6 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
Strength outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Three strategies for creating probabilistic forecast outlooks for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are compared. One is subjective and is currently used by the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce official ENSO outlooks. A second is purely objective and is based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME).Anew third strategy is proposed in which the forecaster only provides the expected value of the Niño-3.4 index, and then categorical probabilities are objectively determined based on past skill. The new strategy results in more confident probabilities compared to the subjective approach and higher verification scores, while avoiding the significant forecast busts that sometimes afflict the NMME-based objective approach. The higher verification scores of the new strategy appear to result from the added value that forecasters provide in predicting the mean, combined with more reliable representations of uncertainty, which is difficult to represent because forecasters often assume less confidence than is justified. Moreover, the new approach can produce higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts that include ENSO strength information and that are difficult, if not impossible, for forecasters to produce. To illustrate, a nine-category ENSO outlook based on the new strategy is assessed and found to be skillful. The new approach can be applied to other outlooks where users desire higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts, including the extremes
Data assimilation using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean
Demonstrating the Validity of a Wildfire DDDAS
Abstract. We report on an ongoing effort to build a Dynamic Dat
Towards early diagnosis of dementia using a virtual environment
NoDementia is one of the biggest fears in the process of ageing and the most common cause is Alzheimer’s Disease(AD). Topographic disorientation is an early manifestation of AD and threatens activities of their daily lives. Finding solutions are essential in the early diagnosis of dementia if medical treatment and healthcare services to be deployed in time. Recent studies have shown that people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may convert to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) over time although not all MCI cases progress to dementia. The diagnosis of MCI is important to allow prompt treatment and disease management before the neurons degenerate to a stage beyond repair. Hence, the ability to obtain a method of identifying MCI is of great importance. This work presents a virtual environment which can be utilized as a quick, easy and friendly tool for early diagnosis of dementia. This tool was developed with an aim to investigate cognitive functioning in a group of healthy elderly and those with MCI. It focuses on the task of following a route, since Topographical Disorientation (TD) is common in AD. The results shows that this novel simulation was able to predict with about 90% overall accuracy using weighting function proposed to discriminate between MCI and healthy elderly