Trajectories of eGFR and risk of albuminuria in youth with type 2 diabetes: results from the TODAY cohort study

BACKGROUND: We conducted exploratory analyses to identify distinct trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and their relationship with hyperfiltration, subsequent rapid eGFR decline, and albuminuria in participants with youth-onset type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Treatment Options for type 2 Diabetes in Adolescents and Youth (TODAY) study. METHODS: Annual serum creatinine, cystatin C, urine albumin, and creatinine measurements were obtained from 377 participants followed for ≥ 10 years. Albuminuria and eGFR were calculated. Hyperfiltration peak is the greatest eGFR inflection point during follow-up. Latent class modeling was applied to identify distinct eGFR trajectories. RESULTS: At baseline, participants\u27 mean age was 14 years, type 2 diabetes duration was 6 months, mean HbA1c was 6%, and mean eGFR was 120 ml/min/1.73 m. Five eGFR trajectories associated with different rates of albuminuria were identified, including a progressive increasing eGFR group (10%), three stable eGFR groups with varying starting mean eGFR, and an eGFR steady decline group (1%). Participants who exhibited the greatest peak eGFR also had the highest levels of elevated albuminuria at year 10. This group membership was characterized by a greater proportion of female and Hispanic participants. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct eGFR trajectories that associate with albuminuria risk were identified, with the eGFR trajectory characterized by increasing eGFR over time associating with the highest level of albuminuria. These descriptive data support the current recommendations to estimate GFR annually in young persons with type 2 diabetes and provide insight into eGFR-related factors which may contribute to predictive risk strategies for kidney disease therapies in youth with type 2 diabetes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00081328, date registered 2002. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information