In search for accumulative effects of European economic integration

The forthcoming eastern enlargement of the European Union is generally perceived to constitute one of the most significant challenges to the process of European integration so far. The economic impact of the enlargement is likely to be considerable. The enlargement, as any other previous episodes of integration deepening or widening, is going to trigger various static as well as dynamic effects. Due to the increase in internal heterogeneity of the economic block, the effects are likely to be spatially asymmetric. From the point of view of both existing as well as acceding member states the dynamic growth or accumulative effect understood as a permanent change in the long-term average growth rate of GDP per capita is especially appealing. However, theoretical and empirical studies are rather inconclusive as to the very existence, direction and significance of long-term growth effects of economic integration in general and of European integration process in particular. The present study attempts to shed some light on the issue. The study utilizes a two-way panel data approach to analyze a balanced panel of data composed of a group of 20 developed countries covering eight consecutive subperiods between 1960-1999.European economic integration, economic growth, panel data estimation

Deep determinants of economic growth – empirical verification with panel data models

We verify the impact of the so-called deep determinants on the level of economic real GDP per capita for an unbalanced panel of 207 economies within the period 1996-2004 using the Hausman-Taylor method of estimation. Institutional variables are detected to be endogenous. The results confirmed the assumed impact of deep determinants on the observed disparities in economic development. In most cases the basic specification of the model suggested by the empirical literature (log of openness, rule of law, distance from equator) is statistically significant and the impact of the variables has the anticipated direction. Several other specifications are tested and they perform pretty well. As the distance from equator has been detected not to be statistically insignificant in several specifications (for Asia and Europe) a combination of exogenous geographical variables enters the model with positive results. The basic specification of the model fits well the context of Africa and South America. It however performs badly for Asia. The quality of institutions is of prime importance for southern hemisphere economies as well as for former (currently economies in transition) and current socialist economies. The permanent improvement in the quality of institutions is the key determinant of success of economic transformation – underperformance in this area leads to smaller gains in terms of GDP per capita levels attained.economic growth, economic development, institutions, geography, openness, panel data models, Hausman-Taylor estimator

Handel zagraniczny panstw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej. Zmiany strukturalne i rola handlu wewnatrzgaleziowego.

The goal of this article is to investigate structural adjustments in trade relations of the Visegrad countries resulting from their accession into the European Union and advanced stage of economic transition. Particular emphasis is placed on the similarity of adjustments in geographic trade patterns, the intensity and nature of intra-industry trade flows and their decomposition into horizontal and vertical IIT with up-market and down-market specialization. The paper utilizes a novel approach proposed by Ito and Okubo (2011) using the full information on price differentials in imports and exports to calculate unit value differences measure of intra-industry trade. The method brings a considerable improvement in comparison to previous methods. The empirical results for this particular group of small open-economies are compared with theoretical postulates of new trade theories. English summary. Paper in Polish.international trade, intra-industry trade, Visehrad group, up-market specialization, down-market specialization

Glebokie determinanty wzrostu gospodarczego – weryfikacja empiryczna z wykorzystaniem metod estymacji panelowych.

Na bazie niezbilansowanego panelu danych dla okresu 1996 – 2004 oraz 207 panstw i terytoriow dokonano oceny znaczenia glebokich determinant wzrostu w determinowaniu poziomu rozwoju gospodarczego. W odroznieniu od dotychczasowej analizy empirycznej przedmiotu wykorzystano panelowe modele ekonometryczne szacowane przy pomocy metody Hausmana-Taylora. Analiza ekonometryczna wskazala na endogenicznosc zmiennych instytucjonalnych. Uzyskane wyniki potwierdzily statystyczna istotnosc glebokich determinant w wyjasnieniu roznic w poziomie rozwoju. W wiekszosci przypadkow specyfikacja bazowa modelu – obejmujaca logarytm naturalny indeksu otwartosci, rzady prawa oraz odleglosc od rownika – okazala sie miec statystycznie istotny wplyw na poziom rozwoju gospodarczego, a kierunek ich oddzialywania jest zgodny z oczekiwaniami. Okazalo sie jednoczesnie, ¿e zmienne powy¿sze moga byc zastapione przez inne zmienne instytucjonalne (m.in. efektywnosc rzadow czy jakosc regulacji), czy zmienne geograficzne (w tym kilka zmiennych geograficznych jednoczesnie) przy zachowaniu kierunku i istotnosci wplywu. Ma to o tyle du¿e znaczenie, ¿e w przypadku Europy i Azji odleglosc od rownika okazala sie nie odgrywac statystycznie istotnej roli w determinowaniu poziomu rozwoju. Ogolnie rzecz biorac model bazowy sprawdza sie bardzo dobrze w przypadku Afryki i Ameryki Poludniowej wydaje sie natomiast niedopasowany do specyfiki kontynentu azjatyckiego. Jakosc instytucji wydaje sie miec szczegolnie du¿e znaczenie w determinowaniu rozwoju panstw polkuli poludniowej jak i obecnych i bylych panstw socjalistycznych. Dla osiagniecia korzysci rozwojowych w procesie transformacji systemowej szczegolnie du¿y nacisk nale¿y polo¿yc na jak najlepsza i trwala poprawe jakosci instytucji.economic growth, deep determinants, geography, integration, openness, institutions, panel data, Hausman-Taylor estimator

Relative Centrality or Peripheriality and the Growth Effects of Relative Centrality or Peripheriality and the Growth Effects of Economic Integration within the European Union

In the paper we construct two novel indices of relative centrality – peripheriality in order to test whether location has an impact on medium and long-run gains related to economic integration within the European Union. We utilize two popular econometric approaches – standard cross- sectional growth regressions as well as dynamic panel data models. The study is undertaken for a data panel consisting of 27 developed economies (15 EU Member States and 12 non-member states) within a period 1960 and 1999. Our results indicate at least to some extent that in accordance with the new economic geography models (NEG) relative location within large regional integration arrangement such as the European Union could affect growth effects associated with economic integration. Furthermore, the benefits are found to be asymmetrical between the core and peripheral regions. This results, however, need further empirical investigation as they are found to be sensitive.economic growth, European economic integration, dynamic panel data models, system GMM estimator, new economic geography