Electricity and combined heat and power from municipal solid waste : theoretically optimal investment decision time and emissions trading implications

Waste management has become a great social concern for modern societies. Landfill emissions have been identified among the major contributors of global warming and climate changes with significant impact in national economies. The energy industry constitutes an additional greenhouse gas emitter, while at the same time it is characterized by significant costs and uncertain fuel prices. The above implications have triggered different policies and measures worldwide to address the management of municipal solid wastes on the one hand and the impacts from energy production on the other. Emerging methods of energy recovery from waste may address both concerns simultaneously. In this work a comparative study of co-generation investments based on municipal solid waste is presented, focusing on the evolution of their economical performance over time. A real-options algorithm has been adopted investigating different options of energy recovery from waste: incineration, gasification and landfill biogas exploitation. The financial contributors are identified and the impact of greenhouse gas trading is analysed in terms of financial yields, considering landfilling as the baseline scenario. The results indicate an advantage of combined heat and power over solely electricity production. Gasification, has failed in some European installations. Incineration on the other hand, proves to be more attractive than the competing alternatives, mainly due to its higher power production efficiency, lower investment costs and lower emission rates. Although these characteristics may not drastically change over time, either immediate or irreversible investment decisions might be reconsidered under the current selling prices of heat, power and CO2 allowances

Time-dependent opportunities in energy business : a comparative study of locally available renewable and conventional fuels

This work investigates and compares energy-related, private business strategies, potentially interesting for investors willing to exploit either local biomass sources or strategic conventional fuels. Two distinct fuels and related power-production technologies are compared as a case study, in terms of economic efficiency: the biomass of cotton stalks and the natural gas. The carbon capture and storage option are also investigated for power plants based on both fuel types. The model used in this study investigates important economic aspects using a "real options" method instead of traditional Discounted Cash Flow techniques, as it might handle in a more effective way the problems arising from the stochastic nature of significant cash flow contributors' evolution like electricity, fuel and CO(2) allowance prices. The capital costs have also a functional relationship with time, thus providing an additional reason for implementing, "real options" as well as the learning-curves technique. The methodology as well as the results presented in this work, may lead to interesting conclusions and affect potential private investment strategies and future decision making. This study indicates that both technologies lead to positive investment yields, with the natural gas being more profitable for the case study examined, while the carbon capture and storage does not seem to be cost efficient with the current CO(2) allowance prices. Furthermore, low interest rates might encourage potential investors to wait before actualising their business plans while higher interest rates favor immediate investment decisions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Optimisation of electricity energy markets and assessment of CO2 trading on their structure : a stochastic analysis of the greek power sector

Power production was traditionally dominated by monopolies. After a long period of research and organisational advances in international level, electricity markets have been deregulated allowing customers to choose their provider and new producers to compete the former Public Power Companies. Vast changes have been made in the European legal framework but still, the experience gathered is not sufficient to derive safe conclusions regarding the efficiency and reliability of deregulation. Furthermore, emissions' trading progressively becomes a reality in many respects, compliance with Kyoto protocol's targets is a necessity, and stability of the national grid's operation is a constraint of vital importance. Consequently, the production of electricity should not rely solely in conventional energy sources neither in renewable ones but on a mixed structure. Finding this optimal mix is the primary objective of the study. A computational tool has been created, that simulates and optimises the future electricity generation structure based on existing as well as on emerging technologies. The results focus on the Greek Power Sector and indicate a gradual decreasing of anticipated CO2 emissions while the socioeconomic constraints and reliability requirements of the system are met. Policy interventions are pointed out based on the numerical results of the model. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Logistics issues of biomass : the storage problem and the multi-biomass supply chain

Biomass is a renewable energy source with increasing importance. The larger fraction of cost in biomass energy generation originates from the logistics operations. A major issue concerning biomass logistics is its storage, especially when it is characterized by seasonal availability. The biomass energy exploitation literature has rarely investigated the issue of biomass storage. Rather, researchers usually choose arbitrarily the lowest cost storage method available, ignoring the effects this choice may have on the total system efficiency. In this work, the three most frequently used biomass storage methods are analyzed and are applied to a case study to come up with tangible comparative results. Furthermore, the issue of combining multiple biomass supply chains, aiming at reducing the storage space requirements, is introduced. An application of this innovative concept is also performed for the case study examined. The most important results of the case study are that the lowest cost storage method indeed constitutes the system-wide most efficient solution, and that the multi-biomass approach is more advantageous when combined with relatively expensive storage methods. However, low cost biomass storage methods bear increased health, safety and technological risks that should always be taken into account. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty

The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations. The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, to determine the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the system constraints and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more cost-effective than conventional fuel electricity generation. The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Optimisation and investment analysis of two biomass-to-heat supply chain structures

