Decomposition of Long-term Changes in Political Opinions According to Group-Specific Markov Processes

;In this paper I use longitudinal data for Poland to test the assumption that political opinion change through time is not entirely due to some universal and time-constant processes; rather, it depends on the initial conditions in a person’s state. Information on Poles’ evaluations of the past socialist regime available for repeated intervals, and over a sufficiently long time period—ten years—allows me to decompose long-term changes in assessment of socialism into short-term change, and the reliability of responses according to group-specific Markov processes. I obtain three types of stochastic matrices: Mt, t+10, Mt, t+1, Mrel = R, where M refers to a matrix of opinions in time t by opinions in subsequent time, t refers to specific years, and R is the reliability matrix from the measurement of opinions in one-month period. To assess the fit of the observed transition matrix for the 10-year period as a linear combination of matrices Mt, t+1 and Mrel, I apply the random effect maximum likelihood function in STATA, with the bootstrap option for obtaining the standard errors of the coefficients. Results demonstrate that Markovtype processes do not have significant explanatory power for long-term change in opinions about socialism. Substantively, this means that the ‘subjective’ legacy of the past, namely peoples’ views of the former regime, matters

Changes in Social Structure, Class, and Stratification: The Polish Panel Survey (POLPAN)

We present an overview of the intellectual foundations and some major research questions and topics of the Polish Panel Survey (POLPAN). Carried out since 1988 in 5-year intervals, with the latest in 2013, POLPAN is the longest continuously run panel survey on changes in social structure, class and stratification in Central and Eastern Europe. The 2018 round is in planning. POLPAN is strongly anchored in recent theoretical innovations surrounding analyses of social structure and its change, as well as in the most up-to-date survey methodology. As such, POLPAN has major substantive and methodological contributions. Substantively, POLPAN constitutes a breakthrough that stems from taking into account individuals' life courses in a long time span. Methodologically, POLPAN enhances knowledge about how to conduct long-term panel studies and how to assess the quality of this type of data. Social scientists interested in the dynamics of social structure, class, and stratification, as well as political attitudes and behaviors, have a wealth of data with which to address timeless and timely research questions from a variety of perspectives and fields

Effects of Future Orientations on Income Attainment and Social Class: An Analysis of Polish Panel Data

This paper examines the role of psychological determinants for Poles’ location in the postcommunist social structure, above and beyond the traditional determinants of occupational achievement. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior, I expect that peoples’ outlook on the future-whether in terms of perceived opportunities and threats or a more general view of the times ahead-has a lasting impact on their success, understood here as attaining higher income and/or privileged class membership. I analyze this relation over time, considering that the current status (St) is an additive function of future orientations (Ft−1) and earlier status (St−2). The Polish Panel Survey POLPAN 1988–2008 represents the backbone for my analyses. In this survey a representative sample of adult Poles was interviewed in 1988 and re-interviewed in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. I analyze these panel data with lag variables, using OLS estimates and logistic regression for particular time-points. I also use cross-sectional time-series analysis to account for autocorrelation and multicollinearity stemming form the data’s hierarchical structure. Results support the main hypothesis in this study: consistently, thinking confidently about the future has positive effects on earnings and on belonging to the privileged social classes. This impact is substantive and statistically significant when prior income and social class, demographic characteristics, and education are controlled for

International Experience and Labour Market Success: Analysing Panel Data from Poland

International experience, defined here as living abroad for two or more months, should enhance individual success on the labour market, ceteris paribus, thanks to the human capital and economic resources that accrue. I use the Polish Panel Survey POLPAN 1988–2008 to examine the impact of having spent at least two months in a foreign country on (a) relative income gains, and (b) the odds of moving into the social class that gained most from the post-communist transformation, employers. In part of the analysis I treat the data as cross-sectional and use OLS regression with lag variables and correction for intra-group correlation. Due to methodological specificity of repeated measurement, I also use panel regression analysis. For both manifestations of individual success, results strongly support the hypothesis of the positive impact of international experience. They also show that international experience is especially valuable for Poles who acquired basic business skills during state socialism