Prosperity and Stagnation in Capitalist Economies

The KMG growth dynamics in Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) assume that wages, prices and quantities adjust sluggishly to disequilibria in labor and goods markets. This paper modifies the KMG model by introducing Steindlian features of capital accumulation and income distribution. The resulting KMGS(teindl) model replaces the neoclassical medium- and long-run features of the originalKMG model by a Steindlian approach to capital accumulation, as developed in a paper by Flaschel and Skott (2005). The model is of dimension 4 or 5, depending on the specification of the labor supply. We prove stability assertions and show that loss of stability always occurs by way of Hopf-bifurcations. When global stability gets lost, a nonlinear form of the Steindlian reserve army mechanism can ensure bounded dynamics. These dynamics are studied numerically and shown to exhibit long phases of prosperity, but also long phases of stagnant growth. JEL Categories: E24, E31, E32.KMGS dynamics, accelerating growth, stagnant growth, normal / adverse income shares adjustment, reserve army mechanisms.

Price Flexibility and Instability in a Macrodynamic Model with a Debt Effect

In this paper, we investigate the impact of price flexibility on macroeconomic instability using as our analytical framework a macrodynamic model with a Fisher debt effect. We introduce the expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the adaptive expectations hypothesis into a macrodynamic model with a Fisher debt effect, as developed by Asada (2001). We demonstrate analytically that both of the increase of the speed of price adjustments and the increase of the speed of expectations adaptation contribute to destabilizing rather than stabilizing the economy, and we also show that at the intermediate ranges of the parameter values, cyclical fluctuations occur by means of the Hopf bifurcation theorem. We also present some numerical examples which support our analytical results

Interacting Two-Country Business Fluctuations

In this paper we investigate the closed-economy Keynes-Wicksell-Goodwin model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) for the case of two interacting open economies. We introduce these coupled two-country KWG dynamics on the extensive form level by means of a subdivision into nine modules describing the behavioral equations, the laws of motion and the identities or budget equations of the model. We then derive their intensive form representation and the 10 laws of motion of the model on the basis of certain simplifying assumptions. Thereafter we present the uniquely determined steady state solution of the dynamics and discuss in a mathematically informal way its stability properties, concerning asymptotic stability and loss of stability by way of super- or subcritical Hopf-bifurcations. In a final section we explore numerically a variety of situations of interacting real and financial cycles, where the steady state is locally repelling, but where the overall dynamics are bounded in an economically meaningful domain by means of a kinked money wage Phillips curve, exhibiting downward rigidity of the money-wage, coupled with upward flexibility of the usual type.Interacting KWG economies, stability, persistent cycles, coupled oscillators.

Growth versus environment in dynamic models of capital accumulation

In this paper, we study the economic implications of the trade off between growth and environment in the context of dynamic models of capital accumulation. The collective solution is formulated in terms of dynamic optimization of the central planner, and the decentralized solution is formulated in terms of differential game between workers and capitalists. We compare the economic properties of two solutions

Sustainable Capitalism: Full-Employment Flexicurity Growth with Real Wage Rigidities

In this paper we present a model of flexicurity capitalism that exhibits a second labor market with the government as an employer of first resort, where all workers not employed by firms in the private sector find meaningful employment. We show that the model exhibits a unique interior steady state which is asymptotically stable under real wage adjustment dynamics of the type considered in Blanchard and Katz (1999), and under a type of Okun's Law that links the level of utilization of firms to their hiring and firing decision. The introduction of a company pension fund can be shown to contribute to the viability of the analyzed economic system. However, when credit is incorporated in the model, in place of savings-driven supply side fluctuations in economic activity, investment-driven demand side business cycle fluctuations (of a probably much more volatile type) can take place.Flexicurity, employer of ¯rst resort, Solovian growth, company pension funds, sustainability

Numerical Exploration of Kaldorian Macrodynamics: Enhanced Stability and Predominance of Period Doubling and Chaos with Flexible Exchange Rates

We explore a discrete Kaldorian macrodynamic model of an open economy with flexible exchange rates, focusing on the effects of variation of the model parameters, the speed of adjustment of the goods market α, and the degree of capital mobility β. We determine by a numerical grid search method the stability region in parameter space and find that flexible rates cause enhanced stability of equilibrium with respect to variations of the parameters. We identify the Hopf-Neimark bifurcation curve and the flip bifurcation curve, and find that the period doubling cascades which leads to chaos is the dominant behavior of the system outside the stability region, persisting to large values of β. Cyclical behavior of noticeable presence is detected for some extreme values of a state parameter. Bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent diagrams are computed illustrating the complex dynamics involved. Examples of attractors and trajectories are presented. The effect of the speed of adaptation of the expected rate is also briefly discussed. Finally, we explore a special model variation incorporating the “wealth effect” which is found to behave similarly to the basic model, contrary to the model of fixed exchange rates in which incorporation of this effect causes an entirely different behavior