Parameterized Temperature Scaling for Boosting the Expressive Power in Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into calibrated confidence scores using post-hoc calibration methods. In this contribution, we demonstrate that the performance of accuracy-preserving state-of-the-art post-hoc calibrators is limited by their intrinsic expressive power. We generalize temperature scaling by computing prediction-specific temperatures, parameterized by a neural network. We show with extensive experiments that our novel accuracy-preserving approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms across a large number of model architectures, datasets and metrics.Comment: Technical repor

Quality Control at Your Fingertips: Quality-Aware Translation Models

Maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) decoding is the most widely used decoding strategy for neural machine translation (NMT) models. The underlying assumption is that model probability correlates well with human judgment, with better translations being more likely. However, research has shown that this assumption does not always hold, and decoding strategies which directly optimize a utility function, like Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) or Quality-Aware decoding can significantly improve translation quality over standard MAP decoding. The main disadvantage of these methods is that they require an additional model to predict the utility, and additional steps during decoding, which makes the entire process computationally demanding. In this paper, we propose to make the NMT models themselves quality-aware by training them to estimate the quality of their own output. During decoding, we can use the model's own quality estimates to guide the generation process and produce the highest-quality translations possible. We demonstrate that the model can self-evaluate its own output during translation, eliminating the need for a separate quality estimation model. Moreover, we show that using this quality signal as a prompt during MAP decoding can significantly improve translation quality. When using the internal quality estimate to prune the hypothesis space during MBR decoding, we can not only further improve translation quality, but also reduce inference speed by two orders of magnitude

Towards Trustworthy Predictions from Deep Neural Networks with Fast Adversarial Calibration

To facilitate a wide-spread acceptance of AI systems guiding decision making in real-world applications, trustworthiness of deployed models is key. That is, it is crucial for predictive models to be uncertainty-aware and yield well-calibrated (and thus trustworthy) predictions for both in-domain samples as well as under domain shift. Recent efforts to account for predictive uncertainty include post-processing steps for trained neural networks, Bayesian neural networks as well as alternative non-Bayesian approaches such as ensemble approaches and evidential deep learning. Here, we propose an efficient yet general modelling approach for obtaining well-calibrated, trustworthy probabilities for samples obtained after a domain shift. We introduce a new training strategy combining an entropy-encouraging loss term with an adversarial calibration loss term and demonstrate that this results in well-calibrated and technically trustworthy predictions for a wide range of domain drifts. We comprehensively evaluate previously proposed approaches on different data modalities, a large range of data sets including sequence data, network architectures and perturbation strategies. We observe that our modelling approach substantially outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches, yielding well-calibrated predictions under domain drift.Comment: In Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2021). Code available at https://github.com/tochris/falco

Beyond In-Domain Scenarios: Robust Density-Aware Calibration

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.Comment: In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2023. Code available at https://github.com/futakw/DensityAwareCalibratio