The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates

In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future rises in productivity cannot be excluded on the basis of either our own analysis or the literature as a whole. Consequently, inflation pressure and real exchange rate appreciation in the accession countries probably remain a fact of life in the near future. The extent to which this is a problem for a fixed nominal exchange rate regime is hard to determine. Price dynamics in the accession countries are still quite flexible to accommodate substantial real exchange rate movements even when the nominal exchange rate is rather fixed; moreover, that price adjustment is mostly an internal process for the accession countries. Overall we conclude that a fixed exchange rate regime for each of the accession countries would be feasible in itself, despite possible future real exchange rate appreciations due to either the Balassa-Samuelson effect or demand shifts. We find current misalignments to be small, robust and generally in line with the literature. This implies current exchange rate levels provide a reasonable indication of the level at which a parity exchange rate could be set.international economics and trade ;

The effect of neighbourhood crime and deprivation on pregnancy outcomes. A quasi-experimental study using routine administrative records

Introduction We know that rates of adverse pregnancy outcome such as low birthweight and preterm births vary both by socio-economic status and across geographical areas. Furthermore, more deprived neighbourhoods show higher rates of adverse outcomes. However, much of the evidence comes from cross-sectional observational studies where causality is difficult to assess. Objectives and Approach Neighbourhood crime and a resultant increase in maternal stress is a plausible explanation for the deprivation-birth outcome relationship. Without an experiment, isolating this pathway from other confounding effects is challenging. Because many mothers (within the Scottish maternity dataset) experience multiple pregnancies and varying exposure for the same person, we can assume a quasi-experimental allocation to exposure. We model associations as both within mother (comparing exposures between pregnancies to the same mother) and between mother (comparing different people between more and less deprived areas) partitioning the variation and effects accordingly. Results We find that both composite neighbourhood deprivation and neighbourhood crime specifically is associated with reduced birthweight. However, the composite neighbourhood deprivation measure is only significant when modelled as a between mother effect. Neighbourhood crime on the other hand is significantly associated with both between mother and within mother effects (though the latter is reduced compared to the former). These results suggest that much of the observed relationship with deprivation in general is therefore confounded by factors associated with the composition of individuals in these areas rather than an area deprivation effect per se. In contrast, the association with neighbourhood crime can be considered in isolation from the composition of individuals and is therefore likely to be an independent “area” effect. Conclusion/Implications These results are important because outcomes of pregnancy including birthweight and premature births influence health and social outcomes not just in infancy but across the life course. This study suggests policies targeting neighbourhood crime may help to reduce neighbourhood disparities in pregnancy outcomes and therefore health inequalities in general

Does cycle commuting reduce the risk of mental ill-health? An instrumental variable analysis using distance to nearest cycle path

BackgroundPrevious studies have linked cycling with improved mental wellbeing but these studies tend to use cross-sectional survey data that have small sample sizes and self-reported health measures, and are potentially susceptible to omitted-variable bias and reverse causation. We use an instrumental variable approach and an objective measure of mental ill-health taken from linked administrative data to ask: ‘Does cycle commuting reduce the risk of mental ill-health?’MethodsOur study links data on commuting in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the Scottish population census with mental health prescriptions from the National Health Service Prescribing Information System records. We use road distance from home to nearest cycle path as an instrumental variable for cycle commuting.ResultsIn total, 378 253 people aged 16–74 years living and working in the City of Edinburgh and Glasgow City council areas at the 2011 census were included in our study; 1.85% of commuters in Glasgow and 4.8% of commuters in Edinburgh cycled to work. Amongst cyclists, 9% had a prescription for mental health compared with 14% amongst non-cyclists. Using a bivariate probit model, we estimate a mean average reduction in prescriptions for antidepressants and/or anxiolytics in the 5 years following the census of –15.1% (95% CI: –15.3% to –15.0%) amongst cycle commuters compared with those who use any other mode to commute.ConclusionsThis work suggests that cycle commuting is causally related to reduced mental ill-health and provides further evidence in support of the promotion of active travel to encourage commuters travelling shorter distances to shift to cycle commutes

Near Fatal and Fatal Asthma and Air Pollution – are we missing an opportunity to ask key questions?

There is an increasing body of evidence supporting the link between asthma attacks and air pollution in children. To our knowledge, there has only been one reported case of a fatal asthma attack in a child associated with air pollution and this was in the UK. This article considers why there is a lack of evidence on fatal/near-fatal asthma and air pollution. We also explore three challenges. First, fatal and near-fatal asthma events are rare and not yet well understood. Second, measuring and interpreting personal exposure to air pollution with sufficient temporal and spatial detail are challenging to interpret in the context of individual fatal or near-fatal asthma attacks. Third, current studies are not designed to answer the question of whether or to what extent air pollution is associated with fatal/near-fatal asthma attacks in children. Conclusive evidence is not yet available and systems of data collection for both air pollution and fatal and near-fatal asthma attacks should be enhanced to ensure risk can be determined and impact minimised

A systematic review of associations between maternal exposures during pregnancy other than smoking and antenatal fetal measurements

Acknowledgements The authors thank Dr Juleen Lam for her advice on the use of the Navigation guide and for her helpful comments on a draft of the submitted manuscript. Funding This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Peer reviewedPostprin

Grüner Wasserstoff in der Industrie : kurzfristige Einsatzpotentiale und langfristige Bedarfe in Deutschland

Die Forschung der FVEE-Institute zum Einsatz von klimaneutral erzeugtem Wasserstoff in der Industrie deckt sowohl technische Aspekte für einzelne Prozesse ab als auch systemanalytische Betrachtungen, die die Einsatzmöglichkeiten von Wasserstoff am einzelnen Standort oder für bestimmte Branchen in Deutschland bzw. Europa untersuchen. Die Motivation zum Einsatz von Wasserstoff ergibt sich aus drei Gründen: 1. In der stofflichen Verwendung wird Wasserstoff als Molekül benötigt und kann deshalb auch nicht durch andere Energieträger substituiert werden. So wird Wasserstoff bereits heute in großen Mengen in der Ammoniaksynthese (Haber-Bosch-Verfahren) sowie in den Raffinerien benötigt. 2. Eine weitere Verwendungsart für Wasserstoff ergibt sich aus seiner Fähigkeit, Sauerstoff aus Eisenerz chemisch zu binden. Beim Einsatz in Direktreduktionsanlagen kann Wasserstoff als Reduktionsmittel eingesetzt werden, um Eisenerz zu Roheisen zu reduzieren. 3. Als dritte Option gerät die energetische Verwendung von Wasserstoff in der Industrie zunehmend in den Fokus der energiepolitischen Debatten. Hier steht Wasserstoff in einem klimaneutralen System direkt in Konkurrenz zu anderen Energieträgern wie Strom und Biomasse