Terms and conditions for the implementation of Inflation targeting in Croatia

Since the introduction of the Stabilization program in 1993, the Croatian National Bank has been following the monetary strategy of exchange rate anchor. During the first several years (from 1993 to 1997) this monetary strategy achieved acceptable results, accompanied with a low inflation rate and high GDP growth rates. However, the macroeconomic situation has changed in the last decade. The indicators of Croatian economy, such as trade balance, the level of external debt and GDP growth rates, are not satisfying. The criticizers of exchange rate anchor monetary strategy argue that appreciated kuna lowers the competitiveness of the domestic economy. Due to that, the current monetary strategy is in the focus of various economists' discussions. One of the alternatives to the exchange rate anchor is inflation targeting. There are different theoretical and practical issues connected to the implementation of this, very popular, monetary strategy. Before the implementation of inflation targeting, the following conditions need to be fulfilled: (1) the independence of monetary authorities in choosing the monetary instruments should be achieved, (2) at least one monetary policy instrument should be efficient, and (3) the transparency of monetary policy should be accomplished. The process itself consists of several decisions, such as choosing the proper measure of inflation, the level of targeted inflation, targeted range or point etc., which is still a matter of theoretical debates. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the above mentioned debate. After the theoretical discussion, the inflation targeting will be analyzed from the two perspectives. Firstly, in order to evaluate the capability of Croatia to implement the inflation targeting, the analysis of the Croatian monetary system will be given. Secondly, in order to asses the suitability of the inflation targeting as Croatian monetary strategy, both positive and negative characteristics of this strategy will be considered.inflation targeting, monetary strategy, Croatia

Central bank independence: The case of Croatia

A trend of increasing role of central bank's independence took place in the most of modern economies. The central bank independence (CBI) is seen as a way of bringing economy to a higher level. It is argued that an independent central bank is more credible and moreover, that the higher degree of central bank independence facilitates central bank to identify signals of financial problems and alert financial markets. Furthermore, an independent central bank is less likely to be exposed to the inflationary bias, inherent in monetary policy, and is more aware of the inflation costs of expansionary monetary policy. This is in line with Friedman’s theoretical concept that the phenomenon of inflation is to be regulated by controlling the amount of money poured into the national economy by the central bank. In order to achieve the main goal; price stability, it is essential for a central bank to be connected to government as little as possible. However, governments generally have a certain influence over central banks, even in the case of banks who claim to be independent. The first part of the paper offers theoretical background for the central bank independence (CBI concept). The empirical evidence on the relationship between central bank independence and economic variables suggests negative relationship between central bank independence and inflation. The strong evidence of central bank independence influence on other macroeconomic variables so far has not been found. The analysis of the independence of Croatian national bank was made using 3 different methods; 1) central bank governor turnover rate (TOR), 2) Petursson G. Thorarinn criterion and 3) Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (CWN) questionnaire. The obtained results affirm high level of central bank independence in Croatia.monetary policy, central bank independence

(I)rationality of Investors on Croatian Stock Market – Explaining the Impact of American Indices on Croatian Stock Market

This study aims to detect and explain co-movements and spill over effects between American and Croatian stock markets. Following the methodology and findings of Erjavec and Cota (2007), the dependency of the Crobex index to the main US indices (DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ) is further examined. The econometric study is widened, and the persistent relationship between Croatian and American indices is additionally elaborated using ARIMA and GARCH models using a different data set (January 3rd, 2005 to November 6th, 2008). Despite the fact that intra-sectoral connections between Croatian and American business sectors are rather weak, it is clear that the investors on the Croatian stock market dominantly rely on American indices movements. This was especially apparent during the beginning of the World Financial Crisis in October 2008 when the prices of Croatian companies had almost nothing to do with their business results. The behaviour of Croatian investors was largely based on the psychological effects of the crisis, and this is why behavioural finance is introduced to explain what pure financial reasoning could not. High correlation and co-movements between Croatian and American indices could be explained by three concepts; global factors, contagion and irrational escalation.ARIMA, GARCH, Crobex, Zagreb Stock Exchange, financial crisis, behavioural finance

Macro & micro aspects of the standard of living and quality of life in a small transition economy: The case of Croatia

Increasing role of quality of life and standard of living took place in countries all over the world, especially nowadays, when numerous effects of the global crisis are felt all over the world. Emerging crisis caused many problems; thereby, in the current situation it is interesting to examine the level of the quality of life and standard of living. The purpose of this paper is to define standard of living and quality of life using objective and subjective indicators. Moreover, special emphasis is on the evaluation of quality of life and living standard in Croatia. After short overview of general development of concepts of standard of living and quality of life, situation in Croatia is analyzed in more details by using different indicators; GDP per capita, shopping basket, GFK basket, households’ expenditures, poverty rate, income inequality, HDI, life satisfaction and happiness, deprivation and optimism about the future. The measures show an increase in the standard of living and quality of life in Croatia, but more importantly, they also show the trend of constant increase in the living costs and the rate of poverty. The level of HDI suggests high level of human development and the results of the level of satisfaction imply that people in Croatia are moderately satisfied with their lives and enjoy a rather high level of happiness. Concerning optimism about the future, Croatian people are mostly optimistic.standard of living, quality of life

