How Important is Exports and FDI for China\u27s Economic Growth?

経済学 / EconomicsThe Global Financial Crisis and the recent slowdown of China\u27s growth have led to questions about the sustainability of China\u27s growth. The argument is that, China is too dependent on external demand and that it needs to "rebalance" its economy toward domestic consumption. However, conventional measures of external: net exports-over-GDP and exports-over-GDP are biased and do not accurately measure the contribution of external demand to GDP growth. In this paper, we propose two measures that are simple modifications of the conventional measures. We argue that our proposed measures provide a more accurate estimate of the vulnerability of China\u27s economy to external shocks, in the form of exports and FDI. Our estimates show that in 2001, exports and FDI accounted for 18.2% of GDP growth and by 2004 the share rose to 49 percent. During 2005-2007, the contribution of exports and FDI to growth remained in the range of 38-40 percent. Our estimates also show that the impressive recovery of the Chinese economy in the post-crisis period owed at least 53% of its growth to exports and FDI. Based on these results, we conclude that the Chinese economy remains highly dependent on external demand in the form of exports and FDI, and re-balancing the economy towards domestic demand has not been achieved yet.JEL Classification Codes: F43, E01http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/xing_yuqing

Two-Phased Intra-Cluster Medium in the Centaurus Cluster of Galaxies

ASCA and ROSAT data of the Centaurus cluster were analyzed. A central excess in the radial brightness profile is found in the hard energy band up to 10keV. This requires a deeper central potential than a King-type one. A double-beta brightness distribution gives a good account of the data. A deprojected energy spectrum within a spherical region of radius 30 kpc at the cluster center indicates that the ICM cannot be isothermal there. Simultaneous fitting of the three (PSPC, GIS, and SIS) energy spectra extracted from the central 3' region showed that a two-temperature model that has temperatures of 1.4keV and 4.4keV and a common metallicity of 1.0 solar with the Galactic absorption gives the best description to the spectra. A cooling-flow spectral model did not give satisfactory fit. A 3-dimensional cluster model incorporating the two-phase picture, the double-beta brightness distribution, and the central metallicity increase reproduced the overall ASCA and ROSAT data successfully. The derived spatial distribution of the dark matter deviates from a King-type profile exhibiting a central excess, which is consistent with the Navvaro-Frenk-White model. The iron is revealed to be more widely spread than stars, which may have been caused by energetic supernovae and the motion of the cD galaxy. Since the derived characteristics of the cool phase including the temperature, angular extent, gas mass, and metallicity, are on a smooth extension of those of inter-stellar medium (ISM) of elliptical galaxies, the cool phase can be regarded as the ISM associated with the cD galaxy. The cool-phase X-ray emission is presumably sustained by energies dissipated by infalling mass to the cD galaxy in the course of cluster evolution.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap