Economic Crises, Stabilisation Policy and Output in Emerging Market Economies

The recent macroeconomic history of emerging market economies is coloured with economic crises of all kinds, ranging from debt-crises, through hyperinflationary periods to currency crises to name but a few. Much of the empirical literature notes that alongside fast-paced structural change this has resulted in volatile business cycles and a difficult environment for stabilisation policy. Both short- and long-run output dynamics are shaped by the multidimensional exposure of EMEs to economic shocks. The paper uses an SVAR analysis and finds that in spite of high degrees of output volatility, the conduct of stabilisation policy has sometimes been successful in dampening short-run output fluctuations. However, even when stabilisation has been successful, the effect on overall output volatility has been negligible when compared to supply-side shocks. The results show that economic crises are associated with large negative supply shocks which are only counteracted by stabilisation policy to a very small extent. These crisis-related supply shocks, in turn, have large negative effects on potential GDP growth, which are only reversible when positive supply shocks regain lost ground. Given the institutional origin of the economic crises, the paper suggests that for stabilisation policy to become more effective in lowering output volatility and maintaining long-term growth potential, it must be supported by appropriate supply-side measures which insulate EMEs against large negative supply shocks and help them to recover in the wake of economic crises.Economic crises, Stabilisation policy, Emerging Market Economies, Business Cycles, Potential output

Optimal HP filtering for South Africa

Among the various methods used to identify the business cycle from aggregate data, the Hodrick-Prescott filter has become an industry standard – it ‘identifies’ the business cycle by removing low-frequency information, thereby smoothing the data. Since the filter’s inception in 1980, the value of the smoothing constant for quarterly data has been set at a ‘default’ of 1600, following the suggestion of Hodrick and Prescott (1980). This paper argues that this ‘default value’ is inappropriate due to its ad hoc nature and problematic underlying assumptions. Instead this paper uses the method of optimal filtering, developed by Pedersen (1998, 2001, and 2002), to determine the optimal value of the smoothing constant for South Africa. The optimal smoothing constant is that value which least distorts the frequency information of the time series. The result depends on both the censoring rule for the duration of the business cycles and the structure of the economy. The paper raises a number of important issues concerning the practical use of the HP filter, and provides an easily replicable method in the form of MATLAB code.Hodrick-Prescott filter, Spectral analysis, Ideal filtering, Optimal filtering, Distortionary filtering, Business cycles, MATLAB

Integration of the EPDiff equation by particle methods

The purpose of this paper is to apply particle methods to the numerical solution of the EPDiff equation. The weak solutions of EPDiff are contact discontinuities that carry momentum so that wavefront interactions represent collisions in which momentum is exchanged. This behavior allows for the description of many rich physical applications, but also introduces difficult numerical challenges. We present a particle method for the EPDiff equation that is well-suited for this class of solutions and for simulating collisions between wavefronts. Discretization by means of the particle method is shown to preserve the basic Hamiltonian, the weak and variational structure of the original problem, and to respect the conservation laws associated with symmetry under the Euclidean group. Numerical results illustrate that the particle method has superior features in both one and two dimensions, and can also be effectively implemented when the initial data of interest lies on a submanifold

The sources of comparative advantage in tourism

Tourism flows are usually explained through demand-side factors such as income growth in developed economies and changes in the preferences of visitors. While these models are adequate for short-term forecasts, little theoretical justification is provided to explain why certain countries perform better than others. This paper identifies which countries have a comparative advantage in the export of travel services (tourism). Consequently, the paper seeks to identify the sources of this comparative advantage. We include the standard explanatory variables (factors of production, including natural environment) for Ricardian comparative advantage, plus measures of infrastructure, health, safety and security, tourism prioritization, and various dummy variables. We also develop and test new variables, including a neighbourhood variable, which measures the benefits obtained from regional tourism clusters. Our results have important policy implications; it is clear that the natural environment has a large positive and significant impact on a country’s revealed comparative advantage, as do transport endowments (a measure of relative accessibility) and the neighbourhood variable. These findings correspond to the predictions of the neoclassical trade theories (namely Heckscher-Ohlin) and to some extent the new trade theories (Krugman).tourism, comparative advantage, trade in services

Factors influencing the long-term competitiveness of commercial milk producers: evidence from panel data in East Griqualand, South Africa

This study investigates factors influencing the long-term competitiveness of 11 commercial milk producers from East Griqualand (EG), South Africa using unbalanced panel data for the period 1990 to 2006. Results of a ridge regression analysis show that dairy herd size, the level of farm debt, annual production per cow, technology and policy changes over time, and the ratio of trading income to total milk income influence the long-term competitiveness of these milk producers. To enhance their competitiveness in a deregulated dairy market, relatively small and profitable EG milk producers should consider increasing their herd sizes, as the importance of herd size in explaining competitiveness suggests that size economies exist. All EG milk producers should consider utilising more pasture- and forage-based production systems to lower feed costs and select dairy cattle of superior genetic merit to improve milk yields on pasture.Commercial milk production, competitiveness, panel data, Production Economics,

The Conservation Business

Direct payments to local communities to conserve wildlife could prove effective but is biodiversity a commodity that can be bought and sold

Social Ingredients and Conditional Convergence in the Study of Sectoral Growth

In this research article, we investigate the improved modelling ability and the outstanding policy advocacy of infusing health and education in sectoral growth equations of the South African economy. Our findings not only include improved and dependable modelling results but also provide distinct estimates of the returns on investment in health and education per sector using Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions techniques. Additionally, this paper provides a theoretical description of the productivity effects of HIV/AIDS using sectoral equations. Also, this research investigates the diffusion process in the technological progress at the South African sectoral level and its impact on the study of social ingredients. Using a fixed effects model, some features of the diffusion process are explained.Coefficient of effectiveness, Diffusion process, Fixed effects model, Seemingly Unrelated Regressions