As oil prices have risen dramatically lately, many people explore alternative ways of heating their residences and businesses in order to reduce the respective cost. One of the options usually considered nowadays is biomass, especially in rural areas with significant local biomass availability. This work focuses on comparing two different biomass energy exploitation systems, aiming to provide heat to a specific number of customers at a specific cost. The first system explored is producing pellets from biomass and distributing them to the final customers for use in domestic pellet boilers. The second option is building a centralised co-generation (CHP) unit that will generate electricity and heat. Electricity will be fed to the grid, whereas heat will be distributed to the customers via a district heating network. The biomass source examined is agricultural residues and the model is applied to a case study region in Greece. The analysis is performed from the viewpoint of the potential investor. Several design characteristics of both systems are optimised. In both cases the whole biomass-to-energy supply chain is modelled, both upstream and downstream of the pelleting/CHP units. The results of the case study show that both options have positive financial yield, with the pelleting plant having higher yield. However, the sensitivity analysis reveals that the pelleting plant yield is much more sensitive than that of the CHP plant, therefore constituting a riskier investment. The model presented may be used as a decision support system for potential investors willing to engage in the biomass energy field

Flow Cytometry as a Diagnostic Tool in the Early Diagnosis of Aggressive Lymphomas Mimicking Life-Threatening Infection

Aggressive lymphomas can present with symptoms mimicking life-threatening infection. Flow cytometry (FC) is usually recommended for the classification and staging of lymphomas in patients with organomegaly and atypical cells in effusions and blood, after the exclusion of other possible diagnoses. FC may also have a place in the initial diagnostic investigation of aggressive lymphoma. Three cases are presented here of highly aggressive lymphomas in young adults, which presented with the clinical picture of fever of unknown origin (FUO) in patients severely ill. All followed a life-threatening clinical course, and two developed the hemophagocytic syndrome (HPS), but microbiological, immunological, and morphological evaluation and immunohistochemistry (IHC) failed to substantiate an early diagnosis. FC was the technique that provided conclusive diagnostic evidence of lymphoma, subsequently verified by IHC. Our experience with these three cases highlights the potential role of FC as an adjunct methodology in the initial assessment of possible highly aggressive lymphoma presenting with the signs and symptoms of life-threatening infection, although the definitive diagnosis should be established by biopsy. In such cases, FC can contribute to the diagnosis of lymphoma, independently of the presence of HPS

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions reduction and allowances’ trading revenue for biomass tri-generation applications

Biomass tri-generation constitutes an innovative renewable energy application. An approved UNFCCC baseline methodology has been extended in this paper to examine a biomass tri-generation application. Some environmental and financial aspects of this type of applications were investigated through a case study. It has been shown that tri-generation may result in significant emissions reduction, compared to using conventional energy sources or even biomass co-generation. The emissions reduction achieved may be materialized into a considerable revenue stream for the project, if traded through EU ETS. However, the high volatility of the tCO2e value and the EU Trading Scheme being still in its infancy prevent a reliable estimation of the related revenue. For this reason, a sensitivity analysis has been performed. The work concludes that greenhouse gas emissions trading may develop into one of the major revenue streams of biomass tri-generation projects, significantly increasing their financial yield and attractivenes

Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty

The electricity markets have undergone significant changes during the last years. On the one hand, the market deregulation has increased significantly the uncertainty on future electricity prices. On the other hand, the Kyoto protocol and the establishment of emission restrictions, as well as the development of emission trading systems has added another expense stream for conventional fuel electricity producers and a potential income stream for renewable electricity producers. The emission allowance prices are another source of uncertainty for electricity producers. The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the orders for new electricity generation technologies and therefore, on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations. The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, in order to come up with the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the national emissions reduction targets and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more profitable than conventional fuel electricity generation. The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors

Optimizing waste management system design for energy recovery

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal has been a controversial issue in many countries over the past years. Issues such as the increasing public opposition in creating new landfills, stricter environmental regulations, as well as a change in the European Union directives for MSW management, have complicated further the decision of locating a MSW disposal facility. One of the ways of treating/disposing MSW is energy recovery, as waste is considered to contain a considerable amount of bio-waste, therefore being able to lead to renewable energy production. Especially if co-generation or tri-generation is performed, the overall efficiency can be very high. In this paper, a model is presented, aiming to support decision makers on issues relating to Municipal Solid Waste energy recovery. The idea of using more fuel sources, including MSW and agricultural residue biomass types that may exist in a rural area is explored. The model aims at optimising the system specifications, such as the capacity of the Waste-to-Energy co-generation facility, the capacity of the peak-load biomass boiler and the location of the energy conversion facility. Furthermore, it defines the quantities from each potential fuel source that should be used annually, in order to maximise the financial yields of the investment in the energy conversion facility. The results of a case study application at a rural area of Greece are presented, for energy tri-generation from mixed MSW and biomass fuel. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the effect of the most important parameters of the model on the optimum solution