Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: an iterative approach

Energy system transition research has been experimenting with the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis due to the increased articulation it provides. Current approaches tend to be heavily biased by qualitative or quantitative methodologies, and more often are aimed toward a single academic discipline. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary methodology for the elaboration of energy system socio-technical scenarios, applied here to the low carbon transition of the UK. An iterative approach was used to produce quantitative descriptions of the UK's energy transition out to 2050, building on qualitative storylines or narratives that had been developed through the formal application of a transition pathways approach. The combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis in this way subsequently formed the cornerstone of wider interdisciplinary research, helping to harmonise assumptions, and facilitating ‘whole systems’ thinking. The methodology pulls on niche expertise of contributors to map and investigate the governance and technological landscape of a system change. Initial inconsistencies were found between energy supply and demand and addressed, the treatment of gas generation, capacity factors, total installed generating capacity and installation rates of renewables employed. Knowledge gaps relating to the operation of combined heat and power, sources of waste heat and future fuel sources were also investigated. Adopting the methodological approach to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis resulted in a far more comprehensive elaboration than previously, providing a stronger basis for wider research, and for deducing more robust insights for decision-making. It is asserted that this formal process helps build robust future scenarios not only for socio political storylines but also for the quantification of any qualitative storyline

Realising Transition Pathways Working Paper 2013/3

<p>Working Paper -"The UK low carbon energy transition: prospects and challenges"</p

Divergence of Trends in US and UK Aggregate Exergy Efficiencies 1960–2010

National exergy efficiency analysis relates the quality of primary energy inputs to an economy with end useful work in sectoral energy uses such as transport, heat and electrical devices. This approach has been used by a range of authors to explore insights to macroscale energy systems and linkages with economic growth. However, these analyses use a variety of calculation methods with sometimes coarse assumptions, inhibiting comparisons. Therefore, building on previous studies, this paper first contributes toward a common useful work accounting framework, by developing more refined methodological techniques for electricity end use and transport exergy efficiencies. Second, to test this more consistent and granular approach, these advances are applied to the US and UK for 1960 to 2010. The results reveal divergent aggregate exergy efficiencies: US efficiency remains stable at around 11%, while UK efficiency rises from 9% to 15%. The US efficiency stagnation is due to “efficiency dilution”, where structural shifts to lower efficiency consumption (e.g., air-conditioning) outweigh device-level efficiency gains. The results demonstrate this is an important area of research, with consequent implications for national energy efficiency policies