and Germany are lower than the numbers from traffic counts, and therefore an additional calibration to count data totals is carried out. The results indicate that for commuting the resistance to cross the border is equivalent to 35 (Belgium) or 46 (Germany) minutes extra travel time. Also for all other travel purposes in the model, it is found that the border resistance for journeys to Belgium is smaller than that for journeys to Germany, which can be explained by the additional factor of language difference. The smallest border resistance for both countries is found for shopping journeys

The logsum as an evaluation measure - review of the literature and new results

Transport infrastructure projects in The Netherlands are appraised ex ante by using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) procedures following the so-called 'OEI-guidelines'. The project benefits for travellers are incorporated in the form of changes in demand (e.g. from the Dutch national model system, LMS, or the regional models, NRM) and changes in the generalised travel costs (using values of time from Stated Preference studies to monetise travel time savings), and applying the rule of half. While a number of short-term improvements to the current procedures have been improved, it is also interesting to consider a more radical approach using explicit measures of consumer surplus, obtained by integrating the demand models directly. These measures are called logsums, from their functional form. The advantages that the logsums would give to the appraisal procedure would be that logsums can incorporate a degree of heterogeneity in the population, while also being theoretically more correct and in many cases easier to calculate. In this context, the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has commissioned RAND Europe to undertake a study comparing the conventional approach to the use of the logsum change as a measure of the change in consumer surplus that would result from a transport infrastructure project. The paper is based on the work conducted in the study. The paper opens with a review of the literature on the use of logsums as a measure of consumer surplus change in project appraisal and evaluation. It then goes on to describe a case study with the Dutch National Model System (LMS) for transport in which three methods are compared for a specific project (a high speed magnetic hover train that would connect the four main cities in the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht): a.the 'classical' CBA approach as described above, b.the improved 'classical' CBA approach (introducing a number of short-term improvements) and c.the logsum approach (as a long term improvement). The direct effects of a particular policy on the travellers can be measured as the change in consumer surplus that results from that policy (there can also be indirect and external effects that may not be covered in the consumer surplus change). The consumer surplus associated with a set of alternatives is, under the logit assumptions, relatively easy to calculate. By definition, a person's consumer surplus is the utility, in money terms, that a person receives in the choice situation. If the unobserved component of utility is independently and identically distributed extreme value and utility is linear in income, then the expected utility becomes the log of the denominator of a logit choice probability, divided by the marginal utility of income, plus arbitrary constants. This if often called the 'logsum'. Total consumer surplus in the population can be calculated as a weighted sum of logsums over a sample of decision-makers, with the weights reflecting the number of people in the population who face the same representative utilities as the sampled person. The change in consumer surplus is calculated as the difference between the logsum under the conditions before the change and after the change (e.g. introduction of a policy). The arbitrary constants drop out. However, to calculate this change in consumer surplus, the researcher must know the marginal utility of income. Usually a price or cost variable enters the representative utility and, in case that happens in a consistent linear additive fashion, the negative of its coefficient is the marginal utility of income by definition. If the marginal utility of income is not constant with respect to income, as is the case in the LMS and NRM, a far more complex formula is needed, or an indirect approach has to be taken. This paper will review the theoretical literature on the use of the logsum as an evaluation measure, including both the original papers on this from the seventies and the work on the income effect in the nineties. Also recent application studies that used the logsum for evaluation purposes will be reviewed. Finally outcomes of runs with the LMS will be reported for the three different approaches (including the logsum approach) mentioned above for evaluating direct effect of transport policies and projects. Different methods for monetising the logsum change will be compared

II-I / 1 WORKSHOP ON PRACTITIONER'S FUTURE NEEDS Future Transport and Travel Data Needs A Practitioner's Perspective

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on data collection from the viewpoint of the practitioner. In general, innovation can be considered to be driven by three types of development: (1) exogenous developments in society, (2) policy developments, (3) technical improvements: new modeling techniques, GIS developments, increased computer power, new presentation techniques, etc. The paper will consider each of these developments successively. The paper ends with a "shopping list" of future data needs

Employment location as an instrument of transport policy in the Netherlands : Fundamentals, instruments and effectiveness

This paper presents the employment location policy in the Netherlands as established in 1988. The theoretical concept of 'accessibility profiles' and 'mobility profiles', instruments and empirical evidence are presented. In spite of various possible critical remarks, the basic policy of 'the right business at the right location' is sound and should be continued, if necessary, with some amendments to match local circumstances.

Office suites suit the railways : the effects of office relocation to public transport nodal points on passenger mobility

Dutch location policy attempts to achieve that labour-intensive employment (large number of employees per unit area) is situated close to public transport nodal points. More than on existing employment locations, atte_rttion is focused on new situations. Some years ago, the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (ll.IVM) started a research program to establish the possible effects on mobility of a large-scale relocation of existing office employment to sites well accessible by public transport (Van Wee, 1992). Following literature surveys (Van Wee, 1993a, 1993b, 1994), em- pirical research was carried out (Van Wee, 1995). Employees of two offices of Ri- jkswaterstaat, the public works department of the Ministry of Transport, Public Works, and Water Management were surveyed. Models have been estimated which describe employees\u27 reactions to office relocation (change of dwelling yes/no, change of job yes/no) (Van Wee, 1996a). These models have been applied in a scenario study to evaluate the effects of a large-scale office relocation over a period till 2015 to sites well accessible by public transport (Van Wee, 1996b). Van Wee (1997) gives a sum- mary of the complete research program. This paper focuses on the spatial scenario study. The Rijkswaterstaat survey and the models will be summarised. Furthermore, two of the most important methodoIogical issues will be dealt with: the collection of panel data using only a single survey, and the incorporation of the estimated models into the standard Dutch National Model System (LMS). Section 2 gives an outline of Dutch location policy. Section 3 briefly presents the Ri- jkswaterstaat survey. Section 4 presents the estimated models for employees\u27 reactions to office moves. Section 5 deals with the set-up of the scenario study. Section 6 gives a short presentation of the Dutch National Model. Section 7 deals with how the devel- oped choice models have been embedded in the National Model. Section 8 gives the main results from the scenario study. Section 9 deals with the relevance of the results for Dutch location policy. Section 10 gives the conclusions