Adaptive Agent Modeling as a Tool for Trade and Development Theory

This paper makes use of an adaptive agent framework to extend traditional models of comparative advantage in international trade, illustrating several cases which make theoretical room for industrial policy and the regulation of trade. Using an agent based implementation of the Hecksher-Ohlin trade model, the paper confirms Samuelson’s 2004 result demonstrating that the principle of comparative advantage does not ensure that technological progress in one country benefits its trading partners. It goes on to demonstrate that the presence of increasing returns leads to a situation with multiple equilibra, where free market trading policies can not be relied on to deliver an outcome which is efficient or equitable, with first movers in development enjoying permanent advantage over later developing nations. Finally, the paper examines the impact of relaxation of the Ricardian assumption of capital immobility on the principle of comparative advantage. It finds that the dynamics of factor trade are radically different from the dynamics of trade in goods and that factor mobility converts a regime of comparative advantage into a regime of absolute advantage, thus obviating the reassuring equity results which stem from comparative advantage.Agent-based modeling; comparative advantage; increasing returns; international trade

Adaptive Agent Modeling in a Policy Context

This dissertation examines the utility of adaptive agent modeling (also referred to as agent-based modeling or individual based modeling) as a tool in public policy research. It uses the adaptive agent technique to produce useful results in three diverse areas. It demonstrates that the adaptive agent framework can be used to extend traditional models of comparative advantage in international trade, showing that the presence of increasing returns to scale in some industries shifts the basis of comparative advantage arguments, making room for industrial policy and the regulation of trade. Next, the dissertation demonstrates that the size distribution of cities within nations, generally thought to approximate the "Zipf" distribution, can be reproduced using a simple agent-based model. This model produces insights into the evolution of the distribution as well as departures from it especially in France and Russia. This understanding of urban dynamics has implications for easing the structural transition of the Russian economy and for designing policies to reduce the size of megacities in the developing world. The dissertation goes on to examine individual level data from the Guatemalan civil war from an adaptive agent modeling perspective. It finds several novel patterns in the data which may serve as benchmarks for adaptive agent modeling efforts and suggests avenues by which existing conflict models might be brought into closer accord with the data. The dissertation concludes that adaptive agent modeling is useful in a policy context because it allows quantitative work to be done while relaxing some of the unrealistic assumptions which are often required to gain analytical traction using traditional methods. The method is found to be particularly useful in situations where path dependence, heterogeneity of actors, bounded rationality, and imperfect information are significant features of the system under examination. The individual based nature of the method is also found to be well suited to assessing distributional impacts of changes in process or policy

Presentation, management, and outcomes of older compared to younger adults with hospital-acquired bloodstream infections in the intensive care unit: a multicenter cohort study

Purpose: Older adults admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) usually have fair baseline functional capacity, yet their age and frailty may compromise their management. We compared the characteristics and management of older (≥ 75 years) versus younger adults hospitalized in ICU with hospital-acquired bloodstream infection (HA-BSI). Methods: Nested cohort study within the EUROBACT-2 database, a multinational prospective cohort study including adults (≥ 18 years) hospitalized in the ICU during 2019-2021. We compared older versus younger adults in terms of infection characteristics (clinical signs and symptoms, source, and microbiological data), management (imaging, source control, antimicrobial therapy), and outcomes (28-day mortality and hospital discharge). Results: Among 2111 individuals hospitalized in 219 ICUs with HA-BSI, 563 (27%) were ≥ 75 years old. Compared to younger patients, these individuals had higher comorbidity score and lower functional capacity; presented more often with a pulmonary, urinary, or unknown HA-BSI source; and had lower heart rate, blood pressure and temperature at presentation. Pathogens and resistance rates were similar in both groups. Differences in management included mainly lower rates of effective source control achievement among aged individuals. Older adults also had significantly higher day-28 mortality (50% versus 34%, p < 0.001), and lower rates of discharge from hospital (12% versus 20%, p < 0.001) by this time. Conclusions: Older adults with HA-BSI hospitalized in ICU have different baseline characteristics and source of infection compared to younger patients. Management of older adults differs mainly by lower probability to achieve source control. This should be targeted to improve outcomes among older ICU patients

The role of centre and country factors on process and outcome indicators in critically ill patients with hospital-acquired bloodstream infections

Purpose: The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the associations between centre/country-based factors and two important process and outcome indicators in patients with hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HABSI). Methods: We used data on HABSI from the prospective EUROBACT-2 study to evaluate the associations between centre/country factors on a process or an outcome indicator: adequacy of antimicrobial therapy within the first 24 h or 28-day mortality, respectively. Mixed logistical models with clustering by centre identified factors associated with both indicators. Results: Two thousand two hundred nine patients from two hundred one intensive care units (ICUs) were included in forty-seven countries. Overall, 51% (n = 1128) of patients received an adequate antimicrobial therapy and the 28-day mortality was 38% (n = 839). The availability of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for aminoglycosides everyday [odds ratio (OR) 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.14] or within a few hours (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.34-2.38), surveillance cultures for multidrug-resistant organism carriage performed weekly (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.09-1.93), and increasing Human Development Index (HDI) values were associated with adequate antimicrobial therapy. The presence of intermediate care beds (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.84), TDM for aminoglycoside available everyday (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.44-1.00) or within a few hours (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.37-0.70), 24/7 consultation of clinical pharmacists (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.95), percentage of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) between 10% and 25% in the ICU (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.00-2.80), and decreasing HDI values were associated with 28-day mortality. Conclusion: Centre/country factors should be targeted for future interventions to improve management strategies and outcome of HABSI in ICU patients

Epidemiology and outcomes of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections in intensive care unit patients: the EUROBACT-2 international cohort study

Purpose In the critically ill, hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HA-BSI) are associated with significant mortality. Granular data are required for optimizing management, and developing guidelines and clinical trials. Methods We carried out a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) with HA-BSI treated in intensive care units (ICUs) between June 2019 and February 2021. Results 2600 patients from 333 ICUs in 52 countries were included. 78% HA-BSI were ICU-acquired. Median Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was 8 [IQR 5; 11] at HA-BSI diagnosis. Most frequent sources of infection included pneumonia (26.7%) and intravascular catheters (26.4%). Most frequent pathogens were Gram-negative bacteria (59.0%), predominantly Klebsiella spp. (27.9%), Acinetobacter spp. (20.3%), Escherichia coli (15.8%), and Pseudomonas spp. (14.3%). Carbapenem resistance was present in 37.8%, 84.6%, 7.4%, and 33.2%, respectively. Difficult-to-treat resistance (DTR) was present in 23.5% and pan-drug resistance in 1.5%. Antimicrobial therapy was deemed adequate within 24 h for 51.5%. Antimicrobial resistance was associated with longer delays to adequate antimicrobial therapy. Source control was needed in 52.5% but not achieved in 18.2%. Mortality was 37.1%, and only 16.1% had been discharged alive from hospital by day-28. Conclusions HA-BSI was frequently caused by Gram-negative, carbapenem-resistant and DTR pathogens. Antimicrobial resistance led to delays in adequate antimicrobial therapy. Mortality was high, and at day-28 only a minority of the patients were discharged alive from the hospital. Prevention of antimicrobial resistance and focusing on adequate antimicrobial therapy and source control are important to optimize patient management and outcomes