Terms and conditions for the implementation of inflation targeting in Croatia

Since the introduction of the Stabilization program in 1993, the Croatian National Bank has been following the monetary strategy of exchange rate anchor. During the first several years (from 1993 to 1997) this monetary strategy achieved acceptable results, accompanied with a low inflation rate and high GDP growth rates. However, the macroeconomic situation has changed in the last decade. The indicators of Croatian economy, such as trade balance, the level of external debt and GDP growth rates, are not satisfying. The criticizers of exchange rate anchor monetary strategy argue that appreciated kuna lowers the competitiveness of the domestic economy. Due to that, the current monetary strategy is in the focus of various economists\u27 discussions. One of the alternatives to the exchange rate anchor is inflation targeting. There are different theoretical and practical issues connected to the implementation of this, very popular, monetary strategy. Before the implementation of inflation targeting, the following conditions need to be fulfilled: (1) the independence of monetary authorities in choosing the monetary instruments should be achieved, (2) at least one monetary policy instrument should be efficient, and (3) the transparency of monetary policy should be accomplished. The process itself consists of several decisions, such as choosing the proper measure of inflation, the level of targeted inflation, targeted range or point etc., which is still a matter of theoretical debates. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the above mentioned debate. After the theoretical discussion, the inflation targeting will be analyzed from the two perspectives. Firstly, in order to evaluate the capability of Croatia to implement the inflation targeting, the analysis of the Croatian monetary system will be given. Secondly, in order to asses the suitability of the inflation targeting as Croatian monetary strategy, both positive and negative characteristics of this strategy will be considered

Macro & micro aspects of standard of living and quality of life in a small transition economy: The case of Croatia

Increasing role of quality of life and standard of living took place in countries all over the world, especially nowadays, when numerous effects of the global crisis are felt all over the world. Emerging crisis caused many problems; thereby, in the current situation it is interesting to examine the level of the quality of life and standard of living. The purpose of this paper is to define standard of living and quality of life using objective and subjective indicators. Moreover, special emphasis is on the evaluation of quality of life and living standard in Croatia. After short overview of general development of concepts of standard of living and quality of life, situation in Croatia is analyzed in more details by using different indicators; GDP per capita, shopping basket, GFK basket, households’ expenditures, poverty rate, income inequality, HDI, life satisfaction and happiness, deprivation and optimism about the future. The measures show an increase in the standard of living and quality of life in Croatia, but more importantly, they also show the trend of constant increase in the living costs and the rate of poverty. The level of HDI suggests high level of human development and the results of the level of satisfaction imply that people in Croatia are moderately satisfied with their lives and enjoy a rather high level of happiness. Concerning optimism about the future, Croatian people are mostly optimistic

Central bank independence: The case of Croatia

A trend of increasing role of central bank\u27s independence took place in the most of modern economies. The central bank independence (CBI) is seen as a way of bringing economy to a higher level. It is argued that an independent central bank is more credible and moreover, that the higher degree of central bank independence facilitates central bank to identify signals of financial problems and alert financial markets. Furthermore, an independent central bank is less likely to be exposed to the inflationary bias, inherent in monetary policy, and is more aware of the inflation costs of expansionary monetary policy. This is in line with Friedman’s theoretical concept that the phenomenon of inflation is to be regulated by controlling the amount of money poured into the national economy by the central bank. In order to achieve the main goal; price stability, it is essential for a central bank to be connected to government as little as possible. However, governments generally have a certain influence over central banks, even in the case of banks who claim to be independent. The first part of the paper offers theoretical background for the central bank independence (CBI concept). The empirical evidence on the relationship between central bank independence and economic variables suggests negative relationship between central bank independence and inflation. The strong evidence of central bank independence influence on other macroeconomic variables so far has not been found. The analysis of the independence of Croatian national bank was made using 3 different methods; 1) central bank governor turnover rate (TOR), 2) Petursson G. Thorarinn criterion and 3) Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (CWN) questionnaire. The obtained results affirm high level of central bank independence in Croatia

Central bank independence: The case of Croatia

A trend of increasing role of central bank\u27s independence took place in the most of modern economies. The central bank independence (CBI) is seen as a way of bringing economy to a higher level. It is argued that an independent central bank is more credible and moreover, that the higher degree of central bank independence facilitates central bank to identify signals of financial problems and alert financial markets. Furthermore, an independent central bank is less likely to be exposed to the inflationary bias, inherent in monetary policy, and is more aware of the inflation costs of expansionary monetary policy. This is in line with Friedman’s theoretical concept that the phenomenon of inflation is to be regulated by controlling the amount of money poured into the national economy by the central bank. In order to achieve the main goal; price stability, it is essential for a central bank to be connected to government as little as possible. However, governments generally have a certain influence over central banks, even in the case of banks who claim to be independent. The first part of the paper offers theoretical background for the central bank independence (CBI concept). The empirical evidence on the relationship between central bank independence and economic variables suggests negative relationship between central bank independence and inflation. The strong evidence of central bank independence influence on other macroeconomic variables so far has not been found. The analysis of the independence of Croatian national bank was made using 3 different methods; 1) central bank governor turnover rate (TOR), 2) Petursson G. Thorarinn criterion and 3) Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (CWN) questionnaire. The obtained results affirm high level of central bank independence in Croatia

