Climate change and slope stability in the UK: challenges and approaches

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring and that this will affect the processes and parameters that determine the stability of slopes. There remains, however, significant uncertainty in forecasting these changes in the long term. This issue was addressed in a series of workshops, organized as part of a UK-wide network on CLimate Impact Forecasting For Slopes (CLIFFS). The major outcomes from the workshop discussions provide a focus for the modelling environment relevant to long-term forecasting of slope stability that include better definition of material properties, improved understanding of processes (notably an upgrading from the site-specific to the regional scale) and more effective communication to achieve synergies of understanding in this multidisciplinary research environment

Comparing threshold definition techniques for rainfall induced landslides: a national assessment using radar rainfall

Translational landslides and debris flows are often initiated during intense or prolonged rainfall. Empirical thresholds aim to classify the rain conditions that are commonly associated to landslide occurrence and therefore improve understating of these hazards and predictive ability. Objective techniques which are used to determine these thresholds are likely to be affected by the length of the rain record used, yet this is not routinely considered. Moreover, remotely sensed spatially continuous rainfall observations are under-exploited. This study compares and evaluates the effect of rain record length on two objective threshold selection techniques in a national assessment of Scotland using weather radar data. Thresholds selected by ‘Threat Score’ are sensitive to rain record length whereas, in a first application to landslides, ‘Optimal Point’ (OP) thresholds prove relatively consistent. OP thresholds increase landslide detection and may therefore be applicable in early warning systems. Thresholds combining 1 and 12-day antecedence variables best distinguish landslide initiation conditions and indicate that Scottish landslides may be initiated by lower rain accumulation and intensities than previously thought

Preface to the special issue on "Loess engineering properties and loess geohazards"

Preface to the special issue on "Loess engineering properties and loess geohazards

Implementing positivity constraints in 4-D resistivity time-lapse inversion

Over the last 25 years 2-D and 3-D resistivity surveys have been used for a wide range of engineering, environmental, hydrological and mineral exploration surveys (Loke et al. 2013). In some surveys, the purpose includes the monitoring of subsurface changes with time (Chambers et al. 2014). The 4-D smoothness-constrained inversion method (Loke et al. 2014) has proved to be a stable and robust method for the inversion of time-lapse data sets. This method inverts the data sets measured at different times simultaneously and it includes a temporal smoothness constraint to ensure that the resistivity changes in a smooth manner with time. In some surveys, such as infiltration experiments (Kuras et al. 2016), it is known that the subsurface resistivity should only decrease (or increase) with time. As the standard 4-D inversion method does not explicitly constrain the direction of the changes with time, this could result in artefacts where an increase in the resistivity is obtained in the inverse model while it is only expected to decrease (or vice versa). In this paper we describe a modification of the 4-D smoothness-constrained inversion method to remove such temporal artefacts

Landslide characterization using P- and S-wave seismic refraction tomography — The importance of elastic moduli

© 2016 In the broad spectrum of natural hazards, landslides in particular are capable of changing the landscape and causing significant human and economic losses. Detailed site investigations form an important component in the landslide risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction process. These investigations usually rely on surface observations, discrete sampling of the subsurface, and laboratory testing to examine properties that are deemed representative of entire slopes. Often this requires extensive interpolations and results in large uncertainties. To compliment and extend these approaches, we present a study from an active landslide in a Lias Group clay slope, North Yorkshire, UK, examining combined P- and S-wave seismic refraction tomography (SRT) as a means of providing subsurface volumetric imaging of geotechnical proxies. The distributions of seismic wave velocities determined from SRT at the study site indicated zones with higher porosity and fissure density that are interpreted to represent the extent and depth of mass movements and weathered bedrock zones. Distinguishing the lithological units was facilitated by deriving the Poisson's ratio from the SRT data as saturated clay and partially saturated sandy silts showed distinctively different Poisson's ratios. Shear and Young's moduli derived from the SRT data revealed the weak nature of the materials in active parts of the landslide (i.e. 25 kPa and 100 kPa respectively). The SRT results are consistent with intrusive (i.e. cone penetration tests), laboratory, and additional geoelectrical data from this site. This study shows that SRT forms a cost-effective method that can significantly reduce uncertainties in the conceptual ground model of geotechnical and hydrological conditions that govern landslide dynamics

Satellite-based emergency mapping using optical imagery: experience and reflections from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes

Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response

Challenges in monitoring and managing engineered slopes in a changing climate

© 2016 The Authors. Geotechnical asset owners need to know which parts of their asset network are vulnerable to climate change induced failure in order to optimise future investment. Protecting these vulnerable slopes requires monitoring systems capable of identifying and alerting to asset operators changes in the internal conditions that precede failure. Current monitoring systems are heavily reliant on point sensors which can be difficult to interpret across slope scale. This paper presents challenges to producing such a system and research being carried out to address some of these using electrical resistance tomography (ERT). Experimental results show that whilst it is possible to measure soil water content indirectly via resistivity the relationship between resistivity and water content will change over time for a given slope. If geotechnical parameters such as pore water pressure are to be estimated using this method then ERT systems will require integrating with more conventional geotechnical instrumentation to ensure correct representative information is provided. The paper also presents examples of how such data can be processed and communicated to asset owners for the purposes of asset management

Four-dimensional imaging of moisture dynamics during landslide reactivation

Landslides pose significant risks to communities and infrastructure, and mitigating these risks relies on understanding landslide causes and triggering processes. It has been shown that geophysical surveys can significantly contribute to the characterization of unstable slopes. However, hydrological processes can be temporally and spatially heterogeneous, requiring their related properties to be monitored over time. Geoelectrical monitoring can provide temporal and volumetric distributions of electrical resistivity, which are directly related to moisture content. To date, studies demonstrating this capability have been restricted to 2-D sections, which are insufficient to capture the full degree of spatial heterogeneity. This study is the first to employ 4-D (i.e., 3-D time lapse) resistivity imaging on an active landslide, providing long-term data (3 years) highlighting the evolution of moisture content prior to landslide reactivation and showing its decline post reactivation. Crucially, the time-lapse inversion methodology employed here incorporates movements of the electrodes on the unstable surface. Although seasonal characteristics dominate the shallow moisture dynamics during the first 2 years with surficial drying in summer and wetting in winter, in the months preceding reactivation, moisture content increased by more than 45% throughout the slope. This is in agreement with independent data showing a significant rise in piezometric heads and shallow soil moisture contents as a result of prolonged and intense rainfall. Based on these results, remediation measures could be designed and early-warning systems implemented. Thus, resistivity monitoring that can allow for moving electrodes provides a new means for the effective mitigation of landslide risk

Assessment of ground-based monitoring techniques applied to landslide investigations

A landslide complex in the Whitby Mudstone Formation at Hollin Hill, North Yorkshire, UK is periodically re-activated in response to rainfall-induced pore-water pressure fluctuations. This paper compares long-term measurements (i.e., 2009 – 2014) obtained from a combination of monitoring techniques that have been employed together for the first time on an active landslide. The results highlight the relative performance of the different techniques, and can provide guidance for researchers and practitioners for selecting and installing appropriate monitoring techniques to assess unstable slopes. Particular attention is given to the spatial and temporal resolution offered by the different approaches that include: Real Time Kinematic-GPS (RTK-GPS) monitoring of a ground surface marker array, conventional inclinometers, Shape Acceleration Arrays (SAA), tilt meters, active waveguides with Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring, and piezometers. High spatial resolution information has allowed locating areas of stability and instability across a large slope. This has enabled identification of areas where further monitoring efforts should be focused. High temporal resolution information allowed the capture of S’-shaped slope displacement-time behaviour (i.e. phases of slope acceleration, deceleration and stability) in response to elevations in pore-water pressures. This study shows that a well-balanced suite of monitoring techniques that provides high temporal and spatial resolution on both measurement and slope scale is necessary to fully understand failure and movement mechanisms of slopes. In the case of the Hollin Hill landslide it enabled detailed interpretation of the geomorphological processes governing landslide activity. It highlights the benefit of regularly surveying a network of GPS markers to determine areas for installation of movement monitoring techniques that offer higher resolution both temporally and spatially. The small sensitivity of tilt meter measurements to translational movements limited the ability to record characteristic ‘S’-shaped landslide movements at Hollin Hill, which were identified using SAA and AE measurements. This high sensitivity to landslide movements indicates the applicability of SAA and AE monitoring to be used in early warning systems, through detecting and quantifying accelerations of slope movement

Freshwater lens assessment of Karst Island water resources: towards an inter-disciplinary protocol

This record includes an extended abstract and MP4 presentation. Presented at the 42nd WEDC International Conference.<br