Early Information on Active Cases in Zero Rejection Efforts for COVID-19 Patients in West Java Province 2021 Using the Feedforwards Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

West Java noted, as of August 14, 2021, 653,741 people were confirmed positive for COVID-19. On the same date, the number of active COVID-19 cases in West Java was 65,000. There is a significant increase in active cases of COVID-19 in 2021 in West Java. In the period 5 June – 17 July 2021, there was an increase in the number of active cases by 95,532. In that period, active cases increased by 484%, and the Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java had jumped in June 2021 with the highest number of 91.6%, this figure far exceeded the WHO recommendation of 60% before finally continuing to decline and finally in August was at 30.69%. This has an impact on the incidence of patient rejection at the COVID-19 referral hospital. Active cases talk about COVID-19 patients who need medical treatment and new cases talk about the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, so these two things are very strategic to study. In this study, active cases and new case were predicted using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive cases, recovered and died of COVID-19 sufferers in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2 March 2020 - 14 August 2021. The results of the study found, from the results of the evaluation using data testing the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10 – August 14, 2021, MLP is accurate in predicting the number of active cases for the first coming week 17 times, and the next two weeks for the second week 12 times with an absolute percentage error (APE) < 20%. As for weekly new cases, MLP has been accurate 10 times for the next one week and 9 times for the next two weeks. It is hoped that the results of this study can be useful for the government as a reference in conditioning the hospital bed capacity to deal with active cases of COVID-19 in West Java in the next two weeks so that no COVID-19 patients are rejected by the hospital because the hospital is full

Preventive Maintenance Supply Chain Management Optimal Scheduling on VMACL Machines by Implementing Simulation Annealing Algorithms

PT. Braja Mukti Cakra uses various types of engines to produce parts for truck cars. Vertical Lathe Automatic Chucking Machine (VMACL) is a machine that has the highest frequency of damage when compared to other machines. To reduce damage costs, preventive maintenance is well scheduled. This scheduling problem solving is done using the Annealing Simulation Algorithm. The results of the analysis give direction that the scheduling that must be done are: The maintenance action schedule for the Lifter component is at month 1,6,7,22,24,34, for the Insert component at 4,15,18,27,33 months, and for the Door component at the 2nd month, 12,13,16,17,30,36. Replacement actions for the Lifter component were carried out in the 4,5th month, 1,17,20,29, for the Insert component in the 9,19,22,23,35 months, and for the Door component in the 1,20,27 months. . Scheduling for 36 months using the Simulated Annealing Algorithm will cost IDR. 84,119,244.60 and produce greater reliability than the previous reliability of 58.44%

Unraveling educational networks: Data-driven exploration through multivariate regression, geographical clustering, and multidimensional scaling

Enhancing rates of school participation holds significant importance for a nation’s educational achievements. This research employs a comprehensive approach that combines various methodologies, including multivariate regression analysis, geographic categorization, and multidimentional visualization, to examine the factors influencing school enrollment in Indonesia. Through the integration of diverse data sources, we investigate the connections among variables such as economic status, school accessibility, educational quality, and societal considerations concerning enrollment rates. This discrete impact of each factor on enrollment variations is analyzed through multivariate regression. Geospatial clustering analysis reveals enrollment trends in different regions, while multidimensional visualization untangles the intricate interplay of influencing factors. This holistic approach facilitates a nuanced comprehension of these dynamics within Indonesia’s varied geographical and society offering guidance in the formulation of more efficient strategies to improve school attendance, tackle enrollment disparities, and advocate for inclusive education based on fundamental determinants

PERANCANGAN BUKU EASY CRAFTING IDEA UNTUK PEMANFAATAN PENGOLAHAN LIMBAH KAIN PERCA DI TULUNGAGUNG

ABSTRAK   Purwandari, Titi. 2015. PerancanganBukuEasy Crafting IdeaTentangPemanfaatanPengolahanLimbahKainPerca di Tulungagung.Skripsi, JurusanSenidanDesain, FakultasSastra, UniversitasNegeri Malang.Pembimbing: (I) SugiyonoArdjaka, M.Sc. (II) Rudi Irawanto, S.Pd, M.Sn. Kata Kunci: PerancanganBuku, LimbahKainPerca, Tulungagung Kainpercamerupakansalahsatubahansisa yang dapatdimanfaatkanmenjadisuatupeluangusaha.Tulungagungmerupakansalahsatukotadenganindustritekstilterbanyak se-jawatimur, berpotensimenghasilkankainperca yang banyak pula. Bersamadengan program-program DinasPerindustriandanPerdaganganKabupatenTulungagungtentangkepelatihanpengolahankainpercadapatberkembang, tidakhanyasebataskeset, sapu, dan lap dapursaja. Belumadanyabuku tutorial mengenaikainperca di Tulungagung, makatujuanperancanganiniadalahmemberikanwawasandalampengolahankainpercamelaluiperancanganbukuEasy Crafting IdeabagimasyarakatTulungagungkhususnya yang berprofesisebagaipengepulmaupunpengrajinkainperca agar termotivasiuntukmembuatkreasidarikainpercaselainkeset, sapu, dan lap dapur. Model perancangan yang digunakanyaitu model perancanganprosedural, yaitu model yang bersifatdeskriptif, dimanamenggariskanlangkah-langkah yang harusdiikutiuntukmenghasilkansebuahproduk.Model perancanganmerujukpada model perancanganmilikSuriantoRustanyang telahdisesuaikandenganpengumpulan data berupa data pustaka, data yang diambildariinternet, observasi, dokumendanwawancara. Dari hasilanalisis data dapatdisimpulkanbahwadibutuhkannya media untukmemberikaninformasitentangpemanfaatanpengolahanlimbahkainperca.Sehinggadipilihlah media berupabukupanduanberjudulEasy Crafting Idea.Serta dirancangjuga video tutorial sebagai media pelengkapbuku. DirancangnyabukuEasy Crafting Ideaberisi 62 halamaniniakanmembantumemberikaninformasidanwawasantentangberkreasidanberbisniskainpercakarenapadabukudiberikancontoh lima kreasibesertabahandancaramembuatnyasekaligus tips berkreasidanberbisniskainperca.Dimanabukudan video inidapatbermanfaatbagipihakDinasPerindustriandanPerdaganganKabupatenTulungagungmaupununtuk target audience.   ABSTRACT   Purwandari, Titi. 2015. Designing Books Easy Crafting Idea about Processing Utilization of Waste Patchwork in Tulungagung. Thesis, Visual Communication Design, Departement of Art and Design, Faculty of Letters, State University of Malang. Advisors: (I) SugiyonoArdjaka, M.Sc., (II) Rudi Irawanto, S.Pd. M.Sn. Keywords: Design Book, Waste Patchwork, Tulungagung. Patchworkis aresiduethatcanbe utilized asa business opportunity. Tulungagungis one of thecitieswiththe largesttextile industrythroughoutEast Java, potentially resulting in a patchworkthat much anyway. Togetherwith theprograms ofthe Department of Industryand TradeTulungagungabout coaching the processing of patchwork can develop, not only as a doormat, a broom, and wipe the kitchen only. Yet the existence of the book tutorial on patchwork in Tulungagung, then this design goal is to provide insight in the processing of the patchwork design books through Easy Crafting Idea for the community of Tulungagung especially those profession as craftsmen patchwork so motivated to make the patchwork creations from other than a doormat, a broom, and wipe the kitchen. Design modelused isa proceduraldesign model, which isa descriptivemodel, whichoutlinesthe stepsthat must befollowed toproduceaproduct. Modeldesignrefers to thedesign modelownedSuriantoRustanwhich has beenadapted tothe collection ofdata in the formof datalibraries, data takenfrom the website, observation, documentationandinterview. Fromthe data analysisit can be concludedthat theneed forthe mediatoprovideinformationaboutthe utilization ofwaste treatmentpatchwork. So that thechosenmediaformguidebookentitledEasyCraftingIdea.And also video tutorials designed as complementary media books. By designing Books The Easy Crafting Idea will help provide information and insights on creating and selling a patchwork because the book is given examples of five creations with ingredients and how to make it at the same time creative and tips on doing patchwork. Where books and videos can be helpful for the Department of industry and trade as well as in Tulungagung district to target audience

Identifying Unwanted Conditions through Chaotic Area Determination in the Context of Indonesia’s Economic Resilience at the City Level

The purpose of this research is to determine the unwanted condition as a strategic criterion in measuring the economic resilience of a city. A new approach in determining economic resilience was developed to overcome the weaknesses of the index method commonly used internationally. Based on the output of this research, the development priority program for each city becomes distinctive depending on the status of the city’s economic resilience. Quality improvement programs are used for cities that do not have resilience and retention programs for cities that already have economic resilience. Five piecewise linear regression parameters are applied to identify a statistical model between Income per capita and Pc as a concern variable and modifier variable, and a Z. Model is tested massively involving all 514 cities in Indonesia from 2015 to 2019, covering the components of the modifier variable: local revenue (PAD), poverty, unemployment and concern variable; GRDP and population. The value of the Fraction of variance unexplained (FVU) of the model is 40%. This value is obtained using the Rosenbrock Pattern Search estimation method with a maximum number of iterations of 200 and a convergence criterion of 0.0001. The FVU area is a condition of uncertainty and unpredictability, so that people will avoid this area. This condition is chaotic and declared as an unwanted condition. The chaotic area is located in the value of UZ less than IDR 5,097,592 and Pc &lt; Pc (UZ) = 27,816,310.68, and thus the coordinates of the chaotic boundary area is (5,097,592: 27,816,310.68). FVU as a chaotic area is used as the basis for stating whether or not a city falls into unwanted conditions. A city is claimed not to be economically resilient if the modifier variable Z is in a chaotic boundary

