The Credibility of International Commitments

Streaming video requires RealPlayer to view.The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.In this lecture, Tomz will present material from "The Credibility of International Commitments," a multi-year project supported by an NSF CAREER grant in which he examines what makes threats and promises believable to international audiences. Tomz focuses on two strategies hypothesized to enhance the credibility of commitments: announcing commitments to domestic/foreign audiences (the "publicity" mechanism) and embedding commitments in treaties (the "legalization" mechanism).Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security StudiesEvent webpage, streaming video, event photo

Do countries default in “bad times”?

This paper uses a new dataset to study the relationship between economic output and sovereign default for the period 1820-2004. We find a negative but surprisingly weak relationship between output and default. Throughout history, countries have indeed defaulted during bad times (when output was relatively low), but they have also maintained debt service in the face of severe adverse shocks, and they have defaulted when domestic economic conditions were favorable. We show that this constitutes a puzzle for standard theories, which predict a much tighter negative relationship as default provides partial insurance against declines in output.Default (Finance) ; Debt

ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression

We study rare events data, binary dependent variables with dozens to thousands of times fewer ones (events, such as wars, vetoes, cases of political activism, or epidemiological infections) than zeros ("nonevents"). In many literatures, these variables have proven difficult to explain and predict, a problem that seems to have at least two sources. First, popular statistical procedures, such as logistic regression, can shar ply underestimate the probability of rare events. We recommend corrections that outperform existing methods and change the estimates of absolute and relative risks by as much as some estimated effects repor ted in the literature. Second, commonly used data collection strategies are grossly inefficient for rare events data. The fear of collecting data with too few events has led to data collections with huge numbers of obser vations but relatively few, and poorly measured, explanator y variables, such as in international conflict data with more than a quarter-million dyads, only a few of which are at war. As it turns out, more efficient sampling designs exist for making valid inferences, such as sampling all available events (e.g., wars) and a tiny fraction of nonevents (peace). This enables scholars to save as much as 99% of their (nonfixed) data collection costs or to collect much more meaningful explanator y variables. We provide methods that link these two results, enabling both types of corrections to work simultaneously, and software that implements the methods developed

Clarify: Software for Interpretng and Presenting Statistical Results

Governmen

Polls and elections: Is Loyalty a Powerful Thing? Republican Senate Campaign Strategy and Trump Coattails in the 2016 Election

Presidential candidates provide a boost to their congressional candidate counterparts, in which congressional candidates should ride the proverbial coattails into office (Campbell and Sumners 1990; Stewart 1989). The 2016 election, however, provides an instance in which the presidential coattails were less than desirable. In this article, we argue that state politics determines the optimal strategy for how candidates should position themselves vis‐à‐vis a controversial presidential candidate. Based on our findings, voters rewarded candidates at varying levels for distancing themselves from then candidate Trump. Specifically, the disloyal strategy, in which candidates completely disavowed Trump, worked best in swing states and among Democrats, liberals, and Clinton voters. The ambiguous strategy, in which candidates took an unclear position on Trump, was less effective, but still received gains in appeal among independents and liberals

Voting Technology, Vote-by-Mail, and Residual Votes in California, 1990-2010

This paper examines how the growth in vote-by-mail and changes in voting technologies led to changes in the residual vote rate in California from 1990 to 2010. We find that in California’s presidential elections, counties that abandoned punch cards in favor of optical scanning enjoyed a significant improvement in the residual vote rate. However, these findings do not always translate to other races. For instance, find that the InkaVote system in Los Angeles has been a mixed success, performing very well in presidential and gubernatorial races, fairly well for ballot propositions, and poorly in Senate races. We also conduct the first analysis of the effects of the rise of vote-by-mail on residual votes. Regardless of the race, increased use of the mails to cast ballots is robustly associated with a rise in the residual vote rate. The effect is so strong that the rise of voting by mail in California has mostly wiped out all the reductions in residual votes that were due to improved voting technologies since the early 1990s

The Potential of Regional Integration Agreements (RIAs) in Enhancing the Credibility of Reform: The Case of the Syrian-European Association Agreement

The effect of 'locking-in' economic reform and enhancing its credibility is generally regarded as one of the most important potential effects of regional integration. Based on a detailed review of the theoretical debate, this paper develops a general framework for assessment to evaluate the ability of RIAs to serve as effective mechanisms for 'commitment' and 'signalling'. In the second part, this assessment framework is applied to the case of the Syrian-European Association Agreement (AA). Syria initialled an AA with the European Union in October 2004, but two and a half years later, this agreement is still pending formal signature. The empirical findings of this study show that despite several shortcomings, the Syrian-European AA, if it were to come into force, should be able to deliver an appropriate mechanism for signalling and commitment and thus to improve the credibility of the Syrian process of reform at home and abroad. A major loophole of the agreement, however, is represented by its lack of incentives to increase the 'rewards for good policy'.Der Effekt der Verankerung von Reformen und die Erhöhung ihrer Glaubwürdigkeit (Lock-in-Effekt) gilt allgemein als einer der wichtigsten Effekte der regionalen Integration. Aufbauend auf einer detaillierten Betrachtung der theoretischen Debatte zum 'Lock-in-Effekt' wird in diesem Papier ein allgemeiner Analyserahmen entworfen, der dazu dient, die Fähigkeit von RIA als Mechanismen der Signalisierung und Selbstbindung zu bewerten. Im anschließenden zweiten Teil wird dieser Analyserahmen auf das Beispiel des Syrisch-Europäischen Assoziierungsabkommens angewendet. Syrien initialisierte im Oktober 2004 ein Assoziierungsabkommen mit der Europäischen Union. Zweieinhalb Jahre später ist dieses Abkommen noch immer nicht formell unterzeichnet. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zeigen, dass das Syrisch-Europäische Assoziierungsabkommen - sollte es in Kraft treten - trotz einiger Mängel einen adäquaten Mechanismus der Signalisierung und Selbstbindung liefern und dazu beitragen kann, die Glaubwürdigkeit des syrischen Reformprozesses in - und außerhalb des Landes zu verbessern. Eine wesentliche Schwäche des Abkommensentwurfs liegt allerdings in mangelnden Anreizen für eine 'Belohnung der guten Politik'

Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space

Civil wars cluster in space as well as time. In this study, we develop and evaluate empirically alternative explanations for this observed clustering. We consider whether the spatial pattern of intrastate conflict simply stems from a similar distribution of relevant country attributes or whether conflicts indeed constitute a threat to other proximate states. Our results strongly suggest that there is a genuine neighborhood effect of armed conflict, over and beyond what individual country characteristics can account for. We then examine whether the risk of contagion depends on the degree of exposure to proximate conflicts. Contrary to common expectations, this appears not to be the case. Rather, we find that conflict is more likely when there are ethnic ties to groups in a neighboring conflict and that contagion is primarily a feature of separatist conflicts. This suggests that transnational ethnic linkages constitute a central mechanism of conflict contagion. © 2008 International Studies Association