The Impact of The European Enlargement and CAP Reforms on Agricultural Markets. Much Ado about Nothing?

We analyze the effects of the 2004 CAP reform and EU enlargement on European and world agricultural markets. We compare the results from a CAP reform only and a CAP reform plus enlargement scenarios to a no-enlargement baseline implementing Agenda 2000 CAP policies. We utilize the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's policy analysis model to simulate the effects of CAP reform and EU enlargement on production, consumption, and trade for the EU, its New Member States (NMS), and major players in world agricultural markets. The model is a partial-equilibrium model of world agricultural markets including important producer and consumer countries in world livestock and products, dairy, grains, oilseeds and products, cotton and sugar markets. Each country's commodity sectors are modeled with structural equations which incorporate all important policy parameters. With prices in most commodities in the NMS historically below EU-15 prices accession leads to substantial price increases for many commodities in the NMS. Higher prices stimulate production and dampen consumption in the NMS, and trade between the new members and the EU-15 increases. Prices in the EU-15 decrease moderately. The impact of the two reforms on world markets is negligible. The CAP reforms have their greatest impact in the EU-15 markets for meats, rice, rapeseed, and dairy products. CAP reforms without enlargement generate a small increase in world and EU commodity prices.CAP, trade reform, policy reform, enlargement, new member states, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, F1, Q17, Q18,

U.S. Proposal for WTO Agriculture Negotiations: Its Impact on U.S. And World Agriculture

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) analyzed the latest U.S. proposal to the Doha round of WTO negotiations (see Appendix 1, U.S. Proposal for WTO Agriculture Negotiations, USTR, October 10, 2005). While the U.S. proposal provides many concrete steps to reduce farm support and trade distortions, it does not provide all necessary information for quantitative analysis of the proposal. FAPRI, through consultations with economists and staffers of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, Office of the United States Trade Representative, and U.S. Department of Agriculture, elaborated a complementary set of policy assumptions to carry the quantitative analysis. The analysis is conducted in deviation from the baseline of the FAPRI 2005 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook. New policies put in place since the 2005 baseline was established have been accommodated to separate the impact of the policy scenario from the full set of policy assumptions.

FAPRI 2005 World Agricultural Outlook Briefing Book

none available

Assessment framework and operational definitions for long-term scenarios

To navigate among the long term challenges for global and national food security, policy makers cannot only rely on qualitative analysis. They also need quantitative tools to measure and rank the different issues that they will face and the policy responses that can be designed. FOODSECURE proposes state-of-the art simulation models that will give both researchers and policy makers the capacity to study these issues in a comprehensive framework. This paper is aimed at providing an overview of the different modeling solutions proposed in the FOODSECURE toolbox and defines a strategy for using the different models in a consistent manner. First, the different models are briefly described and compared. Next, we see how these models tackle key food security indicators and drivers and translate different assumptions about the future within their framework. We then discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models to address different policy questions. Finally, we discuss how to combine these models and which optimal level of model integration should be used for analysis

FAPRI 2004 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in the coming decade, above 3% per annum. Other major drivers of the 2006 baseline include new bio-energy policies in several large countries, EU sugar policy reform, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) shocks in livestock and poultry markets, and movements in the exchange rate.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2005 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Efficacy of AZM therapy in patients with gingival overgrowth induced by Cyclosporine A: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In daily clinical practice of a dental department it's common to find gingival overgrowth (GO) in periodontal patients under treatment with Cyclosporine A (CsA). The pathogenesis of GO and the mechanism of action of Azithromycin (AZM) are unclear. A systematic review was conducted in order to evaluate the efficacy of Azithromycin in patients with gingival overgrowth induced by assumption of Cyclosporine A.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A bibliographic search was performed using the online databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central of Register Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the time period between 1966 and September 2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The literature search retrieved 24 articles; only 5 were Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs), published in English, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. A great heterogeneity between proposed treatments and outcomes was found, and this did not allow to conduct a quantitative meta-analysis. The systematic review revealed that a 5-day course of Azithromycin with Scaling and Root Planing reduces the degree of gingival overgrowth, while a 7-day course of metronidazole is only effective on concomitant bacterial over-infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Few RCTs on the efficacy of systemic antibiotic therapy in case of GO were found in the literature review. A systemic antibiotic therapy without plaque and calculus removal is not able to reduce gingival overgrowth. The great heterogeneity of diagnostic data and outcomes is due to the lack of precise diagnostic methods and protocols about GO. Future studies need to improve both diagnostic methods and tools and adequate classification aimed to determine a correct prognosis and an appropriate therapy for gingival overgrowth.</p

Diagnostic accuracy of a clinical diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: An international case-cohort study

We conducted an international study of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) diagnosis among a large group of physicians and compared their diagnostic performance to a panel of IPF experts. A total of 1141 respiratory physicians and 34 IPF experts participated. Participants evaluated 60 cases of interstitial lung disease (ILD) without interdisciplinary consultation. Diagnostic agreement was measured using the weighted kappa coefficient (\u3baw). Prognostic discrimination between IPF and other ILDs was used to validate diagnostic accuracy for first-choice diagnoses of IPF and were compared using the Cindex. A total of 404 physicians completed the study. Agreement for IPF diagnosis was higher among expert physicians (\u3baw=0.65, IQR 0.53-0.72, p20 years of experience (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.0-0.73, p=0.229) and non-university hospital physicians with more than 20 years of experience, attending weekly MDT meetings (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.70-0.72, p=0.052), did not differ significantly (p=0.229 and p=0.052 respectively) from the expert panel (C-index=0.74 IQR 0.72-0.75). Experienced respiratory physicians at university-based institutions diagnose IPF with similar prognostic accuracy to IPF experts. Regular MDT meeting attendance improves the prognostic accuracy of experienced non-university practitioners to levels achieved by IPF experts