12,022 research outputs found
Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates for Sieve Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression
We study the problem of nonparametric regression when the regressor is
endogenous, which is an important nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV)
regression in econometrics and a difficult ill-posed inverse problem with
unknown operator in statistics. We first establish a general upper bound on the
sup-norm (uniform) convergence rate of a sieve estimator, allowing for
endogenous regressors and weakly dependent data. This result leads to the
optimal sup-norm convergence rates for spline and wavelet least squares
regression estimators under weakly dependent data and heavy-tailed error terms.
This upper bound also yields the sup-norm convergence rates for sieve NPIV
estimators under i.i.d. data: the rates coincide with the known optimal
-norm rates for severely ill-posed problems, and are power of
slower than the optimal -norm rates for mildly ill-posed problems. We then
establish the minimax risk lower bound in sup-norm loss, which coincides with
our upper bounds on sup-norm rates for the spline and wavelet sieve NPIV
estimators. This sup-norm rate optimality provides another justification for
the wide application of sieve NPIV estimators. Useful results on
weakly-dependent random matrices are also provided
Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates and Asymptotic Normality for Series Estimators Under Weak Dependence and Weak Conditions
We show that spline and wavelet series regression estimators for weakly
dependent regressors attain the optimal uniform (i.e. sup-norm) convergence
rate of Stone (1982), where is the number of
regressors and is the smoothness of the regression function. The optimal
rate is achieved even for heavy-tailed martingale difference errors with finite
th absolute moment for . We also establish the asymptotic
normality of t statistics for possibly nonlinear, irregular functionals of the
conditional mean function under weak conditions. The results are proved by
deriving a new exponential inequality for sums of weakly dependent random
matrices, which is of independent interest.Comment: forthcoming in Journal of Econometric
Optimal Sup-norm Rates and Uniform Inference on Nonlinear Functionals of Nonparametric IV Regression
This paper makes several important contributions to the literature about
nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation and inference on a
structural function and its functionals. First, we derive sup-norm
convergence rates for computationally simple sieve NPIV (series 2SLS)
estimators of and its derivatives. Second, we derive a lower bound that
describes the best possible (minimax) sup-norm rates of estimating and
its derivatives, and show that the sieve NPIV estimator can attain the minimax
rates when is approximated via a spline or wavelet sieve. Our optimal
sup-norm rates surprisingly coincide with the optimal root-mean-squared rates
for severely ill-posed problems, and are only a logarithmic factor slower than
the optimal root-mean-squared rates for mildly ill-posed problems. Third, we
use our sup-norm rates to establish the uniform Gaussian process strong
approximations and the score bootstrap uniform confidence bands (UCBs) for
collections of nonlinear functionals of under primitive conditions,
allowing for mildly and severely ill-posed problems. Fourth, as applications,
we obtain the first asymptotic pointwise and uniform inference results for
plug-in sieve t-statistics of exact consumer surplus (CS) and deadweight loss
(DL) welfare functionals under low-level conditions when demand is estimated
via sieve NPIV. Empiricists could read our real data application of UCBs for
exact CS and DL functionals of gasoline demand that reveals interesting
patterns and is applicable to other markets.Comment: This paper is a major extension of Sections 2 and 3 of our Cowles
Foundation Discussion Paper CFDP1923, Cemmap Working Paper CWP56/13 and arXiv
preprint arXiv:1311.0412 [math.ST]. Section 3 of the previous version of this
paper (dealing with data-driven choice of sieve dimension) is currently being
revised as a separate pape
Monte Carlo Confidence Sets for Identified Sets
In complicated/nonlinear parametric models, it is generally hard to know
whether the model parameters are point identified. We provide computationally
attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of
full parameters and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a
vector of moment equalities or inequalities. These CSs are based on level sets
of optimal sample criterion functions (such as likelihood or optimally-weighted
or continuously-updated GMM criterions). The level sets are constructed using
cutoffs that are computed via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations directly from the
quasi-posterior distributions of the criterions. We establish new Bernstein-von
Mises (or Bayesian Wilks) type theorems for the quasi-posterior distributions
of the quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) and profile QLR in partially-identified
regular models and some non-regular models. These results imply that our MC CSs
have exact asymptotic frequentist coverage for identified sets of full
parameters and of subvectors in partially-identified regular models, and have
valid but potentially conservative coverage in models with reduced-form
parameters on the boundary. Our MC CSs for identified sets of subvectors are
shown to have exact asymptotic coverage in models with singularities. We also
provide results on uniform validity of our CSs over classes of DGPs that
include point and partially identified models. We demonstrate good
finite-sample coverage properties of our procedures in two simulation
experiments. Finally, our procedures are applied to two non-trivial empirical
examples: an airline entry game and a model of trade flows
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