Developing New Method in Measuring City Economic Resilience by Imposing Disturbances Factors and Unwanted Condition

Recent research uses an index to measure economic resilience, but the index is inadequate because it is impossible to determine which disturbance factors have the greatest impact on the economic resilience of cities. This study aims to develop a new methodology to measure the economic resilience of a city by simultaneously examining unwanted conditions and disturbance factors. The ratio of regional original income to the number of poor people is known as Z and is identified as a measure of economic resilience in Indonesia. Resilience is measured by Z’s position in relation to the unwanted area following a specific level of disturbance. If Z is in the unwanted condition, the city’s per capita income will decrease, and the city will be considered economically not resilient. The results of the analysis show that six levels of economic resilience have been successfully distinguished based on research on 514 cities in Indonesia involving nine indicators of disturbance and one variable of economic resilience during the five-year observation period, 2015–2019. Only 3.11 percent of cities have economic resilience level 1, while 69.18 percent have level 0. Economically resilient cities consist of 4.24 percent of cities at level 2, as much as 3.39 percent at level 3, as much as 3.39 percent at level 4, and as much as 16.69 percent at level 5. The novelty of this research is to provide a new methodology for measuring the economic resilience of cities by integrating unwanted conditions as necessary conditions and disturbance factors as sufficient conditions. The measurement of a city’s economic resilience is critical to help the city government assess the security of the city so the government can take preventive actions to avoid the cities falling into unwanted conditions

Identifying Unwanted Conditions Using Lower Boundaries on Individual Control Charts in the Context of Supply Chain Economic Resilience of Cities in Indonesia

This study presents the unwanted conditions determination. The economic resilience model without taking into account the level of disruption and unwanted conditions is unrealistic model. The Objective is to determine unwanted conditions as a key criterion in determining the economic resilience status of a city. This study used data on Concern variables group and Control variables groups from website of Central Bureau of Statistics Indonesia. These data covered all 514 cities in Indonesia and are observed for a 5-year period from 2014 to 2018. The data is useful to develop a statistical model that can explain well the pattern of relationships between concern variables and control variables. Piecewise linear regression is applied to identify statistics model between Pc and Z, Lower Control Limit (LCL) for variable Z using Individual control Chart is applied to determine the unwanted conditions.  We obtained that the control variable, Z is the ratio between the original income of the region (PAD) with the number of poor people in a city and the concern variable is income per capita, Pc of a city. Piecewise linear regression with breakpoint 126,255,066 can explain well the pattern of relationships between Z and Pc variables. The equation is: Pc = 26,660,263+0.28Z, R-square = 70.48%. LCL value is.1.884.059.5 so all cities that have a Z value below 1.884.059.5 fall into the unwanted condition area and after careful examination is obtained percentage of cities classified as do not have economic resilience , PER =28%. Cities that fall into unwanted conditions are defined as cities that cannot bear receiving economic shocks

An Estimated Analysis of Willingness to Wait Time to Pay Rice Agricultural Insurance Premiums Using Cox&rsquo;s Proportional Hazards Model

In this paper, we determined the factors that affect the waiting time of rice farmers&rsquo; willingness to pay the premium for the Rice Farming Insurance Program (RFIP) using survival analysis. The survival analysis method was carried out using the Cox proportional hazard model with the Efron approach. The case study in this research is rice farmers in Cibungur Village, Parungponteng District, Tasikmalaya Regency. The results of the analysis show that the predictor variables that are significant to the waiting time of rice farmers&rsquo; willingness to pay the insurance premium for RFIP are their last education, other occupations, rice production, and farming costs. The results of the research are expected to produce additional information for the government and implementers of rice farming insurance regarding the condition of farmers in the field, so that it can be improved in the future

An Estimated Analysis of Willingness to Wait Time to Pay Rice Agricultural Insurance Premiums Using Cox’s Proportional Hazards Model

In this paper, we determined the factors that affect the waiting time of rice farmers’ willingness to pay the premium for the Rice Farming Insurance Program (RFIP) using survival analysis. The survival analysis method was carried out using the Cox proportional hazard model with the Efron approach. The case study in this research is rice farmers in Cibungur Village, Parungponteng District, Tasikmalaya Regency. The results of the analysis show that the predictor variables that are significant to the waiting time of rice farmers’ willingness to pay the insurance premium for RFIP are their last education, other occupations, rice production, and farming costs. The results of the research are expected to produce additional information for the government and implementers of rice farming insurance regarding the condition of farmers in the field, so that it can be improved in the future