Terms and conditions for the implementation of inflation targeting in Croatia

Since the introduction of the Stabilization program in 1993, the Croatian National Bank has been following the monetary strategy of exchange rate anchor. During the first several years (from 1993 to 1997) this monetary strategy achieved acceptable results, accompanied with a low inflation rate and high GDP growth rates. However, the macroeconomic situation has changed in the last decade. The indicators of Croatian economy, such as trade balance, the level of external debt and GDP growth rates, are not satisfying. The criticizers of exchange rate anchor monetary strategy argue that appreciated kuna lowers the competitiveness of the domestic economy. Due to that, the current monetary strategy is in the focus of various economists\u27 discussions. One of the alternatives to the exchange rate anchor is inflation targeting. There are different theoretical and practical issues connected to the implementation of this, very popular, monetary strategy. Before the implementation of inflation targeting, the following conditions need to be fulfilled: (1) the independence of monetary authorities in choosing the monetary instruments should be achieved, (2) at least one monetary policy instrument should be efficient, and (3) the transparency of monetary policy should be accomplished. The process itself consists of several decisions, such as choosing the proper measure of inflation, the level of targeted inflation, targeted range or point etc., which is still a matter of theoretical debates. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the above mentioned debate. After the theoretical discussion, the inflation targeting will be analyzed from the two perspectives. Firstly, in order to evaluate the capability of Croatia to implement the inflation targeting, the analysis of the Croatian monetary system will be given. Secondly, in order to asses the suitability of the inflation targeting as Croatian monetary strategy, both positive and negative characteristics of this strategy will be considered

HRVATSKI PUT PREMA ERM 2: ZAŠTO, KAKO I ŠTO MOŽEMO NAUČITI OD DRUGIH ZEMALJA?

In this paper we analyze different aspects of Croatian path to the monetary union and its current readiness to join the ERM 2 mechanism. Firstly, we present and discuss costs and benefits of euro adoption. Second, we use descriptive analysis to determine Croatia’s current position in relation to convergence criteria and discuss the possible timing of Croatian accession to the ERM 2. Thirdly, we analyze experiences of two NMS peers, Slovenia and Slovakia, before and after joining ERM 2 and highlight key lessons for Croatian policy makers. As Croatia is highly euroised (high FX risk) small and open economy, strongly integrated in EA trade and financial chains, with limited possibilities of monetary policy, the benefits of euro adoption would outweigh all commonly mentioned costs. Regarding convergence criteria, the biggest obstacle of Croatian access to ERM 2 mechanism is the level of public debt but recent developments and adjustments of SGP suggest that Croatia could satisfy the adjusted fiscal criteria already in several years. Experiences of Slovenia and Slovakia show that determined steps towards the euro (primarily ERM 2) can serve as an important policy credibility anchor and put a positive pressure on policy makers to preserve internal and external stability of the country and implement various structural reforms in order to achieve convergence with the euro zone members.U ovom radu autori analiziraju različite aspekte pristupanja Hrvatske europodručju i ocjenjuju trenutačnu spremnost Hrvatske za ulazak u tečajni mehanizam ERM 2. Prvo, u radu se sažeto prikazuju potencijalni troškovi i koristi od uvođenja eura kao nacionalne valute. Drugo, koristeći metodu deskriptivne statistike, autori utvrđuju trenutačnu poziciju Hrvatske u odnosu na konvergencijske kriterije te određuju potencijalni (realističan) trenutak ulaska u tečajni mehanizam ERM 2. Treće, autori analiziraju iskustva usporedivih zemalja članica Nove Europe, Slovenije i Slovačke, prije i nakon ulaska u ERM 2 te ističu ključne pouke za nositelje politike u Hrvatskoj. Budući da je Hrvatska visoko euroizirana, mala, otvorena ekonomija, snažno integrirana u trgovinske i financijske tokove europodručja te da već ima ograničen suverenitet monetarne politike, u radu se zaključuje kako potencijalne prednosti uvođenja eura nadmašuju sve potencijalne troškove. Što se tiče konvergencijskih kriterija, najveća prepreka ulasku u ERM 2 predstavlja visoka razina javnog duga, ali nedavne izmjene Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu te uvođenje novog kriterija duga omogućavaju Hrvatskoj da zadovolji i novi kriterij duga u sljedećih nekoliko godina. Iskustva Slovenije i Slovačke pokazuju da odlučan put prema euru (prvenstveno boravak u ERM 2) može poslužiti kao važno sidro kredibiliteta ekonomske politike i potaknuti nositelje politike da očuvaju internu i eksternu stabilnost zemlje te implementiraju različite strukturne reforme kako bi ostvarili što veći stupanj konvergencije prema zemljama euro područja